The Cognizant Classic is the first stop on the PGA Tour’s “Florida Swing” and is one of the most underrated tournament/venue combos on the schedule. Formerly known as the Honda Classic, this event remains situated at the devilish PGA National, which specializes in hitting players with unpredictable winds around an open golf course where water is legitimately in play on 15 of the 18 holes.

As you can guess, chaos often reigns in a setting like this, and it won't be an uncommon sight to see players taking double bogies or worse this week. Tough bunkering, several longer par 4s (with tee shots that need to be shaped around water), and a finishing stretch that will test even the tightest of multi-shot leads always lead to a final day where we get peak PGA drama.

The field this year remains thinner than many PGA stops given that this event doesn’t have elevated status and sits directly in front of two elevated events (API and THE PLAYERS). Longshot winners have been something of a theme at this event regardless, but the inclusion of Rory McIlroy does give this tournament some extra star power this year compared to last.

This event always seems to outperform its status, but with the world's No. 2 in tow, it'll be interesting to see if a big favorite can finally break through or whether yet another longshot winner will prevail.

Cognizant Classic Betting Odds

Unlike last week, we do have a couple of top-10 players in the field with both McIlroy and Matthew Fitzpatrick in attendance. McIlroy’s inclusion is extremely interesting and likely beneficial for betting purposes, as the Northern Irishman did little to nothing on the West Coast swing but is still being given huge amounts of respect as the favorite.

It helps that he was a past champ, having won this event back in 2012. And given that McIlroy has to be given top favorite status (he’ll still be the most bet player by far this week), his presence also helps push several players' odds down who would have been much shorter in price had Rory skipped this week.

Here are the top 10 golfers in betting odds per DraftKings for the 2024 Cognizant Classic:

All-in-all, this should set up as a great week to fade the favorite on this volatile course where longshots have a great history of coming through (see next section below for odds from past winners).

Cognizant Classic Course Preview

PGA National - West Palm Beach, FL

• Par 71
• 7,147 yards
• Greens: Bermuda
• Fairways: Bermuda
• Rough: Bermuda
• Designer: Jack Nicklaus

Past winners

• 2023: Chris Kirk +3300
• 2022: Sepp Straka +11000
• 2021: Matt Jones +7000
• 2020: Sungjae Im +4000
• 2019: Keith Mitchell +25000

This event has seen a lot of 100-1 or better longshot winners (Michael Thompson in 2013, Russell Henley in 2014, Keith Mitchell in 2019, and Sepp Straka in 2023) prevail over the past decade. Additionally, players like Eric Cole in 2023 (+15000 ob) and Luke List (+10000 ob in 2018) have also nearly paid off at huge prices.

As you can guess, the venue does play a role. Water is laden around 15 holes and is in play big-time down the stretch with players having to navigate water on their tee shots and/or second approach shots on Holes 15 to 18. The Bear Trap (Holes 15 to 17) is commonly recognized as one of the hardest finishing stretches in golf, as each of those holes is capable of delivering a double bogey or worse to knock a player out of contention in the blink of an eye.

With tight fairways, unpredictable wind, firmer Bermuda greens, and hard-to-hit targets, the green in regulation percentages for this event tend to be some of the lowest we’ll see all season. Hence, past winners tend to spike in both strokes gained approach stats and around-the-green play.

While we have seen a lot of longshot winners prevail at PGA National, most of them have given off some clues prior to winning. Five of the last six winners had already achieved a top-10 in the same calendar year prior to winning, and most were showing good progression with their ball-striking and scoring clubs from greenside. Matt Jones is a great example from 2021.

Data via Fantasy National

Jones was hitting the ball well to begin 2021 and even posted a top-10 at the tough Riviera. He then went on a nice run with his putter and around-the-green play, which culminated with a big week at PGA National.

Stat notes

• Course history: Florida form and past course history at PGA National (nine of the last 13 winners had achieved a 13th or better at PGA National prior to winning this event). 
• Strokes gained approach: Four of the last five winners at PGA National have gained over +5.0 strokes on their approaches for the week of their win.
• Strokes gained around the green: The last seven winners gained strokes around the green, and three of the last five winners — Mitchell, Im, and Jones — gained +3.5 strokes ATG or more.
• Putting: Positive recent form on Bermuda greens or good splits.

Cognizant Classic Best Bets

Below are my favorite betting targets for the week. While they are all outright plays for me, I like playing these names in the placing department as well. As such, I’ve included placing options for each name if you'd like to construct a betting card and want exposure to both options (or only want to bet some players for a place).

Additionally, if you have the ability to make each-way bets (win and place bets in one), then I’ve included that option for some players as well where the odds are relevant. 

For more information on how each-way bets work you can click here.

Adam Svensson

• Outright (+5500, BetMGM)
• Top-5 (+900, BetMGM)

Svensson is a player who won multiple times on the Korn Ferry Tour and already has a win on the PGA (2022 RSM Classic). He’s got the perfect style of game (great on mid-approaches and solid short game) for these more technical-style tracks and posted a T9 at PGA National back in 2021, an event during which he was tracking with the leaders for much of the way.

Feb 18, 2024; Pacific Palisades, California, USA; Adam Svensson chips on the third hole during the final round of The Genesis Invitational golf tournament at Riveria Country Club. Mandatory Credit: Jason Parkhurst-USA TODAY Sports

His game also showed some bite the last time out at Riviera, where he gained over 2.0 strokes on approach (APP) and around the green (ATG). We’ve seen Svensson mix it up with the big boys on tracks like this before (he led the Florida-based PLAYERS last year after 36-holes), and in this weaker field, he’ll likely feel much more confident. At 50-1 or better, Svensson isn't someone I’d shy away from backing.

You can tail Svensson on BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. Simply sign up below to start betting TODAY!

