Fantasy Football ADP Discrepancies. Late-Round WRs to Target.

NFL depth charts never stop evolving. From free agency to trades to players simply getting better or worse, there’s always something there that warrants adjusting the ole fantasy ranks.

Of course, ever-changing average draft position (ADP) isn’t always as directionally correct as it should be, especially when it comes to drafters discerning the difference between complementary options in a potentially muddled passing game.

What follows are some pairs of No. 2 and No. 3 WRs on the same NFL team for which I believe the ADP difference is too damn wide considering the potential for those WRs to see similar target shares. I’m not saying that the WR being drafted later will definitively outscore his teammate being drafted earlier, just that the current gap between their ADPs should be smaller.

Denver Broncos

Expensive: Courtland Sutton (ADP of WR48, pick No. 96.7 overall)
Cheap: Tim Patrick (ADP of WR73, pick No. 167.5 overall)

Sutton’s 72-1,112-6 receiving line back in 2019 was undoubtedly a good time, but back-to-back disappointing campaigns in the form of 58-776-2 and 64-829-2 receiving lines over the last two seasons have left a lot to be desired.

This fact has not been lost on Sean Payton, although offseason trade rumors ultimately went nowhere. The reigning WR42 in PPR points per game (PPG), Sutton’s contested catch phenom archetype looks fantastic when things are going well, but the cliff can come quickly and harshly in fantasy land (see Bryant, Dez and Golladay, Kenny)

Dec 19, 2021; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos wide receiver Tim Patrick (81) makes a catch for a touchdown ahead of Cincinnati Bengals cornerback Trae Waynes (26) in the third quarter at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

And then there’s Patrick, who has already been spotted sitting courtside with Payton and Russell Wilson. The veteran WR is expected to slide back into his starting role in three-WR sets after missing all of 2022 with a torn ACL. After all, don’t forget that Patrick was the team’s most-productive WR in 2020 (51-742-6) and 2021 (53-734-5).

Overall, Jerry Jeudy (10.9 PPR PPG) has just barely outscored Patrick (10.3 PPR PPG) over the last three seasons while Sutton (9.7 PPR PPG) has struggled to keep pace since that aforementioned 2019 campaign.

While it’s not a guarantee that Patrick will outperform Sutton in 2023, the current discrepancy between their ADPs doesn’t reflect the reality that both WRs are making eight figures per year, and both are projected to start in three-WR sets this coming season.

I’ve been gladly taking the 70-pick discount on Patrick, who isn’t being priced next to legit upside RB3 options like Sutton currently is.

Cleveland Browns

Expensive: Elijah Moore (ADP of WR44, pick No. 87.1 overall)
Cheap: Donovan Peoples-Jones (ADP of WR71, pick No. 160.4 overall)

Let’s break down the pros for each of these two Browns WRs.

Moore was the overall No. 3 WR in fantasy from Weeks 7 to 13 as a rookie in 2021 behind only Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson. Then 2022 happened, and Moore finished fourth on his team in receiving yards while ranking dead last in yards per route run (YPRR) among 80 qualifying WRs last year. Not great!

As for DPJ, he actually posted more top-36 WR finishes (4) than Amari Cooper (2) with Deshaun Watson last season, so this was far more of a 1A and 1B situation in Cleveland than most realize. The fourth-year WR has demonstrated the ability to get all kinds of separation via double-moves, has made many great contested catches, and boasts underrated open-field elusiveness (the man even returned punts last year!).

Dec 11, 2022; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Browns wide receiver Donovan Peoples-Jones (11) bobbles a pass in the end zone under pressure from Cincinnati Bengals cornerback Marvell Tell III (39) in the fourth quarter of the NFL Week 14 game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Cleveland Browns at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati on Sunday, Dec. 11, 2022. Mandatory Credit: Sam Greene-USA TODAY Sports

I get the rationale for backing Moore straight up, especially when incoming rookie WR Cedric Tillman profiles as bigger competition to DPJ. Moore has also been earning rave reviews all offseason and profiles for a very fantasy-friendly role if he can manage to secure the No. 2 WR role in Cleveland for 2023.

The argument for DPJ isn't an indictment on where Moore is being drafted but more so a note that DPJ also figures to immediately factor into three-WR sets on an offense led by a QB who was considered one of the best rising star QBs in the league not so long ago.

I love throwing late-round darts at guys like DPJ and Rashid Shaheed, as both of these WRs have made the most of their opportunities and profile as cheap fantasy options on potentially underrated passing attacks.

Dallas Cowboys

Expensive: Brandin Cooks (ADP of WR43, pick No. 83.7 overall)
Cheap: Michael Gallup (ADP of WR61, pick No. 135.6 overall)

Cooks is coming off the second least-productive season of his career and will turn 30 years old in September, which historically is when WRs start breaking bad.

Of course, Cooks has been a fun fantasy WR for most of his career thus far, having made the most out of cozy offensive situations with QBs like Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Jared Goff, and Deshaun Watson before struggling to produce with Davis Mills over the last two seasons:

2014: 13.9 PPR PPG (WR21)
2015: 15.9 PPR PPG (WR19)
2016: 15.4 PPR PPG (WR11)
2017: 13.8 PPR PPG (WR17)
2018: 15.2 PPR PPG (WR20)
2019: 8.4 PPR PPG (WR66)
2020: 15.5 PPR PPG (WR17)
2021: 14.5 PPR PPG (WR21)
2022: 11.2 PPR PPG (WR38)

Adding Cooks to this Cowboys offense certainly provides a much-needed source of field-stretching speed, but it’s tough to definitively say that Cooks will beat out Gallup behind CeeDee Lamb as Dak Prescott’s clear No. 2 pass-game option.

Although Gallup hasn’t consistently passed the 1,000-yard mark as much as Cooks has over the years, Jerry Jones and company thought enough of Gallup to hand him a five-year, $57.5 million contract prior to last season’s disappointing campaign.

So why did Gallup disappoint in 2022? Well, not being able to walk just a few months prior to last season probably didn't help matters.

“'Last year at this time, I couldn’t walk.

You go out there, you want to play like you always play,’ Gallup said. 'You know how you’re supposed to play. That didn’t happen for me last year. I was thinking too much. My knee was feeling sore and it was just different.

It’s different. I feel springy again.'"

Adding Cooks to the Cowboys offense is great news for everyone involved. Just realize that he’ll be starting in three-WR sets alongside two guys who have been catching passes from Prescott for three-plus years already.

I’m a much bigger fan of taking Gallup four-plus rounds after Cooks, who is going next to underpriced potential workhorses like Rachaad White and James Conner as well as younger breakout candidates like Quentin Johnston, Elijah Moore, and Zay Flowers.

It wasn’t that long ago that Gallup was making some seriously impressive plays as one of Prescott’s go-to targets.

Don’t be afraid to buy the cheapest WR who projects for a full-time role on a Cowboys offense that has ranked second, first, and first in PPG with a healthy Prescott under center over the past three seasons.

You can take a few shots on these underrated No. 3 WRs on Underdog Fantasy, where you can also get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up with promo code LIFE! Sign up below and start drafting today!

Fantasy Football ADP Discrepancies. Late-Round WRs to Target.

Denver Broncos

Cleveland Browns

Dallas Cowboys

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