Best Ball Strategy. Lessons From Over 100 Underdog Drafts.

I have completed 134 best ball drafts at the time of this writing. Putting aside my need to get outside and touch more grass, getting in this many reps has allowed me to test out all sorts of different strategies while also obtaining a solid feel for exactly what makes 2023 drafts unique.

Without further ado: 10 best ball takeaways from your boy.

As always: It’s a great day to be great.

1. America hates RBs

It wasn’t uncommon in past years to see fantasy’s top-12 RBs off the board shortly into Round 2.

These days? The current ADP RB12 Najee Harris is falling into Round 4.

The WR avalanche and influx of early-round QBs have combined to push RBs further down draft boards than any year in recent memory. This has resulted in studs like Nick Chubb (pick 14.3), Jonathan Taylor (17.6) and Tony Pollard (20.9) carrying second-round ADP.

Hell, you can get Derrick f*cking Henry (23) in Round 3 on occasion. In this economy no less!

This note doesn’t mean you have to deploy a bully-RB strategy in every draft, but my favorite teams usually managed to come away with one or two backs inside of the first three rounds. The elongated WR2-3 tier allows drafters to still get a handful of quality options at the position before the Round 8 cliff really makes life tough; don’t be afraid to spend top-36 picks on RBs who would profile as legit Round 1 options in past years.

2. Week 17 matters

The nature of Underdog Fantasy’s Best Ball Mania IV prize structure makes it so Week 17 truly matters more than any other individual week.

Fantasy Life’s Peter Overzet did a great job breaking down this concept earlier in the offseason and summarized the strategy with the following notes:

“Don’t worry. I fully understand that it might seem silly to plan for games in December while we’re still in May. However, there are concrete variables that we can account for months out, like players on the same team and their Week 17 opponents.

We don’t know which specific games are going to go off, but we do know that when a game does produce a ton of points, the players’ production in those games is correlated.

Overall, the key is to accomplish these correlation goals in tandem with the other important pillars of best ball drafting. Not at their expense.

The best way to think about Week 17 correlation is as a tiebreaker whenever you are on the clock.”

Week 17 is only a piece of the puzzle – but it’s a piece nevertheless. Keep the matchups handy and use correlation as a tiebreaker, not a rule of thumb.

Like Ricky Bobby once said: First or last. Why not try to maximize every single potential edge – even the small ones – as much as possible?

3. QBs are flying off the board faster than ever

There have usually been a few QBs who creep into the early rounds of drafts each year, but 2023 is setting a new standard for early-round drafting at the position.

2023: 6 QBs have an ADP inside the overall top-50.
2022: 4
2021: 3
2020: 2
2019: 2

Justin Herbert (pick 54.4) and Trevor Lawrence (66.6) aren’t too far off either.

There’s little debate that dual-threat aliens like Josh Allen (27.8) and Jalen Hurts (25.4) warrant early-round consideration. Overall, 13 of 14 QBs with 125-plus carries in a single season in NFL history posted top-12 fantasy numbers on a per-game basis.

High-usage rushers at QB join high-volume receiving RBs as the closest thing fantasy football has to cheat codes.

Failure to lock in one of these early-round QBs could leave your roster lacking in upside at that spot, but there are several later-round options who offer similar archetypes at a far cheaper cost. Specifically, I’ve tried to come away with theoretical dual-threat aliens like Deshaun Watson (84), Anthony Richardson (103.8), Daniel Jones (113.9) and/or Kyler Murray (152.9) in drafts when I haven’t dipped my toes into the early-round QB waters.

Nov 14, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Washington Commanders running back Antonio Gibson (24) catches the ball against the Philadelphia Eagles during the fourth quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

4. Every round you should ask yourself: “What can I get here that I can’t draft later?”

The man responsible for this lovely quote is none other than Best Ball Mania III winner Pat Kerrane, who I also recently had the pleasure of drafting with (check it out!).

While Pat was originally referencing the TE position, this idea can and should be applied to every pick in every round. At least having an idea of the best positional ranges to target helps mightily with tiebreakers throughout the process.

ADP is always changing, but at the moment I LOVE the discounts available on the following six player archetypes.

Franchise QB in talented offense with ability to provide a decent rushing floor

Geno Smith (pick 115.6) profiles as the middle class man’s version of Justin Herbert (54.4) and Trevor Lawrence (66.6). The former QB quite literally out-scored the latter talents in fantasy points per game last year, and all three should benefit from the addition of a high-end WR.

Lead RB in high-powered offense with newfound early-round competition

The gap between Kenneth Walker (52.7) and Travis Etienne (41.6) is starting to close, but the former back has still been far more impacted by his team’s decision to draft a day-two back than the latter.