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Christiaan Bezuidenhout

• Outright (+6000, FanDuel)
• Top-5 (+1000, FanDuel)
• Each-way ¼ top-5 (+5500, Bet365)

Bezuidenhout looks like a player who's ready to make a real leap this year. The South African has two wins against solid fields over on the DP World Tour and has been getting himself in contention more often to begin 2024.

He’s shown a marked uptick in approaches this season, which has allowed him to place top-30 at longer venues like TPC Scottsdale and Riviera. Bezuidenhout has also showcased his upside on a more technical track in the fall when he placed T6 at the Jackson Country Club, another venue with pure Bermuda greens similar to this week.

Bezuidenhout’s ATG game is the only thing that has yet to come to life, but a move to Florida may help. He gained 2.2 strokes ATG here in 2022 (T25 finish) and has been markedly positive ATG over his career at Bay Hill, which is a similarly tough Florida venue.

You can bet on Bezuidenhout at FanDuel, where you can get up to $150 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of just $5 or more!

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Maverick McNealy

• Outright (+8000, Bet365)
• Top-10 (+700, Bet365)
• Each-way 1/5 top-8 (+8000, Bet365)

McNealy is another player who's been progressing nicely this season. The American had a solid week at the Mexico Open, landing a top-20 finish off the back of a final round 66 where he gained over two strokes on approach.

The former Stanford star has been working his way back from injury over the last six months but has already posted a T6 on the season (TPC Scottsdale) and has gained over 5.0 strokes ATG and Putting (combined) in his last two starts.

February 1, 2024; Pebble Beach, California, USA; Maverick McNealy putts on the 15th hole during the first round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am golf tournament at Pebble Beach Golf Links. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

McNealy also rates out as the top Bermuda putter in this field over the last 50 rounds (+42.94 strokes via Fantasy National).

Overall, McNealy has a solid history at these shorter par 71/70 tracks and finished T11 at this venue on debut back in 2020. He gained 5.1 strokes on approach for that week, his best career mark to date in that stat. At these bigger odds, it’s hard to pass up the chance to back him this week either as an outright or at big top-10 odds.

Cognizant Classic Longshot Bets

Ben Griffin

• Outright (+10000, Bet365)
• Top-10 (+800, Bet365)
• Each-way 1/5 top-8 (+8000, Bet365)

These definitely look like big-enough odds to take a flier on Ben Griffin, a player who's come exceedingly close to winning on the PGA Tour multiple times over the last year-and-a-half.

The American has a solid short game (25th in ATG stats over the last 24 rounds) and has already put up a top-10 at the American Express this season, another event with a stadium-style course that has some similarity to this week’s stadium design.

While I’d likely feel better about betting Griffin in the placing market (top-10 and top-20), the fact that he’s coming off a couple of very positive starts with his scoring clubs (putting and ATG) makes him a worthwhile add for anyone looking for a 100-1 target. He was 21st on debut at this venue last season and has shown good penchant for Bermuda greens with top-five finishes at the Sanderson Farms, Wyndham Classic, and Bermuda Championship over the last couple of seasons.

Harry Hall

• Outright (+35000, Bet365)
• Top-5 (+5500, Bet365)
• Top-10 (+2000, Bet365)
• Top-20 (+850, Bet365)
• Top-40 (+275, Bet365)
• Each-way 1/5 top-8 (+25000, Bet365)

If you’re looking for a player with longer odds to back this week, I really like the chances for Harry Hall to make a little noise. The Englishman has his ups and downs, but his upside on these kinds of courses remains as good as anyone at these odds.

Just last season, Hall finished third at the Charles Schwab Challenge (held at the more technical Colonial CC), an event he had a shot at winning on the final hole before a bad bounce saw his tee shot roll into a penalty area. He also put up a T3 a couple of seasons ago at the more technical Victoria National Golf Club on the Korn Ferry Tour, a good comparable in many ways for this week’s course.

May 28, 2023; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; Harry Hall plays a shot on the second hole during the final round of the Charles Schwab Challenge golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports

While Hall has started the season slowly, the last few weeks have been promising. He made the cut in Phoenix and then improved to a T34 finish in Mexico, where he gained 4.4 strokes on APP and 3.3 strokes ATG. Hall’s putter held him back last week, but that won’t be the case in most starts. He’s 10th in strokes gained putting on Bermuda over the last 50 rounds and is legitimately one of the games best spike putters (he gained over 7.0 strokes putting three separate times in 2023).

Hall finished just T75 at this venue last year, but he was 2-under going into the weekend. At the very least, he’s someone to think about adding for smaller units in the top-10 and top-20 markets, as Hall's short game has been in form, and his putter is capable of landing him a big weekend if he can get through the cutline again.

Cognizant Classic Matchup Bets

Erik van Rooyen over Throbjorn Olesen (-110, DraftKings)

Van Rooyen has played this venue three times over the last four years and has a decent experience advantage in that regard over the Dane this week, who's played this event just once back in 2014. While the results haven’t materialized for van Rooyen at PGA National just yet, experience matters, and he’s playing more consistently than he was at this point last season. I personally have the South African marked as a small favorite, so getting him at -110 offers some decent value.

You can tail the van Rooyen matchup bet at DraftKings, where you can get up to $1,000 in No Sweat bets when you sign up below!

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Adam Svensson over Luke List (-104, FanDuel)

Both of these players are showing form, so I’ll simply side with the player who has bigger odds and is slightly less likely to blow up on the greens in Svensson. List nearly won this event in 2018, but since then, he’s missed the cut at PGA National three times and has had a ton of issues putting on these greens (he lost -5.5 strokes putting here in 2021). Svensson is 3/3 in made cuts at PGA National and may win this just by getting to Saturday if List’s putting were to regress.