NFL offenses that score a lot of points are great for the fantasy football business because the involved players are accordingly subjected to more scoring opportunities than they might be in a less prolific environment.

Of course, federal law limits more than one football being used at a time during any given play (thanks, Obama).

Shocking revelations here, I know.

My main point: Fantasy managers obviously want to target the best offenses possible, but it’s also important to be mindful of potential volume limitations inside of groups with multiple parties worthy of high-end touch counts.

Some of the league’s top passing attacks like the Eagles, Bengals, and Dolphins have multiple WRs ranked inside the position’s top-15 players—but how often does an elite offense enable multiple high-end fantasy assets?

On the other side of the coin: Committee backfields have become the new norm inside offenses of all shapes and sizes—but do they regularly enable more than one highly fantasy-relevant factor?

Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase (1), center, is congratulated by Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tyler Boyd (83), Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon (28) and Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins (85) after a touchdown catch in the first quarter during an NFL divisional playoff football game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Buffalo Bills, Sunday, Jan. 22, 2023, at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y. Cincinnati Bengals At Buffalo Bills Afc Divisional Jan 22 0190

I pulled the fantasy finishes at every position in PPR points per game (min. 8 games) from the past 10 years before performing some Excel witchcraft to see just how often certain high-end combinations occurred inside of the same offense.

Multiple top-24 WRs in one offense happen more than you think

• Average per season: 4.4
• Median: 4.5

This feat hasn’t been all that rare—especially in recent history with at least five such examples occurring in each of the last five seasons.

Intriguingly, these offenses didn’t have any problems also producing top-tier fantasy QBs and RBs, although the additional presence of top-12 TEs has been pretty rare.

• Top-12 QBs among the 44 qualified offenses: 31 (70.5%)
• Top-24 RBs: 35 (79.5%)
• Top-12 TEs: 7 (15.9%)

All three of these rates are intriguing when considering that the expected totals for QBs (16.5), RBs (33), and TEs (16.5) in the sample are each fairly far removed from each group.

The easiest explanation is that an offense has to be pretty damn good to have enough production to support these two top-24 WRs in the first place. This is backed up by the reality that the average scoring rank from these 44 offenses was a stellar 10.2.

There are currently seven offenses with at least one WR with an ADP inside the position’s top-24 options and another inside the top-36:

• Bengals: Ja’Marr Chase (WR2 ADP), Tee Higgins (WR14)
• Dolphins: Tyreek Hill (WR4), Jaylen Waddle (WR11)
• Eagles: A.J. Brown (WR6), DeVonta Smith (WR13)
• Seahawks: D.K. Metcalf (WR15), Tyler Lockett (WR34), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR32)
• Jaguars: Calvin Ridley (WR16), Christian Kirk (WR27)
• 49ers: Deebo Samuel (WR17 ADP), Brandon Aiyuk (WR28)
• Chargers: Keenan Allen (WR19 ADP), Mike Williams (WR25)

The 2013 Broncos (DT, Decker, Walker), 2018 Rams (Kupp, Woods, Cooks) and 2020 Bucs (Godwin, Evans, AB) are the only groups to produce three WR2 finishers in the same season since 2013. Good luck, Seahawks.

I don’t think our findings warrant extreme stands against any of the above groups, especially given the aforementioned recent trend of five-plus offenses enabling multiple top-24 WRs in the same season. This is especially true with only the Bengals, Dolphins, and Eagles having both of their receivers inside the position’s top-24 players.

If anything, the reality that these groups are so often paired with a top-tier QB has me feeling better than ever about trusting Geno Smith in the middle rounds and even Brock Purdy later in the draft.

You can start targeting these elite fantasy offenses on Underdog Fantasy, where you can also claim a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up for a new account! Claim your offer below and start drafting today!

Premium

Get $25 Guillotine League Credits When You Join FL+

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Nunc tinciedunt, ex sit amet cursus gravida, dui mauris vulputate felis.

Claim Offer

Multiple top-24 RBs are far more rare in the modern NFL

• Average per season: 1.9
• Median: 2

This trend has been dying out lately, with just six total squads qualifying over the past five years.

The 2017 Saints (Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram) are the only backfield duo to produce multiple top-12 RBs in PPR points per game in the same season over the past 10 years; it’s really rare to find an offense that rotates multiple backs effectively enough for each to put up truly big-time fantasy numbers.

Similar to WR, there aren’t an egregious amount of offenses actively projected to enable this sort of production in terms of 2023 ADP, but a handful do at least have one back inside the top-24 with another popping up before the 36th back is typically off the board.

• Lions: Jahmyr Gibbs (RB13 ADP), David Montgomery (RB24)
• Seahawks: Kenneth Walker (RB16), Zach Charbonnet (RB31)
• Packers: Aaron Jones (RB17), A.J. Dillon (RB33)

The commonality with previous qualifiers involved an offense that either featured two backs consistently in complementary roles, or had two talents good enough to share three-down duties in a 1.A/1.B situation.

Each of the above three instances sure look like situations that could produce multiple top-24 talents considering:

1. Gibbs and Montgomery enter distinct roles in an offense that pulled off this very feat last year.
2. Charbonnet has the prospect profile to help on passing downs and short-yardage situations—areas which Walker struggled in last season.
3. Jones and Dillon have routinely been used side-by-side in recent years, with the former holding relatively modest leads in carries (384 vs. 373) and targets (137 vs. 80) over the past two seasons.

Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones (33) dives across the goal line for a touchdown against the Los Angeles Rams on Monday, December 19, 2022, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. The Packers won the game, 24-12.Tork Mason/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin Apj Packers Vs Rams 121922 2147 Ttm

The other backfield that I could see joining the club: Washington. It’s possible that sixth-round RB Chris Rodriguez factors into Brian Robinson’s early-down work, but the absence of longtime scat back J.D. McKissic at least opens up the full-time pass-down role for Antonio Gibson. This offense is hardly guaranteed to be good, but the 19 qualified teams over the past 10 years only posted an average scoring offense rank of 13.4.

It’s true that there’s only one football to go around in these crowded offenses, but great units have a way of enabling great players to produce great production even if there are multiple parties competing for touches at the position.

This point has been far more true for WRs than RBs; even then it’s hardly been impossible for offenses to keep two parties majorly involved in the weekly gameplan. The reality that backup RBs possess far higher handcuff upside than WRs adds to the allure of drafting 1.B “FLEX with benefits” types at the position—the RB3 range is full of these talents and accordingly has been one of my favorite portions of the draft to target all offseason long.

It’d be a lot cooler if all of our fantasy players were simply force-fed elite volume every week, but your squad can certainly do worse than adding a high-end secondary option at the position—especially inside of a projected top-10 scoring offense.