Potential workhorse RB with efficiency and offensive environment concerns

Maybe Najee Harris (37.9) rides a workhorse role to fantasy success despite inefficient volume in a bad offense, but the same opportunity is on the table for guys like Cam Akers (65.5), Rachaad White (82.1) and James Conner (84.4) at a fraction of the cost.

Pass-catching RB with theoretical three-down ability

Nobody is doubting the Eagles are a far better real-life offense than the Commanders, but there’s a case to be made that Antonio Gibson (98.3) has a more fantasy-friendly role than D’Andre Swift (78.2) when considering the fantasy impact that dual-threat QBs have on their offense’s RB.

Talented No. 1 WR in run-first offense with questionable passer under center

Look, I would take D.J. Moore (47.8) over Michael Pittman (67.3) in a real-life draft, but the latter is being disrespected by this ADP difference considering he’s outscored DJM in back-to-back seasons. Pittman is also good at football and has unfortunately had to deal with many of the same QB-induced pitfalls that Moore had over the past two seasons.

Talented TE with chance to work as offense’s undisputed No. 1 pass-game option

There are only a few TEs with a realistic chance to lead their offense in targets: Mark Andrews (29.7) and Darren Waller (80.4) are two of them. The former has only scored 0.4 more PPR points per game than the latter over the past four seasons; there’s a six-TE tier after Travis Kelce (6.4) – and Waller is the cheapest of them all.

5. Don’t be afraid to target uncertain depth charts

It’s scary to draft players in muddled situations – but that’s true for every fantasy manager, and accordingly uncertain depth charts usually lead to all parties involved carrying depressed ADP.

Backfields in New Orleans, Chicago and Miami in particular don’t have a clear-cut starter at the moment (due to a looming Alvin Kamara suspension in the former case), leading to none of these squads having an RB priced inside of fantasy’s top-90 picks. Their potential starters are being priced alongside clear-cut backups on other teams without the same sort of opportunity to BOOM in value with a simple depth chart reveal between now and September.

The WR rooms with the Giants, Texans and Panthers are also muddled to the point that Nico Collins (pick 119.5) is the only player from any group regularly going inside the draft’s top-10 rounds. At cost, I most prefer throwing darts at Collins, Robert Woods (204.1), Jonathan Mingo (141.6) and Terrace Marshall (207.3) from these WR rooms – each could quickly have the sort of volume to flirt with legit WR3 status in a hurry should they ascend to the top of their respective wide-open passing game.

A similar sentiment is true for Kyler Murray (152.9), who is only being priced as low as he is because of uncertainty surrounding his return from last season’s torn ACL. Good news would inevitably boom him up the ranks – don’t be afraid to take a shot on these sort of late-round players with realistic opportunities to rise in a major way before Week 1.

Dec 25, 2022; Inglewood, California, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson (3) moves out to pass against the Los Angeles Rams during the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

6. There are some quality late-round stacks available

Identifying late-round stacking opportunities can help after getting sniped or simply failing to get the guys you needed in the earlier rounds.

Specifically, the following late-round stacks are fully composed of players going outside of the top-10 rounds.

Broncos: QB: Russell Wilson (pick 134.2). WR: Marvin Mims (158.8) and/or Tim Patrick (169.6). TE: Greg Dulcich (131.1).
Rams: QB: Matthew Stafford (152.2). WR: Van Jefferson (137.2) and/or TuTu Atwell (215.2). TE: Tyler Higbee (144.2).
Packers: QB: Jordan Love (161.5). WR: Jayden Reed (169.4). TE: Luke Musgrave (205.6)
Panthers: QB: Bryce Young (179.3). WR: Jonathan Mingo (141.6), Adam Thielen (142.5), D.J. Chark (158.2) and/or Terrace Marshall (207.3). TE: Hayden Hurst (196.8).
Texans: QB: C.J. Stroud (191.3). WR: Nico Collins (119.5, I cheated by 0.5 picks, chill), John Metchie (182), Robert Woods (204.1) and/or Tank Dell (213.2). TE: Dalton Schultz (138.3).
Patriots: QB: Mac Jones (204.4). WR: Tyquan Thornton (174.4) and/or DeVante Parker (191.3). TE: Mike Gesicki (186.3) and/or Hunter Henry (213.6).

The Panthers and Patriots in particular have been my two favorite late-round stacks thanks to the opportunity to end Rounds 16-17-18 with each team’s potential starting QB, No. 1 WR and starting TE.

