Best Bets for the 2024 U.S. Open at Pinehurst

The U.S. Open is typically described as the toughest test in golf, and as a result, it’s also often the most entertaining. There's something about watching professional golfers struggle to make par on every single hole that makes them more relatable. Such a challenge has always made the U.S. Open more of the everyman’s major where the often-pampered pro golfers have to get down and dirty like the rest of us if they want to go home a winner.

There's also the no preferential treatment qualifying procedure, which allows anyone a shot at getting into this tournament. That can often produce some surprising qualifiers and equally surprising absentees. This season alone, we have names like Joaquin Niemann, Keith Mitchell, and last week’s LIV Golf winner, Carlos Ortiz, missing the field after having failed to make their way through qualifying.

Outside of those non-qualifiers, we do have some news to keep an eye on. Jon Rahm withdrew mid-way through last week’s LIV Golf event due to a foot injury, and his odds for the U.S. Open have since fallen to +2500 on DraftKings. Rahm is still expected to play, but given the nature of his injury, walking around a tough course for four days may prove difficult. And he's certainly had a less-than-ideal prep for this event.

The rest of the field looks mostly intact. We got some late alternates in Sergio Garcia and Adam Scott (both of whom failed to win their qualifying heats) able to gain entry and extend their long-running major championship start streaks. Other than that, most of the top players are arriving in good health and form and ready to take on one of the most unique tests in major championship golf.

I went over the course and some betting trends on Monday in our early week U.S. Open course and betting preview. If you haven’t familiarized yourself with Pinehurst No. 2 yet, I recommend that you do so first, as this venue is not likely to play anything like a typical U.S. Open course.

Now let's hone in on some specific bets. Since we have more markets to choose from this week, I’m not limiting myself to just outright or placement bets. But before we get to the good stuff, here are a few notes about the 2024 U.S. Open to keep in mind.

It’s a 156-man field with the cut line taking place after Friday. The top 60 players and ties will make the weekend, which makes the cut harder to make than most traditional PGA TOUR stops.
There are plenty of qualifiers in this field, which means that there are many players outside of the top 200 in the OWGR with whom you may not be familiar.
Scottie Scheffler currently leads the field in betting odds at +280 on DraftKings, and this number is even shorter than what he was listed at last week at the Memorial (+360).
There are three players, Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Collin Morikawa, who have shorter than +1800 odds. Morikawa and Scheffler finished 1-2 last week.
The weather is tracking to be perfect this week, although the higher temperatures and lack of moisture could lead to the course becoming extremely dried out.

2024 U.S. Open Betting Odds

Scheffler’s win last week is either a blessing or a curse. If you were looking to bet Scheffler, his win was a curse, as his odds for one of the most volatile tournaments of the year are now down to +280 – shorter than they were last week in a 70-man field.

However, if you're looking to bet against Scheffler, his win last week is the best thing that could have happened, as he’s pushed several names up in price that could have been much shorter had he underperformed. Here are the top 10 names in betting odds for the 2024 U.S. Open per DraftKings:

Name	Odds (DraftKings)	Last start
Scottie Scheffler	+280	Win - Memorial
Xander Schauffele	+1000	T8 - Memorial
Rory McIlroy	+110	T15 - Memorial
Collin Morikawa	+1400	2nd - Memorial
Viktor Hovland	+1800	T15 - Memorial
Ludvig Aberg	+2200	T20 - Memorial
Jon Rahm	+2500	WD - LIV Houston
Tommy Fleetwood	+3500	T20 - Memorial
Justin Thomas	+4000	T33 - Memorial
Hideki Matsuyama	+4000	T8 - Memorial

Rahm has taken the biggest dive due to the foot injury, which has him out of favor with oddsmakers and bettors alike. We’re also seeing names like Justin Thomas and Tommy Fleetwood, neither of whom played that poorly last week, with bigger odds than they had at Muirfield one week ago.

Best Bets for the 2024 U.S. Open

Below are my favorite betting targets for the week. While they are all outright plays for me, I like playing these names in the placing department as well. As such, I’ve included placing options for each name if you'd like to construct a betting card and want exposure to both options (or only want to bet some players for a place).

Additionally, if you have the ability to make each-way bets (win and place bets in one), then I’ve included that option for some players as well where the odds are relevant.

For more information on how each-way bets work you can click here.

Victor Hovland

Outright (+2000, FanDuel)
Top-5 (+500, FanDuel)

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that some of Viktor Hovland’s best work has come on courses that require a little more creativity on approaches and around the green. He’s often struggled with scrambling on courses with the typical heavy rough collars we see at most U.S. Opens. However, Hovland has managed to find better success at many links-styled and resort venues that feature tighter run-off areas and little to no rough. His early career wins all came at unique, off-mainland setups at Mayakoba and Puerto Rico.

