2024 RBC Heritage Best Bets

Now that the first major of the year has passed we are firmly entering the peak of the PGA season. We have three more majors over the next four months on the schedule and plenty of solid events for betting in between. This week the PGA has two tournaments on the schedule, an alternate event in Punta Cana and the RBC Heritage, which is now a signature event (and where most of the top players will be teeing it up).

The Heritage used to be a full-field event (that many top players would skip after a tough week at Augusta) and has been played at Harbour Town Golf Links ever since its introduction onto the PGA back in 1969.

However, this season the tournament features a reduced field of just 69 players as it is now a Signature Event. With far more money and FedEx Cup points up for grabs we have an elite field in play with the only notable withdrawal for now being Viktor Hovland.

Some other quick notes about the event:

It’s a 69-man field with no cut
Masters winner Scottie Scheffler leads the field in betting odds (see below) but is also on withdrawal watch as his wife is expected to go into labour soon
The RBC is now a Signature Event with a 20M prize purse and 3.6M going to the winner
This event has been won by a top 20 player in each of the past two seasons (Jordan Spieth - 2022, Matthew Fitzpatrick - 2023)

Betting Odds for the 2024 RBC Heritage

As of now, Scheffler is the leader in betting odds at +400. I say for now as there is still the potential we see the 2x Masters Champion withdraw at some point given that his wife is expected to go into labor somewhat soon – and Scheffler has stated he would withdraw at a moment’s notice if that were to happen. Interestingly enough, Sam Burns is also in a similar situation this week.

Scheffler’s predicament (and the fact he may be a tad burned out from the Masters festivities) does make the other top players more intriguing this week. Last week’s runner-up Ludvig Aberg is third in odds (down to +1200 at DraftKings) while last season’s RBC champion, Matthew Fitzpatrick (who was T22 last week), comes in tied with Max Homa (T3 last week) with the seventh lowest betting odds at +2200.

2024 RBC Heritage Top 10 names in betting odds (DraftKings):

Name	Odds (DraftKings)	Last start
Scottie Scheffler	+400	Win - Masters
Xander Schauffele	+1000	T8 - Masters
Ludvig Aberg	+1200	2nd - Masters
Rory McIlroy	+1200	T22 - Masters
Patrick Cantlay	+1400	T22 - Masters
Tommy Fleetwood	+1800	T3 - Masters
Collin Morikawa	+1800	T3 - Masters
Max Homa	+2200	T3 - Masters
Matthew Fitzpatrick	+2200	T22 - Masters
Alex Noren	+3000	T11 – Houston
Byeong Hun An	+3000	MC - PLAYERS

RBC Heritage Course Preview

Harbour Town Golf Links — Hilton Head Island, South Carolina

Par 71, 7,213 yards; Greens: Bermuda (Poa overseed)

Designer: Pete Dye

Past winners (and odds):

2023: Matthew Fitzpatrick +3000
2022: Jordan Spieth +2000
2021: Stewart Cink +10000
2020: Webb Simpson +3000
2019: CT Pan +12500

Harbour Town is essentially the complete opposite of what we saw last week at Augusta. Whereas Augusta tends to be open and inviting off the tee, Harbour Town is about as claustrophobic a layout as you can find and one that typically forces the pros to club down off the tee.

Whereas last week, players were firing driver off most of the par 4s and par 5s, this week they’ll be more focused on strategic shots from the tee box, a fact that makes this layout far more appealing for the less powerful players.

The tree-lined fairways aren't the only place where Harbour Town emphasises accuracy either. The greens here are some of the smallest on the PGA and often quirky in shape and size, which means that players have to constantly be thinking one shot ahead of themselves or risk getting cut off completely from the flagstick. As such, the venue tends to be a dream for both precision ball-strikers and those players who like the added strategy element which emphasizes course management and short games.

Harbour Town does contain three par 5s and two of them typically rank as the two easiest holes on the course. The front nine also contains a semi-drivable par 4, with a heart-shaped green, that has come to represent an easy birdie opportunity over the seasons.

Whereas the font-nine has some scoreable holes, the back-nine has much more volatility attached to it. It has two of the toughest holes on the course in 14 (Par 3 over water) and 18 (long Par 4 along the sea) and overall, less room for error. Short games and putting can carry players a long way on this course but, eventually, your approach game will have to step up if you want to get in with a round well under par – and that’s typically why we always see winners and high finishers at this venue end the week as one of the leaders in strokes gained approach stats.

Stat notes:

Strokes Gained Approach: the last four winners have all gained over 4.8 strokes on approach for the week of their win

Strokes Gained Around the Greens: The last two winners have each gained over 3.0 strokes ATG for the week

Strokes Gained Off the Tee: Most of the recent winners have been positive in strokes gained OTT to varying degrees, with most winners being above average in accuracy and fairways gained

Below are my favorite betting targets for the week. While many are pure outright plays for me I do like playing many of these names in the placing department as well and I’ve included placing options for some names if you are constructing a betting card and want exposure to both options (or only want to bet some players for a place).

Additionally, if you can make each-way bets (win and place bets in one) then I’ve included that option for some players as well where the odds are relevant.

For more information on how each-way bets work, you can click here.

Patrick Cantlay Outright (+1600; BetMGM)

In typical Patrick Cantlay fashion, the American has almost always saved some of his best work for AFTER major championships. He’s posted two of his seven career wins at the Memorial – in starts that were made directly after the PGA Championship in 2019 and 2021 – and always seems to find a way to compete at this week’s post-Masters test, an event where he’s finished T3 or better four times in six starts since 2017.

