Best Bets for The Memorial Tournament 2024
Geoff Ulrich breaks down the Memorial 2024, including a course preview, course history, best bets, and more.
The Memorial begins a stretch on the PGA TOUR that will see the top players compete in two signature events and a major over the next three weeks. While many will have their eyes on next week and Pinehurst #2 (site of this year’s U.S. Open), there are several big names who will be looking at this year’s Memorial.
The Memorial has become a signature event with a $20 million prize purse, so it's a great chance to eke out a statement win and capitalize on some gains made early on in 2023. And even with the event changes that have seen the field cut down to 72 from 120 golfers, this event will still maintain a lot of its past uniqueness.
The host venue continues to be the Jack Nicklaus-designed Muirfield Village, one of the crown jewels of the PGA schedule. The field will again feature an eclectic group of invitees, including Jackson Koivun, the 2024 Jack Nicklaus award winner and currently the fourth-ranked amateur in the world. Here are a few other quick notes about the event:
- It’s a 72-man field with the cut line taking place after Friday (top 50 players and ties).
- Masters winner Scottie Scheffler leads the field in betting odds (see below) and is one of three players with odds shorter than +1000 in this field.
- The Memorial continues to be an Invitational but is also now a Signature Event with a $20 million prize purse, of which a whopping $3.6 million will go to the winner.
- This year’s exemptions to the Memorial are Jackson Koivun, Billy Horschel, Brandt Snedeker, Matt Kuchar and Alex Noren.
- This event has been won by a top-20 player in the OWGR in four of the past five seasons, and the winner’s betting odds closed at under +2500 on all four of those occasions.
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The Memorial Tournament 2024 Betting Odds
Scheffler comes in as a +360 favorite this week, which is even shorter than his odds were at the Masters back in April. Behind him, Xander Schauffele has now gained co-second favorite status with Rory McIlroy, who's the only one of the big three to have played last week in Canada.
Here are the top 10 golfers in betting odds per DraftKings for the Memorial 2024:
| Name | Odds (DraftKings) | Last start |
| Scottie Scheffler | +360 | T2 - Colonial |
| Xander Schauffele | +900 | win - PGA |
| Rory McIlroy | +900 | T4 - Canada |
| Collin Morikawa | +1400 | T4 - Colonial |
| Viktor Hovland | +1800 | T3 - PGA |
| Ludvig Aberg | +2200 | MC - PGA |
| Patrick Cantlay | +2500 | T53 - PGA |
| Justin Thomas | +2800 | T8 - PGA |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +3500 | T21 – Canada |
| Max Homa | +4000 | MC - Colonial |
Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland are the other two players to have moved under +2000 in odds despite both men having gone winless thus far on the season. Two-time Memorial winner Patrick Cantlay has moved down to +2500, which is bigger than his pre-event odds from 2019 or 2021, the two years in which he won this event.
Course Preview for The Memorial Tournament
Muirfield Village - Dublin, OH
- Par 72
- 7,589 yards
- Greens: Bentgrass
- Designer: Jack Nicklaus
Past winners
- 2023: Viktor Hovland +2000
- 2022: Billy Horschel +6000
- 2021: Patrick Cantlay +1900
- 2020: Jon Rahm +2200
- 2019: Patrick Cantlay +1800
Muirfield Village was built in 1972 and named after Jack Nicklaus’s favorite Open Championship venue, Muirfield. It also shares some design similarities with Augusta National, which Nicklaus modeled it after.
The venue plays as a traditional par 72 and carries four par 5s, which tend to be the easiest holes on the course. The venue was lengthened somewhat in renovations over the past couple of seasons, though, so those holes aren’t necessarily the pushovers they once were.
That was reflected to a degree in the scoring from 2023, which saw the winner get in the clubhouse at 7-under par. The course can now play as long as 7,600 yards and has completely renovated bentgrass greens, which often play as some of the fastest on the PGA TOUR.
From a stat perspective, the changes at Muirfield have also brought about an increased emphasis on around-the-green play. Two of the past three winners have gained over 4.0 strokes around the greens for the week, and 2022 winner Billy Horschel gained 5.2 strokes ATG that year.
May 24, 2024; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; Billy Horschel plays his shot from the eighth tee during the second round of the Charles Schwab Challenge golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports
Horschel also excelled on approach, and with some of the smallest greens on the PGA, good approach play will be paramount to success at this venue.
