2023 NFL Underdog Fantasy Player Totals. Season Long Props to Target

Underdog Fantasy just released a ton of season-long props for their pick’em contests and the early lines have our attention.

Early season-long NFL props can often offer us some great opportunities for pick’em, as the lack of clarity about upcoming player roles and offensive tendencies can mean less efficient lines. A lot of these lines are subject to change, but as of now there are a handful of props that stand out as great targets for pick’em tickets on Underdog.

Overall, if you have a strong stance on a player’s prospects for 2023-24, this is a great time to scout out a couple of targets and see if you can profit off your conviction.

And if you don't have a strong conviction, head over to the Fantasy Life Projections page to compare our season-long player totals to these lines on Underdog Fantasy.

How do Underdog Pick’em contests work?

If you’re new to Underdog, the pick’em contest essentially acts like any regular parlay bet. To play pick’em, you must combine at least two props and can make tickets that have up to five selections. Each type of pick’em entry has a specific payout attached to it, with the payouts getting significantly larger every time you add a prop.

Some things we’ll be looking for as we put together our selections together for the season-long NFL lines include:

Looking for receivers don’t have strong competition for targets or touches (barren depth charts)
Players who have incurred a past injury (or have a history of injury issues)—which has caused their season-long line to dip into value territory
RBs coming off big workloads and RBs who may have added competition for touches in 2023-24 (vs. last season)
Understanding run/pass projections for each NFL offense (which teams want to establish the run vs. who is trying to be the greatest show on turf)

One final note: While you can certainly put together all five of our selections into one massive ticket (and chase that sweet 20-1 payout), it’s also perfectly fine to pick and choose and make smaller tickets with 2-4 selections as well (or even mix in some of your own). Risk tolerance and how you approach making pick’ems is completely up to you.

Mark Andrews higher than 800.5 yards

Mark Andrews's receiving total right now on Underdog is a full 150 yards lower than it was on various sportsbooks last August. That’s significant, as the veteran has gone over this current mark in three of the past four seasons and will be working with a new offensive coordinator in Todd Monken who wants to run a more up-tempo, passing-oriented offense.

Andrews will have added competition for targets, but if anything, these new WRs will likely be more of a threat to take targets away from each other than Andrews, who operated as a de facto WR1 in 2023, in much the same way Travis Kelce did for the Chiefs.

Even if his target share dips a little, the Ravens under Monken figure to run a lot more plays in 2023, and their offense will almost certainly see a decent uptick in pass play percentage.

Andrews has gone over this mark easily in each of the last three seasons where he’s played 15 games or more, and his current 2023 line screams “overcorrection.” His early season-long projections on Fantasy Life have him set for over 830.0 yards in 2023, and that gives us a solid 30-yard edge to work with on an over.

It’s a great spot to buy into some fear and take the bullish approach on one of the best pass-catching TEs in the league.

Rachaad White lower than 800.5 yards

Rachaad White’s season-long rushing prop is like the apple that looks shiny and perfect on the outside, but when you bite into it, the core may actually be a little rotten.

On the surface, the lack of competition for touches and the fact that the Buccaneers didn’t add anyone of significance at the draft seems to make White a lock for a lot of early down touches in 2023. That’s certainly one possible outcome, but even if that rosy proclamation does come true, there are issues lurking.

Dec 11, 2022; Santa Clara, California, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White (29) is tackled by San Francisco 49ers defensive end Nick Bosa (97) in the fourth quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

The rookie was one of the least efficient backs last season, ranking 33rd in EPA per rush (-0.11) (among 44 backs with 100 carries or more) and was never able to pull the starting position away from declining veteran Leonard Fournette.

It’s also telling that when he was interviewed recently, White talked about his versatility as a receiver and the fact that the new playbook involved “a lot of empty” (no-RB sets). White may end up excelling as a pass-catcher, but hearing that there will be a lot of empty backfield sets isn’t encouraging for his rushing totals.

The Bucs are also great candidates to potentially add another man to their RB rotation, and the current RB free agent market is teeming with veterans who would make for a great early down complement to White.

Also don’t count out UDFA Sean Tucker, who the Buccaneers quietly signed after the draft. Tucker went undrafted due to a medical issue but has strong metrics and was a hugely productive rusher in college.

There is no doubting that White has a path to going over on this 800.5 yard total, but it’s one filled with numerous roadblocks, including his own deficiencies as a rusher. With this line likely to go nowhere but down on a potential free agent signing, or a Sean Tucker camp uprising, hitting the under now is definitely preferred.