While his price has slipped down from the +2000 range since opening I still prefer him to the other options at the top of the board. Scheffler has a lot working against him this week (Masters hangover, wife potentially going into labor) while the other players with shorter numbers than him (Schauffele, Aberg, McIlroy) don’t have the experience at Harbour Town he does, a course that has a lot of unique holes and characteristics that take getting used to. We’ve also seen Cantlay go off at far shorter odds than this at Harbour Town as he closed at +1200 last season while coming off a very similar Masters week (T14 in 2023, T22 in 2024).

All-in-all, I think we’ll see the top players who played solidly for 72 holes around Augusta compete well at Harbour Town again this season. Cantlay’s performance last week should be helpful and with his betting number being better than it was last season he makes sense as an outright play even at these now-reduced prices.

Tommy Fleetwood (+2200; bet365)

Keeping with the theme of targeting players who did well last week, I don't have any qualms with targeting Englishman Tommy Fleetwood again for a breakthrough win. Fleetwood finished T3 last week but was never really in the hunt for the title and that may mean he’s somewhat fresher than some of the other top players who fell off on Sunday after starting within a couple of shots of the lead.

Fleetwood’s T3 was his best-ever finish at Augusta and his ability to handle that longer course can only breed confidence for this week around a much more suitable test where his lack of distance off the tee won't put him at such a disadvantage. Fleetwood’s year on the PGA may have started slow but he showcased some high-end ball-striking at Valero (+8.1 APP +OTT for the week) and followed that up with an even better effort at Augusta. While he doesn't have the high-end finishes at Harbour Town Cantlay does he’s finished T15 and T10 at this event the past two seasons and has notably putted well on Harbour Town’s greens, gaining an average of 5.0 strokes putting at this event the last two seasons.

Another effort like that on the greens will almost certainly lead to good things this week and his current price isn’t all that bad considering both his recent form and the fact we have a much smaller field in play (and a potentially fatigued Scheffler).

Placement Bets and Matchups for 2024 RBC Heritage

Top 20 Tom Kim (+150; DraftKings)

I like the idea of backing young talent Tom Kim this week as well, who put together one of the best rounds of the Masters on Sunday – posting a 66 in what were still semi-brutal conditions. Kim has struggled in 2024 but remains an elite talent who has shown he can elevate his game quickly when everything comes together. He posted a second career win this fall in Vegas after taking multiple weeks off and his T8 at the US Open from last season came after two missed cuts.

Kim’s outright price at +5000 is still certainly big enough to play although with the market driving it down from open I like looking to him in placing markets more now as well. He’s +150 for a top 20 on DraftKings, which is quite a bit bigger than he is on many other big sportsbooks, where he’s dropped to the +125 range. With a more suitable layout for the shorter hitter in play at Harbour Town, taking advantage of this market discrepancy makes sense and makes Kim a great top-20 target in this 69-man field.

Tom Kim (+100; DraftKings) over Akshay Bhatia

If you want one more way to play Kim this week then I also wouldn’t hesitate to target him in the matchup department. DraftKings has him matched up with another rising young talent in Akshay Bhatia, who has admittedly eaten Kim’s lunch of late, but who may be ready for a small bit of regression of his own this week.

Bhatia did manage to make the weekend at Augusta but heads to a layout in Harbour Town where he’s missed the cut in his only career start. Harbour Town will likely never be a great spot for Bhatia as it simply doesn’t allow him to take advantage of his best strength which is shaping the ball off the tee. You can find Kim in other matchup bets, at other books this week, but this matchup with Bhatia looks like the most advantageous one on the market when you factor in layout and price.

RBC Heritage Longshot Bets

Cameron Davis Outright (+6000; FanDuel)

Top 10 (+450; FanDuel)

Cameron Davis is another player coming off a solid start, as he posted a career-best T12 at Augusta. The Aussie’s late double bogey on 17 pushed him out of the top 10 and likely allowed us to get a better price on him for this week’s event, which I’m happy to take given his considerable talent. Last week was also his second solid effort in a row after he gained strokes across the board in a T21 finish in Houston.

The winner of the 2019 Rocket Mortgage has played well around Harbour Town posting finishes of T7 and T3 at this venue the last two seasons. While he’s got the distance to compete at places like Augusta, Davis has shown he’s just as comfortable clubbing down off the tee and has performed well at other Pete Dye venues like TPC Stadium (T3 in 2021) and TPC Sawgrass (T6 in 2023). With a reduced field and less pressure, he’s got the exact kind of upside we want to be adding at these levels.

Sepp Straka Each Way, 1/4 top 5 (+6600; bet365)

Like Davis, Sepp Straka managed his way to a career-best finish last week at Augusta and seems to be building some momentum. The two-time winner on the PGA Tour has proven that when his irons are on he can compete with the very best and this more accuracy-driven course compares well with the venues of his last first two wins in PGA National and TPC Deer Run.

Straka was also T16 at another Dye venue just three starts ago (TPC Sawgrass) and his T3 finish at this event from back in 2022 exemplifies the kind of upside he has on a venue like Harbour Town. He’s another player you can think about in the top 10 markets (along with Davis) but I also like the idea of backing him in an each-way bet where he can be had at +6600 on bet365 with a top-five placing term.

2024 RBC Heritage Best Bets - Course Preview, Top Picks, and more

Betting Odds for the 2024 RBC Heritage

RBC Heritage Course Preview

Harbour Town Golf Links — Hilton Head Island, South Carolina

Par 71, 7,213 yards; Greens: Bermuda (Poa overseed)