Best Ball Late Round Targets. Players you need to draft
Chris Allen breaks down how to identify late-round fantasy values in best ball at different skill positions.
Drafters see the late rounds as a time to throw darts. Or, maybe even as a time to zone out. They already got their studs and made their Week 17 stacks. You won’t find any “What If Mack Hollins Is The Guy You Need?” think pieces out there.
But what if a guy like Mack Hollins was the one you needed?
I found all players outperforming their regular-season ADP using Best Ball Mania II and III data. Injuries and trades are a common theme, but there’s an archetype across the skill positions that can help us make better decisions as we close out our drafts.
Notes on process
The easy part was collecting and comparing the ADPs to the end-year results. But necessary context had to be applied. Jimmy Garoppolo had to step in (the first time) after Trey Lance suffered a knee sprain in Week 5 of the ’21 season. Ryan Fitzpatrick’s season/career-ending hip injury gave us Taylor Heinicke. So our samples at QB are limited.
| Three of the four signal callers had at least two pass catchers with a top-100 ADP | all four had one rusher in the top 100 | Chuba Hubbard | Raheem Mostert | Elijah Mitchell | every RB on the list had at least two rushers from their team drafted ahead of them | Jerick McKinnon | DeSean Jackson | Twelve of the 18 WRs had an average target depth of 10 or more yards | Hunter Renfrow | Allen Lazard | double your first deposit of up to $100 when you create a new account | Terry McLaurin | Jahan Dotson | Curtis Samuel | Logan Thomas | That’s where Eric Bienemy makes his mark. | Patrick Mahomes | Desmond Ridder | Miles Sanders | Chuba Hubbard | Christian McCaffrey | Boston Scott | Kenneth Gainwell | Breece Hall | Michael Carter | Zonovan Knight | But the key takeaway was the touches he earned. | James Robinson | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | Kyren Williams | Tyquan Thornton | Mac Jones | Jakobi Meyers | Laviska Shenault | Terrace Marshall | D.J. Moore |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15.2% | 10.8% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Red Zone | 16.1% | 6.5% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Obvious Passing Downs | 14.5% | 9.2% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Deep (20+ air yards) | 19.0% | 2.4% |
Surprisingly, Marshall spent only 9.0% of his snaps from the slot. After recording a 47.1% interior route rate at LSU, he played as the perimeter WR for the Panthers in ’22. Regardless, he still earned more looks than the former Jaguars receiver, while averaging a 12.7-yard target depth.
The Panthers’ passing attack is nebulous. Jonathan Mingo could earn top billing, but Marshall could replicate DJ Chark’s projected role or move back to the inside. Despite the crowded skill group, Marshall has shown the ability to produce ahead of his current ADP.
Other Options: Marvin Jones (208.5), Deonte Harty (211.3), Olamide Zaccheaus (215.9)
You can start drafting these late-round values on Underdog Fantasy, where you get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you create a new account. Sign up below and start drafting today!
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