That should make Pinehurst No. 2, a setup with no rough and massive bowl-shaped greens, similar to what we often see overseas and one that Hovland should enjoy. From a player profile perspective, he also lines up nicely with 2014 Pinehurst winner Martin Kaymer. Kaymer was likewise deficient around the greens, even in his prime, but has always been a wicked links player whose iron play has often drifted into the sublime.

May 28, 2022; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; Victor Hovland plays his shot from the sixth tee during the third round of the Charles Schwab Challenge golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports

Hovland also comes into this week as a bit of a man on a mission. He had a terrible start to the season and a fantastic blowup at the Masters, which caused him to take a multi-week break from the PGA while he made a switch back to his old swing coach. The results of that move have been nothing less than phenomenal. Hovland posted a solid T24 on his first event back, a result which led to a T3 at the PGA Championship, where he gained a heady 11.1 strokes ball-striking.

And though Hovland wasn’t able to keep himself in contention last weekend at Muirfield, whose thick rough eventually wore him down, his T15 finish there again saw him strike the ball as well as anyone not named Scottie Scheffler.

Widely available at +2000 this week and coming off a weekend where he wasn’t wearing himself down in the thick of contention, Hovland is a player I’m happy to bet on at this price point. His odds aren't as long as the +5000 that was available for him at the PGA, but they're still bigger than the price we saw on him in several futures markets back in December of last year.

Tommy Fleetwood

Outright (+4000, FanDuel)
Top-10 (+230, FanDuel)

Fleetwood failed to pay off for us last week at Muirfield Village, but like Hovland, he didn’t play poorly. Fleetwood will also benefit from having a weekend where he played outside of the pressure of contention. The Englishman has been treading water, so to speak, since a T3 at the year’s first major in April. But since then, he's maintained solid approach numbers and been showing more and more confidence with the flatstick, having gained over 1.5 strokes putting in each of his last three PGA starts.

Another similarity Fleetwood shares with Hovland is that he's no stranger to links play. Fleetwood's record at the Open Championship (second place in 2019 and fourth in 2022) showcases someone who would rather be on a course that requires some creative thinking and strategy than a straightforward slog fest where the most robotic and strongest player often wins.

His best U.S. Open finishes have also come at some of the more unique U.S. Open stops. Fleetwood conquered the lightning greens of Shinnecock Hills in 2018 better than most, and he also did well at the expansive Erin Hills, where the massive fairways made hitting from the rough less of a factor.

Ideally, Fleetwood's odds would have drifted into the +5000 range this week, but his record in majors, especially as of late, means that they won't go that high again in these events unless his form takes a major dip.

Ultimately, given the nature of this week’s setup, where sandy lies and links-styled greens replace the usual U.S. Open fanfare, I'm still happy to take a slightly bigger number than we saw on Fleetwood last week and have him on the card. He’s proven too adept at these big events not to at least have a piece of him in the top 10 market (or as an each-way bet), but I remain committed to seeing him pay off these bigger prices for an eventual outright as well.

Hideki Matsuyama

Each-way 1/5 top-8 (+4500, Bet365)
Top-20 (+187, Bet365)

In a year where few players have been able to reach the same kind of lofty heights that Scheffler has, it’s curious indeed that we can still bet Hideki Matsuyama as big as +4500 in the outright market. The 32-year-old produced a scorching stretch of golf before Augusta that included a win in a signature field event, a top-10 at the PLAYERS, and another top-10 at the Valero Texas Open.

Moreover, while we typically think of Matsuyama as a pure ball-striker, his around-the-green game has been best in class this season. In fact, he’s currently ranked first in around-the-green stats over both short and long-term form. The lingering neck issue Matsuyama dealt with before and just after the Masters (and has dealt with on and off for much of his career) is still a concern. However, his performance last week, a T8 at the Memorial, certainly put to bed any lingering questions about his health in the short term.

It remains to be seen whether or not Matsuyama will be able to figure out the secrets of Pinehurst to the same extent that Kaymer did back in 2014. But his recent form and history at this event as well as at other similar-styled venues suggest the ability to do so is there.

While I’ve chosen to take a smaller number and use the each-way market available on Bet365 for Matsuyama, the thought process of including him as an outright play remains the same. From a talent perspective, his upside is arguably as high as anyone’s outside of Scheffler.