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Deshaun Watson lower than 26.5 passing TDs

This number seems absurdly optimistic. DeShaun Watson was, for all intents and purposes, an abject disaster in the seven games he started for Cleveland in 2022. Watson threw for just 7.0 TDs in six starts, while posting a 38.3 QBR rating and averaging a career-worst 6.0 yards per pass attempt.

The last stat is significant as a lot of Watson’s past TD performance came off long plays. He led the league in deep ball attempts of 20+ yards in 2020—the year he threw for 33 TDs—and averaged 4.31 attempts of 20+ yards per game that season.

That’s a far cry from the six games he played for Cleveland last season where he averaged just 2.0 passes per game of 20+ yards.

Watson could certainly show vast improvement in 2023, and the benefit of the doubt argument is a valid one, but there are other factors that push toward his current 26.5 TD total being a great under play.

Watson’s past life in Houston had him in the confines of a domed stadium for at least 10 games a season, but playing in the AFC North now will have him playing outdoors in Cleveland, Baltimore, Cincinnati, or Denver for seven of the final nine games of 2023.

Lots of potentially bad weather and being on a team who has a legit bulldozer in Nick Chubb to lean on in cold weather games isn’t a great formula for Watson to be posting a ton of multiple-TD games.

When you add the fact that Watson can be a high profile runner at times—and was also one of the most sacked quarterbacks in the league last season (per game)—then heightened injury potential also needs to be taken into account.

Watson’s early season projection on Fantasy Life has him at just 23.4 passing TDs, and for him to really bust out and go over this 26.5 mark, he'll likely need everything to go perfectly for him 2023. The easier and more compelling move is simply to take the under on what looks to be one of the more inflated totals on the board.

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Treylon Burks higher than 825.5 receiving yards

Anticipating breakout seasons can be tricky, but for pick’em purposes, taking advantage of some depressed lines on players without a ton of NFL history can also be extremely profitable. Treylon Burks is a player the Fantasy Life projections are bullish on for 2023, and one I don’t mind taking a shot with in a season-long over.

The Titans WR showed elite tendencies in many areas last year, including targets per route run and yards gained after the catch.

As @SWallace_FF pointed out in an early season dynasty report, Burks also now heads into the new season with little to worry about in terms of target competition after the Titans released Robert Woods and failed to add anyone of significance at the draft.

The counterargument to a Burks over, of course, is that the Titans remain committed to a run-first approach that will likely push them to again be one of the lowest volume passing teams in the NFL.

The lack of competition for targets and Burks’s own elite metrics seemingly bypass these concerns, as does the fact that the Titans had four WRs clear the 825.5 yard mark easily between 2019 and 2021.

It’s also worth noting that we are likely getting at least a small injury discount in the 825.5 total as Burks may have approached this number in 2022 (or even exceeded it) had he played the entire 17 games. It’s enough to lean upside in this scenario and take the over on a player who may be on the verge of a true breakout campaign.

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Daniel Jones higher than 17.5 passing TDs

Unlike Deshaun Watson’s TD total on Underdog—which seems to be accounting for tons of positive regression in 2023—the 17.5 passing TD total on Daniel Jones seems to be predicting almost no extra upside for the fifth-year player in the new season.

Nov 24, 2022; Arlington, Texas, USA; New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones (8) throws the ball against the Dallas Cowboys during the second half of the game between the Cowboys and the Giants at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

While he only threw for 15 passing TDs in 2022, Jones is coming off a very successful year where he posted a career-best QBR and the second-lowest INT rate of his career.

The Giants ranked 11th in rush play percentage in 2022, but their moves over the offseason make it quite clear that they are interested in upgrading the production of their passing game.

Jalin Hyatt is a legitimate track star and is expected to give Jones more chances at deep TDs, while the 6’6" Darren Waller should increase the rate at which the Giants choose to pass the ball inside the 20-yard line.

It’s also worth noting that while working with Brian Daboll in Buffalo, Josh Allen saw both his TD production, yards per attempt, and pass attempts go up significantly in each of his first three seasons.

Josh Allen	2018 (11 games)	2019	2020
Pass Attempts	320	461	572
TDs	10	20	37
Yards per attempt	6.5	6.7	7.9

Even if Jones doesn’t reach the heights that Allen did, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Daboll put more on Jones’s shoulders in year two and for him to show similar progression in his passing production.

Jones came close to going over on this number in 2022, and for 2023 he’s projecting for over 19.0 passing TDs in the Fantasy Life early season-long projections. With multiple new weapons to work with, even a modest improvement in passing volume should see him go over this 17.5 number (and potentially obliterate it).

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