The PGA Championship is the year’s second major. It was moved to May back in 2019 to give the PGA TOUR schedule a little more balance and since that time has played much tougher in terms of scoring. While the former mid-August date often meant more humidity and softer greens the current mid-May date has provided longer courses, thicker rough, and less receptive greens.

Only one winner since 2019 has managed to get in at better than 10-under par (Collin Morikawa -13; 2020) and two of the last three PGA Championships have been won at 6-under or worse. Last year’s winning score of -9 (Brooks Koepka) belied that most of the field struggled with Oak Hill’s length (7,400, Par 70) and the insane rough it featured. Only 11 players managed to get in under par last season giving the event more of a US Open feel. 

This year’s iteration will take us back to an old favorite on the course rota in Valhalla Golf Club.

Valhalla is a Jack Nicklaus design that hosted this event in 1996, 2000, and 2014. It also hosted the Ryder Cup in 2008, a year that saw the USA post one of their most dominant wins. Lower scoring has been a feature at the last two majors Valhalla has hosted as Tiger Woods managed to get to in -18 in his playoff win from 2000 (when the course played as a Par 72 and measured only 7,150 yards) and Rory McIlroy hit 16-under in his 2014 win.

That said, both of those events were played in August, and the venue that the players will be facing this season will be markedly different in many ways. I’ll dive into those details below and then go over some important betting trends for the week while ending with an early-week betting pick. 

Let’s get our PGA Championship week started!

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PGA Championship 2024 Course Preview

Valhalla Golf Club (Louisville, Kentucky) 

• Par: 71, 7,609 yards
• Greens: Bentgrass
• Fairways: Zoysiagrass
• Rough: Kentucky bluegrass and fescue
• Design: Jack Nicklaus (1986); Resurfaced tees and fairways from bentgrass to zoysiagrass in 2021.
• Course Record: Jose Maria Olazabal (63; 2000 PGA Championship) 
• Most wins: 5 – Walter Hagen (match play) and Jack Nicklaus (stroke play)
• Defending Champion: Brooks Koepka (2023; Oak Hill)

Valhalla played as a Par 72, around 7,200 yards (max) back in 2000 when Tiger Woods famously outdueled Bob May for the win.

In 2004, the venue played as a Par 71 and had also been lengthened by that time to around 7,400 yards. Rory McIlroy was able to take advantage of a course that had been softened by thunderstorms that season to get in at 16-under par and claim his second PGA Championship. 

This year’s Valhalla will look and play markedly different to both of those events.

The course has again been set to play as a Par 71 but has been pushed to 7,609 yards, which will make it the third-longest course on the PGA this season in total yardage, but the longest among Par 71s.

Tee boxes on several holes (No. 1, 12, 14, and 18) have been installed to make the course play more challenging and the fairways have been replaced and will now feature Zoysiagrass, a type of strain that typically grows slower in the spring which means we could see a lot of run on tee shots.

The course may not play ostensibly long as a result (despite being 7,600 yards) but with the rough being grown to a reported 4 inches (1.5 to 2.0 inches longer than we saw last week at Quail Hollow), the firm fairways will present their own challenge and likely work to over penalize even slightly off-center tee shots.

May 13, 2024; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Tiger Woods tees off on hole 13 during a practice round for the PGA Championship golf tournament at Valhalla Golf Club. Mandatory Credit: Clare Grant-USA TODAY Sports

As such, Valhalla may not cater as much to the bomb and gouge crowd as some of the more recent PGA venues. It’s still a long venue so players who can cut the distance needed on their second shot with a great drive (and the ability to elevate the ball from the rough) will still have a big advantage. However, a shorter hitter may still have the ability to challenge this week if he can consistently find the pockets of fairway that open up on many of the longer holes off the tee and be great with his longer irons.

In terms of setup, the venue plays as a traditional Par 71, with three par 5s and four par 3s. Like many Jack Nicklaus designs it's a mixture of tougher par 4s with some signature holes that include a short par 4 with an island green (13th) and a big risk-reward finishing hole with a huge three-tier green. Players on several of the longer dog-leg Par 4s will have to decide whether to opt for a shorter driving club and go for the bigger piece of the fairway or take out the driver and try and cut corners and give themselves a shorter approach.

It’s not a one-for-one comparable with Nicklaus’ other main PGA design, Muirfield Village, but it does have some similarities in regards to the smaller greens and some of the options it gives players off the tee.

Glen Abbey (former host of the Canadian Open) is another venue to consider in terms of correlation as it presents players with similar-styled holes and ends with a tougher Par 5 that can allow eagle chances.