With seven par 4s measuring over 450 yards, there aren’t a ton of birdie chances available, which is also likely to make bogey avoidance a key stat. 2022 winner Horschel led the field in this stat by a wide margin that year, and 2021 winner Patrick Cantlay was second in bogey avoidance during the year of his win.
Despite its length, Muirfield Village isn’t necessarily a course where you have to be a pure bomber to excel. Last year’s playoff loser Denny McCarthy is one of the shorter hitters on TOUR and lost strokes off the tee for the week, but he still had a solid week on approach (+3.7), which is the truest path to success at this venue.
Since we don’t necessarily need to favor one style of player over another, it could also be easier to identify some potential value in the betting department this week. I’d look for players who are trending well on approach with either a good history of putting well on fast greens or scrambling on tough courses over players with shorter odds who are getting respect for slamming it off the tee or due to one good result at another longer course.
Stat notes
- Each of the past four winners gained over 2.5 strokes on approach as well as over 5.0 strokes ball-striking (OTT +AP).
- Three of the past four winners gained over 4.0 strokes around the greens for the week.
- Three of the last four winners finished first or second in bogey avoidance.
Best Bets for The Memorial Tournament 2024
Below are my favorite betting targets for the week. While they are all outright plays for me, I like playing these names in the placing department as well. As such, I’ve included placing options for each name if you'd like to construct a betting card and want exposure to both options (or only want to bet some players for a place).
Additionally, if you have the ability to make each-way bets (win and place bets in one), then I’ve included that option for some players as well where the odds are relevant.
For more information on how each-way bets work you can click here.
Justin Thomas
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I’ve stayed away from betting on Justin Thomas for most of 2024, but this recent stretch of his makes him a good buyback option this week.
On top of having produced a T5 finish at the signature event in Hilton Head and a T8 at the year’s second major, Thomas has shown far better upside off the tee, having gained an average of 2.36 strokes OTT over his last three starts. Not many players are better with a mid-to-long iron in their hand than Thomas, so if he's bombing it off the tee and able to find more fairways than usual, then Thomas isn't a hard sell for me at his current price.
Thomas is also very familiar with this part of the United States, having grown up in nearby Kentucky. He’s also won in Ohio before, having taken down the former WGC Bridgestone event at Firestone CC in nearby Akron on another longer, tree-lined setup.
May 19, 2024; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Justin Thomas putts on the first green during the final round of the PGA Championship golf tournament at Valhalla Golf Club. Mandatory Credit: Matt Stone-USA TODAY Sports
In addition, he’s shown good upside at this week’s venue, having posted top-10 finishes at the Memorial back in 2017 and 2018. Thomas also lost in a playoff at Muirfield back in 2020 at the Workday Championship, a makeshift event the PGA created due to COVID.
While his putter continues to be a bit of a roller coaster ride, Thomas’s tee-to-green game has always been the true barometer. And right now, that part of his game is the best it's been for quite a while. At an event that undoubtedly holds some special meaning to him given its connections to Tiger and Nicklaus, I’m happy to add Thomas at what could still be considered “pre-breakout prices” in the outright and top-5 markets.
You can bet on Thomas at FanDuel, where you can get up to $150 in bonus bets when you sign up below and place your first bet of just $5 or more!
Tommy Fleetwood
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Fleetwood’s an easy man to write off this week in some respects, especially for those who only look at results instead of the underlying stats. He missed out on another decent opportunity last week up in Canada thanks in large part due to a nightmarish start in Sunday’s final round, which included his opening drive somehow finding the base of a tree. Fleetwood is also lacking in course experience at Muirfield, having only played here twice before in 2015 and 2017 (missed both cuts).
The contrarian view of Fleetwood, the one I prefer (shocker), is that those past results at this event don't mean much. He's become a far more complete player later on in his career, which makes Fleetwood now more capable of taking on a challenge like Muirfield. Having finally conquered the very comparable Augusta National with a third place finish earlier this season, he should also relish coming to another comparable tree-lined setup with lightning-fast greens. This is a style of setup he’s often excelled on in his U.S. Open appearances.