7. It takes a bit for ADP to properly adjust to major news

Underdog does update ADPs every day, but auto-drafts and the public just not quite fully wrapping their mind around how far a player should drop can lead to prolonged opportunities to take advantage of new news.

One such example I‘ve been taking advantage of recently: Titans RB Tyjae Spears (pick 171.3). I broke down why in a recent edition of the (free!) Fantasy Life Newsletter:

“Selected with the 81st overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Spears carries the draft capital that is consistent with big-time year-one performers and is Dwain McFarland’s fifth-highest-rated back in his Rookie RB Super Model.

There are legit concerns about Spears’ long-term knee health, but he’s healthy for the time being. Obviously the 5’10", 201-pound RB isn’t displacing Henry at the top of the depth chart any time soon; just realize he profiles as exactly the sort of pass-down threat who could turn Henry back into more of a one-dimensional early-down grinder – and theoretically take over the backfield should disaster strike.

2022 scat-back Dontrell Hilliard remains a free agent, while the team’s primary incumbent backup Hassan Haskins was arrested on an aggravated assault charge (strangulation) on June 30.

Spears profiles as a potential “FLEX with benefits” type of RB who could:

Put together some usable fantasy weeks thanks to his potential for a quality pass-down role.
Boom down the stretch due to a Henry injury or simply because the Titans fall out of the playoff race.

Currently priced as just the RB53 (pick 171) over at Underdog Fantasy, Spears has no business going so far behind fellow youthful handcuff-plus types like Jaylen Warren (RB44, 135.2), Kendre Miller (RB45, 137.4), Tank Bigsby (RB46, 141.4) and Jerome Ford (RB50, 161.5).”

An even more recent example is Raiders RB Zamir White (206.3), who profiles as the main beneficiary of a potential Josh Jacobs holdout and can still be had in the final two rounds of drafts.

8. Be like water

Zero-RB, robust-RB, hero-RB: There’s a time and place for any fantasy football draft strategy, but predetermining what you wan to do before the draft even starts is an easy way to not take advantage of a particular room.

Listen to the late, great Bruce Lee and be like water.

I’m not saying you should throw draft strategy out of the window, but rather be willing to scoop up massive ADP value that will help differentiate your lineup when competing against hundreds of thousands of other entries.

My favorite fantasy football draft ranges highlight areas of the draft in which I LOVE multiple options at a particular position. Knowing where and when there are viable later-round options at certain positions helps me (wait for it) be like water and adjust to the draft at hand without completely throwing all roster construction strategy out the window.

9. Draft like you are right

You are competing against more than 600,000 people to win Best Ball Mania IV. Ensuring a floor doesn’t do you any good – drafting like you are right helps build round-by-round upside and ideally the perfect roster if everything goes your way.

Two examples of how to apply this:

Don’t draft three or more QBs when you land one of the top-nine options at the position. If someone like Patrick Mahomes or Justin Fields busts, your team is as good as dead anyway, use that extra roster spot elsewhere to help make up for the opportunity cost of taking an early-round QB in the first place.

Don’t draft multiple RBs from the same team if they don’t have distinct roles. Tom Moore, Indy's longtime offensive coordinator, was once asked why Peyton Manning was the only QB practicing. “Fellas, if 18 [Manning] goes down, we're fucked,” Moore said. “And we don't practice fucked.” If you draft Austin Ekeler or Nick Chubb and they get hurt: Your team is fucked! Don’t worry about building a safe, contingency-based floor in a massive best ball tournament – two-RB builds should be restricted to guys like Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson who have different enough roles to feasibly each carry weekly standalone value.

I’m far more willing to take a late-round handcuff in dynasty or re-draft formats; just realize so much has to go right in these huge tournaments that devoting two picks to the same outcome isn’t the best idea for maximizing your weekly ceiling.

10. Make sure to monitor your overall exposure

Fear not: Fantasy Life’s new (and free!) Best Ball Hub has everything you need in terms of exposure and correlation in one tidy spot. The ability to see the average ADP of your picks vs. where they are being drafted today is also incredibly valuable when projecting whether or not you want to keep going back to the well.

Example: I’ve enjoyed getting CeeDee Lamb and Amon-Ra St. Brown at the 1-2 turn, but found out after examining my lineups that I had also been drafting Jahmyr Gibbs 100% of the time to help build out the stack. I’m happy to get a good bit of that group – but having this information helped me realize that I needed to mix in a water (David Montgomery) on occasion when getting this start.

Final note: Have fun. It is fantasy football after all.

You can put these 10 tips and takeaways into practice on Underdog Fantasy, where you can also get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up with promo code LIFE! Sign up below and start drafting today!