In terms of stats, I don’t expect this year’s PGA to veer much off what we’ve seen from past winners. Strong weeks off the tee have been a hallmark at this major with Koepka gaining 4.7 strokes Off the Tee (OTT) last season, 6.7 strokes OTT in 2019, and 5.9 strokes OTT in 2018.

Each of the other three individual winners from 2018 onwards (Mickelson, Thomas, and Morikawa) wasn’t as dominant as Koeka in that area but still gained over 2.0 strokes OTT – and made up the difference around the green or with the putter. 

Top 10 in Strokes Gained OTT, APP, and ATG stats over the last 50 rounds (via fantasynational.com)

Considering it’s a Jack Nicklaus course, we also have to look at approach stats particularly proximity and strokes gained from 175 yards and out.

The venue is long, and will tempt players into laying up which will only result in longer approaches and iron shots.

Betting Facts and Stats for the 2024 PGA Championship

Below are the previous odds (week of) of the past 10 PGA Championship winners. A couple of notes about these odds below:

• Six of the last 10 winners have closed at +2000 or shorter 
• There have been two winners who closed with odds above +10000
• Only one player with odds shorter than +1000 has won the PGA Championship over the last decade (McIlroy 2014)

Below are the previous 10 winners of the PGA Championship and their pre-event odds from the beginning of the week of the event. (Odds courtesy of SportsOddsHistory.)

2024 PGA Championship Betting Trends

Trends aren’t a great thing to follow blindly in handicapping, but they can be useful for tie-breaking scenarios and tend to carry more weight in golf betting at events where course history plays a bigger role.

Since there is relatively little course history to play off this week we’ll be focusing more on event, statistical, and major championship trends. 

Below are some of the more relevant PGA Championship betting trends for 2024.

Major experience of past PGA Championship winner

• Of the past 10 winners of the PGA Championship only one had failed to record a top 10 at a previous major before his win (Morikawa 2020). 

Recent form of recent PGA Championship winners (results):

• Eight of the past 11 winners of the PGA Championship finished T15 or better in their last start before winning this event (Justin Thomas finished T28 in his last start in 2017 and Collin Morikawa finished T20 in his last start in 2020).
• Six of the past eight winners of the PGA Championship played in a PGA TOUR event the week before their win (except: Phil Mickelson in 2021 and Brooks Koepka 2023).
• Since 2019 the PGA has been played in May four times and the winner of the PGA has finished no worse than T21 at Augusta in the year’s first major. Three of the four winners finished T8 or better.

Recent statistical form of the last three PGA winners:

• Outside of Phil Mickelson (2021) each of the last 10 winners of the PGA Championship gained strokes OTT and on APP in their final start before winning the PGA Championship. 
• Thomas (2017 and 2022), Morikawa (2020), and Koepka (2018 and 2019) all gained over 4.0 strokes on approach in at least two of their final six starts leading up to their PGA Championship wins. 

First-time major winners at the PGA Championship 

• Seven of the last 14 winners of the PGA Championship have been first-time major winners

Early Bet for 2024 PGA Championship

Joaquin Niemann Outright (+4000; FanDuel)

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• Top 10 (+360; DraftKings)
• Top 20 (+165; DraftKings)

Niemann’s T22 effort at Augusta wasn’t his best but on a week where he tied Rory McIlroy and beat Jon Rahm and Brooks Koepka, I’m not sure we can fault him too much for his finish there.

I’m more impressed by the fact the Chilean was able to pick up almost right where he left off on LIV, after Augusta, posting T3 and T7 finishes in Australia and Singapore, and effectively shooting 26-under over six competitive rounds.

Niemann is also long and straight off the tee which is sure to help on these fiery zoysiagrass fairways and has a solid record at other Jack Nicklaus designs he built up during his time on the PGA TOUR. He finished T6 at Muirfield Village back in 2018 and bettered that effort with a T3 there in 2022. His T3 in the 2020 FedEx playoffs at the very tough Olympia Fields also stands out just given how long that venue played and the fact it featured pure bentgrass greens similar to what the players will see this week.

Niemann’s yet to post a top 10 in a major championship, which is a decent argument against including him on outright cards, but he’s also bested elite fields in the past including recently at the Genesis in 2022 when he won on another long Par 71 by multiple strokes.

Ultimately, I think 40-1 is extremely fair for him this week given his form, and also think laddering him through multiple placings makes plenty of sense this week from a strategy perspective.

Even without his best, he was nearly able to nab a full top 20 at Augusta, and with a little less pressure and a great venue for him to showcase his elite ball striking, it’s hard to see him coming up short in those markets once again.