Additionally, while you can poke holes in his T21 finish from last week, it’s hard to deny the upside that Fleetwood recently showed with his irons at Hamilton, where he gained a season-high 5.5 strokes on approach. That mark was the fourth-best of his career in that category and a performance that certainly bodes well for his chances this week around Memorial’s small green structures.
Fleetwood was as low as +1600 last week, and while that number may have been too short, there's certainly an argument that his prices this week are an overreaction, as he's now set at nearly 2.5 times his odds from Canada. Either way, I’m happy to have Fleetwood as an outright this week and like his chances of at least paying off for a place in the top-10 or top-five markets.
Tony Finau
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It’s been a frustrating year for Finau and an even more frustrating one for Finau bettors. The American comes into this week with just one top-five finish on the season, a T2 at a non-signature field event (Houston Open). Additionally, while he’s displayed heady ball-striking stats that would make even some of the best players on TOUR gush, he’s blown opportunities to cash in on his long-game success by being a week-to-week nightmare on the greens.
Despite the seemingly endless cold spell with his putter, this kind of slump with the flat stick is nothing new for Finau, and it's likely something we’ll see him pull out of again soon. Before his last win on the PGA at the 2023 Mexico Open, where he gained 4.7 strokes putting, Finau had lost strokes on the greens in four of his previous seven starts.
May 19, 2024; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Tony Finau tees off on the third hole during the final round of the PGA Championship golf tournament at Valhalla Golf Club. Mandatory Credit: Matt Stone-USA TODAY Sports
Finau had also been up and down with the putter before his well-documented 2022 breakthrough, where he won in back-to-back weeks. He'd even missed the cut at the U.S. Open just a month before those wins.
He's hit the ball well enough to win this year in the majority of his starts, so when the putts do eventually start to drop, it’s almost a guarantee that we'll see Finau rise up to the top of the leaderboard late on a Sunday. He’s shown upside at this venue before, even having led here back in 2020 after two rounds. Plus, Finau certainly comes in as a player with something to prove, having produced fewer top finishes than he should've to this point in the season.
Given that he’s now up to +6500 at some books (prices that dwarf his pre-Masters odds), I have no issues adding him as an outright play. However, Finau also sticks out as one of my favorite top-10 targets at +300 or better given the great combination of recent form and course fit that he delivers.
The Memorial Placement and Matchup Bets
Rickie Fowler Top-20 (+250, DraftKings)
- Play to +230
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Fowler gained over 7.8 strokes ball-striking in his last start at Colonial and has been much improved off the tee over his last two starts. That’s good news, as he’s generally bled strokes off the tee for much of the season.
Muirfield has also been a great course for Fowler. He’s finished runner-up here on two occasions and posted a top-10 at this venue last season while gaining over 2.0 strokes OTT, on APP, and ATG. Considering his uptick in consistency with the long game and his stellar 42% top-20 finish rate (six of 14) at this event, the +250 on offer (28% implied probability) looks worth taking.
You can tail the Fowler top-20 bet at DraftKings, where you can get up to $1,000 in No Sweat bets when you sign up below!
Davis Riley Top-20 (+330, DraftKings)
- Play to +300
Riley withdrew from last week’s event after his win at Colonial and should be well rested after having a full week off to celebrate his first solo PGA win. I’m of the opinion that the market remains too low on Riley, as he's a talented player who's shown a penchant for playing well on tougher courses with faster greens like Muirfield.
He finished T13 on his debut at this course back in 2022, and while asking him to win in back-to-back starts may be a little much, we can capitalize on a slow-to-adjust market by taking Riley at +300 or better this week in the top-20 markets.
Alex Noren over Denny McCarthy (-110, DraftKings)
- Play to -120
When it boils down to it, I’m happy to trust the stats that have Noren rated as the superior player over McCarthy. Though Noren missed the cut last week, he's seventh in strokes gained over the last 24 rounds and has been hitting greens and fairways with far more consistency than McCarthy, who comes in having lost strokes on approach in four straight starts.
McCarthy’s course history isn’t anything to sneeze at (he’s finished second and T5 at Muirfield the past two seasons), but course history can be volatile. Plus, McCarthy’s first two visits to Muirfield produced a MC and a T58. Ultimately, Noren just has a far safer floor this week due to his overall game being in better form, and that seems undervalued in this matchup at the current price.