Fantasy ADP Check In: Biggest Potential Fallers
Ian Hartitz identifies players who have seen a massive drop in Underdog ADP year-over-year and analyzes whether or not you should buy them in Fantasy Football.
Fantasy football average draft position (ADP) changes dramatically over the course of 365 days.
And for good reason: Drafters should adjust to the moving landscape and make the best decisions possible based on the new information at hand.
Of course, it’s not like we are all exactly great at consistently predicting the future. Projections go wrong, and the injury gods do their thing: There’s a fine line between adjusting the ranks and overreacting to every tidbit of news.
This is why I like to take annual looks at who the biggest movers in ADP from last offseason to the present day are in an effort to be really sure that the players getting the most or least love truly deserve it.
The following four players stand out among the biggest fallers as potential values ahead of the 2023 season.
Russell Wilson, QB - Broncos
- 2022 ADP: QB9, pick 79
- 2023 ADP: QB18, pick 132
Obviously, the “Broncos country, let’s ride” era got off to a bad start in 2022, but a look at 2023 Vegas team totals indicates that a rebound of sorts could be on the horizon.
Rising from the league’s 32nd-ranked scoring offense to a middle-of-the-pack unit still isn’t ideal in fantasy land; just realize this time having faith in Russ and company is also having faith in longtime offensive mastermind Sean Payton.
James Conner, RB - Cardinals
- 2022 ADP: RB15, pick 35
- 2023 ADP: RB28, pick 88
The 28-year-old veteran is one of just six RBs to post top-12 fantasy finishes in PPR points per game in both 2021 and 2022; Conner has made up for, at times, meh efficiency with scoring upside and true three-down ability.
Of course, both of those variables aren’t guaranteed inside of a new offense that could flirt with the league’s very worst units as long as Kyler Murray (knee) remains sidelined.
But the Cardinals’ lack of offseason moves at the position still leaves Conner sitting pretty as one of fantasy’s cheapest potential workhorse backs.
Hunter Henry, TE - Patriots
- 2022 ADP: TE16, pick 152
- 2023 ADP: TE33, pick 223
Henry has rocketed down draft boards after the Patriots signed former Dolphins “TE” Mike Gesicki in free agency.
Never mind that the Penn State product has always been more of a WR than a TE and sure seems to be viewed that way in New England. Regardless, he’ll likely play far more snaps as a true receiver than 2021-22 No. 2 TE Jonnu Smith did.
One year removed from a productive 50-603-9 campaign that produced an overall PPR TE10 finish, Henry profiles as one of the cheapest available starting TEs with at least a decent level of receiving upside available.
Gabriel Davis, WR - Bills
- 2022 ADP: WR17, pick 37
- 2023 ADP: WR41, pick 78
Don’t hate the player, hate the ADP.
Still very much locked in as the Bills’ No. 2 WR in an offense led by Josh f*cking Allen, Davis is a prime example of a post-hype buy thanks to the reality that he’s being priced far closer to his floor than his ceiling.
Looking to buy into these four players at their discounted ADPs? Sign up for Underdog Fantasy below to get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 and start drafting today!
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