Plus, the lack of rough this week and less traditional setup should also be advantages for a player who has excelled at venues like Augusta, TPC Scottsdale, and TPC Sawgrass, all of which generally require more creativity and thought than a regular U.S. Open venue.

2024 U.S. Open Longshot Bet

Daniel Berger

Outright (+50000, FanDuel)
Top-20 (+600, DraftKings)

When the U.S. Open was played at Pinehurst in 2014, two players tied for second place that season: Rickie Fowler and Erik Compton. Fowler had missed the cut in two of his previous three starts coming in that season, and Compton was a 34-year-old journeyman who went off around 500-1 or bigger in the betting markets.

Suffice it to say that around a venue as volatile as Pinehurst with its sandy waste areas and turtle shell greens, anything can and probably will happen. That leads me to one of my more interesting calls of the week, a complete flier on former top-10 player in the world, Daniel Berger.

Berger played in this event back in 2014 as a rookie and finished T28, but he also shot 66 in the final round. He and Martin Kaymer, who shot 65 in Rounds 1 and 2, were the only two players to shoot under 67 that year.

Jun 2, 2022; Dublin, Ohio, USA; Daniel Berger hits his third shot on the 11th hole during Round 1 of the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio on June 2, 2022. Pga 1st Memorial Tournament Photo Credit: Kyle Robertson/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK

Berger’s recent 18-month hiatus away from golf due to a back injury has been well documented, but he’s now played full bore for six months and has shown signs that his A-game may be back soon. He’s been a leader in fairways gained off the tee over the last month or so, and Berger also finished T13 last month at the Byron Nelson in May, where he gained 2.3 strokes on approach.

At his height, Berger was a fierce competitor and grew up playing tight lies and courses with a lot of variables and penalty areas around Florida. He took down Collin Morikawa in a playoff at Colonial in the first event after the COVID stoppage in 2020, and Berger has two career top-10s at the U.S. Open, including one from 2018 when he went off in the final group on Sunday.

Coming off a 65 he shot in U.S. Open qualifying, his 500-1 price in the outright market seems far too big to me even if his actual win equity is quite small. He's also appealing as a first-round leader or top-20 target. Berger's price is about on par with Tiger Woods, who's 15 years older than him, has worse back issues, and who's only made two starts this season.

Matchup and Placement Bets for the 2024 U.S. Open

Sergio Garcia

Top-20 (+450, DraftKings)
Top-40 (+140, Bet365)

Garcia is as big as +25000 in the outright market on FanDuel, but he’s a player who likely makes more sense to target in placement and matchup bets this week. The Spaniard has played solid golf on the alternate LIV Golf Tour all season, having posted three top-five finishes there in eight starts, including two playoff losses.

It’s also worth noting that while Garcia’s record at the other majors has fallen off, his U.S. Open record remains solid. He finished T27 at LA Country Club last season and has six top-40 finishes at this major, two of which have come over the last three years.

Garcia’s experience is also a factor this week, as he’s one of a handful of players who played Pinehurst back in 2014 (T35). His record at places like TPC Sawgrass (winner in 2008) and the Open (second in 2007 and in 2014) suggests that Garcia may be able to find a little more success here than a normal U.S. Open at this stage in his career. I like the idea of playing him in both the top-20 and top 40 markets this week.

Tom Kim over Sahith Theegala

+450, DraftKings

Both of these players have shown solid upside as of late, but I’ll give the edge to Kim. He's shown a liking for Donald Ross designs, having won the Wyndham Championship at Sedgefield back in 2022.

Kim’s also an accurate driver whose putter has been able to handle some very fast greens well in the past, including last year at the U.S. Open at LA Country Club, where he finished T8.

Jun 6, 2024; Dublin, Ohio, USA; Tom Kim plays his shot from the second tee during the first round of the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club. Mandatory Credit: Adam Cairns-USA TODAY Sports

On the flip side, Theegala’s putter has lost him multiple strokes in each of his last two starts and hasn’t been as reliable as it was early on in the season. He’ll also be making his fourth U.S. Open start this season and has yet to finish better than T27 at this event.

These are two great, young players with bright futures, but right now, Kim’s level of play seems to be on a better upward trajectory while Theegala’s may have leveled off. With the South Korean set as the underdog, I'm willing to take a side in this matchup and go with Kim to down his American competitor.

First Round Leader Bets for the 2024 U.S. Open

There doesn't seem to be a huge advantage in first round leader bets this week as far as the weather is concerned. As such, I’m going to mostly avoid playing one wave heavily and simply back some of the players I’ve already mentioned above for small wagers in this market as well. I've listed my favorite ways to bet them below at the best prices available.