Pete Overzet breaks down early best ball draft strategies after the NFL Draft, looking at value in veterans, and how rookie bargains aren't as plentiful.

With the NFL Draft in the books, Underdog unleashed a tidal wave of new contests in the lobby on Monday. 

And despite the start of the 2025 season still being four-plus months away, drafters lined up in droves to fire off their first drafts of Hot Best Ball Summer.

I've participated in a handful myself and want to share some early takeaways from the new ADP landscape that has been altered by the NFL Draft.

Below are five key things to keep in mind when drafting over the coming days…

Rookies Values Are Hard To Come By

The biggest attraction for drafting in the opening days of the contest is to pick off some mispriced players who have seen their outlook meaningfully change because of the NFL Draft.

Unfortunately, I have some bad news on that front … there isn't a ton of rookie value to be had in these early drafts compared to previous years. I think there are three main reasons for that:

1. The pre-NFL Draft ADP was already pretty efficient. A lot of the players we were already excited about—Omarion Hampton, Tetairoa McMillan, TreVeyon Henderson, and Quinshon Judkins, to name a few—have barely seen a price change. This speaks to how sharp the market was at understanding projected draft capital and the talent profiles for these premium rookies. The market had essentially already skated to where the puck was going to be.
2. We didn't get as many clean landing spots as we initially hoped for. Teams like the Cowboys, Bears, Commanders, and Chiefs all chose not to invest significant draft capital at the RB position. Had any of those teams taken an RB on Day 2, there would have been an opportunity for more ADP jumps.
3. The people drafting now know what they are doing. There are very few secrets anymore. Even though RJ Harvey entered Monday with an ADP in the 150s, drafters were well aware of his true value and happily selected him in Rounds 5-7 in most drafts. Thanks to sharp ranks, a firehose of content, and a collective best ball hivemind, there were scant opportunities to sneak a value past draft rooms that featured way more sharps than fish. 

That said, there are a few rookies who I think still represent some nice values:

• Travis Hunter—I've spilled plenty of ink on him already and made a video predicting this exact outcome, but I would still gobble up as much 5th-round Hunter as you can. He's destined for the 3/4 turn by the end of the summer.
• Bhayshul Tuten—Tuten didn't get the Day 2 capital we were hoping for, but this is a sneaky-good situation in Jacksonville. GM James Gladstone specifically highlighted their targeting of athletes who can make big plays in this draft, and I think Tuten's stock is going to slowly rise over the course of the summer. I'd make him a primary target for as long as he's in the 120s. 
• Jack Bech—Bech got second-round draft capital, but can still be had in the 12th-round of drafts. The landing spot is OK, not great, but you want to attack the discount on him compared to other Round 2 WRs like Jayden Higgins.

The Real Values Are These Boring Veterans

Trust me, I get it. No one wants to hop in a draft right now to scoop up some slight values on boring veterans, but that's unfortunately the only fresh produce available right now for value hounds. 

I hit on three big veteran winners in Tuesday's newsletter–Chase Brown, D'Andre Swift, and Brian Robinson–but I'll share a few more to target while the market slowly catches up to their new value proposition.

• Isiah Pacheco—I hate to say it because I really don't like drafting Pacheco, but the draft broke perfectly for him. Elijah Mitchell and the rookie Brashard Smith still lurk, but Pacheco is going to get another crack at being the lead back.
• Trey Benson—I thought there was a chance the Cardinals might make another RB investment in this draft, but Benson's role looks secure as the clear handcuff behind the 29-year-old James Conner.
• Javonte Williams—It seems hard to believe after we did this exact same song and dance with Rico Dowdle last year, but once again the starting Cowboys RB is available in the double-digit rounds (12-round, specifically). I prefer the rookie Jayden Blue cost-adjusted, but Williams deserves some stabs.

Beware Of These Falling Knives

Arguably more important than targeting risers who will be more expensive in the coming weeks is avoiding the landmines who haven't seen their ADP drop enough. 

Here are a handful of players I wouldn't touch in drafts right now until the price bottoms out:

• DJ Moore and Rome Odunze—Both Bears WRs need to fall a good bit from their lofty pre-Draft ADPs after Ben Johnson hand-selected Colston Loveland and Luther Burden. 
• Tyrone Tracy—As an RB who succeeds in short-yardage and passing situations, Cam Skattebo is going to be a big problem for Tracy. I'd wait until they flip each other in ADP before grabbing any more Tracy. 
• Jalen McMillan—he Emeka Egbuka pick nuked McMillan's value. He needs to slide another 30+ picks into the 150s before he's a viable pick. We are back to where we were last year with him—a speculative, contingent-upside bet who will need an injury (or two) to be relevant.
• Christian Kirk—Like McMillan, Kirk's value got destroyed by the addition of both Iowa St. WRs in Rounds 2 and 3. Kirk could have some easy standalone value if Jaylin Noel is slow to progress, but you want to be paying for that kind of production in the 150s, not the early 100s.
• Blake Corum—Unlike Benson, the Rams added a pretty intriguing rookie in Jarquez Hunter which muddies Corum's clear RB2 status behind Kyren Williams. Corum wasn't prohibitively expensive before, but there are better handcuff targets in this late range now like Will Shipley, Roschon Johnson, MarShawn Lloyd, etc. 

2 Cliffs To Be Mindful Of In Early Drafts

One dynamic that has persisted from the pre-Draft contests is the big cliffs at both QB and WR.

The WR Cliff (at the end of Round 8). After Darnell Mooney comes off the board, we enter an extremely fragile territory for WRs who are either way overvalued or rookies who are screaming up into a very efficient (and frothy) range:

I really dislike my teams when I don't have 5 WRs before Round 9. There are certainly still targets late—like the aforementioned Bech—but you want to be finishing a room with a guy like Bech, not solidifying one. 

The QB Cliff (after Round 13). After Bryce Young and Geno Smith come off the board, there are no guaranteed 17-game starters. You can certainly get away with Jaxson Dart or Jalen Milroe as an upside QB3, but you want to have two QBs before this range:

It's particularly important to lock up QBs in Rounds 10-12 because they fly off the shelf fast. Almost every draft I'm in follows a similar trajectory where the queue looks loaded with viable QBs only for 10 of them to get taken within a tight window.

Be Careful Before The NFL Schedule Is Released

When drafting this early, there are a ton of landmines to avoid in addition to the falling knives we discussed earlier.

Here are two things to pay attention to:

1. Potential bye week issues. The NFL schedule will be released on May 14th, at which point we will know the bye weeks for every team. Until then, you run the risk of loading up on too many bye weeks at an individual position. How to handle: Break ties in favor of 3QB and 3TE teams right now to avoid bye-week zeros. 
2. Players without guaranteed roles. Avoiding zeroes when drafting early is really important. How to handle. Avoid guys with job-security issues, specifically fringe QBs, backup RBs who might be the RB3 instead of the RB2, and rookies who were taken without little draft capital attached.

Good luck out there. It's going to be a great summer. 

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