Welcome to the weekly PGA betting breakdown article. This week we’re going to be treated to some epic links golf thanks to the Open Championship, the final major of the 2024 season.  

I went over the course and some betting trends on Monday in the early week Open Championship course preview. If you haven’t familiarized yourself with Royal Troon yet, I recommend you do so. Troon is a tighter, technical test that has some of the toughest pot bunkers we see on the rota of Open courses. To make things even better, the wind is also expected to be up this week, which means we will likely see some solid implosions before Sunday is all said and done. 

There were many meltdowns on this course back in 2016 (the last time it hosted the Open), but none better than this one by Thomas Pieters.

Links sickos, rejoice, our salvation may be at hand. 

Today, though, instead of going through the course again, I’m honing in on specific bets and creating our weekly betting card, which I’ll summarize at the bottom of the article.

Side note: If you’re looking for more plays (across NFL, MLB, NBA, college, and NHL) don’t forget to check our FREE Bet Tracker, where our group of experts are always loading their favorite bets. I’ve already got some futures in there for NFL and will be adding more as we get closer to preseason. 

To give you an idea of how this event has played out of late, here is a quick rundown of the past three winners of the Open, and how they achieved their victory.

2023 – Brian Harman (+10000) -13 (Royal Liverpool)

• Harman came in off of three good starts last year, where he was gaining a lot of strokes on approach; he finished T12 in Scotland the week before
• Harman had also finished T6 at the Open in 2022
• He shot a second-round 65 at Royal Liverpool and took a commanding lead, then hung on for a six-stroke win after the conditions on the weekend deteriorated

2022 – Cameron Smith (+2800) -20 (St. Andrews)

• Smith also came in off the back of some very good recent finishes and was hitting the ball extremely well with his irons all season
• He finished T10 the week before in Scotland
• Smith made up six strokes on the leaders in Round 4 after a poor third round set him back. 
• The Open was played at St. Andrews this season, in mostly benign conditions, and allowed Smith to get to 20 under par in the win.

2021 – Collin Morikawa (+4000) -15 (Royal St. George’s) 

• Like the other two recent winners, Morikawa was coming in off a hot stretch of summer starts; he had just finished T4 at the US Open the month prior, gaining 8.3 strokes on approach in the start
• 2021 was also the first Open Championship start of his career, making him a very rare debutant winner
• Morikawa led the field in around the green play, and like Smith he also benefited from some easier conditions on the weekend.

Before we get to the good stuff, here are a few more notes about the 2024 Open Championship to keep in mind.

• It’s a 158-man field, with the cut line taking place after Friday. The top 70 players and ties will make the weekend. 
• Late qualifiers from last week include Alex Noren, Aaron Rai, and Richard Mansell. 
• Scottie Scheffler is back after taking last week off. He leads the field in betting odds (+450, DraftKings). He’s only played in three Opens prior to this season and his best finish was a T8 at Royal St. George’s in 2021.
• Tiger Woods is playing in his first PGA event since the US Open. The majors have been disappointing for Tiger to date as he finished T60 at Augusta and missed the cut at the PGA and US Open. 
• The weather this week looks much more blustery than it was last week. Gusts of 20+ mph are expected for Friday and Saturday. 
• Overall, with the course also having been lengthened since 2016, I’d expect scoring to be higher than we saw back in 2016 and for this course to present a fair but tough test of golf this week. 

As mentioned in the course preview, I’m targeting approach play specifically this week, and with cooler weather, great mid-to-long players who have upside on these slower greens should flourish. 

Betting Odds for The Open Championship 2024

2024 Open Championship Top 10 names in betting odds (DraftKings)

2024 Open Championship Best Bets

Below are my favorite betting targets for the week. I’ve created an entire card you can peruse at the end and also added unit sizing for each play. 

While I have a handful of outright plays, I do like playing many of these names in the placing department, or as matchup plays as well. I’ve also included placing options for some names if you want exposure to both options (or only want to bet some players for a place).

Additionally, if you have the ability to make each-way bets (win and place bets in one), I’ve included that option for some players as well where the odds are relevant. 

For more information on how each-way bets work, you can click here. 

Patrick Cantlay Outright (+4400; FanDuel)

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• Top 10 (+400; DraftKings)

I can hear you all in the background already—oh joy, he’s starting us off with Cantlay again. 

Admittedly, after a few blown calls with Cantlay already this year, I do feel a little like hammered Don Draper as I start my pitch for the American, who has struggled at times to get into contention at majors. However, while there is reason to be skeptical, I also feel confident in my analysis that the mix of price and timing for him has never been better. 

Jun 22, 2024; Cromwell, Connecticut, USA; Patrick Cantlay tees off on the third hole during the third round of the Travelers Championship golf tournament at TPC River Highlands. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

Despite coming into this year’s Open off a T5 at the Travelers and a T3 at the year’s third major, Cantlay remains available at +4000 or bigger, levels that make far more sense than the +2200 price we were getting on him in 2023. That 2023 price is also a good reminder that we’d often see Cantlay go off at majors at the same level, or with lower odds, than recent major winner Xander Schauffele (+1100), who is now rightfully being rated as one of the event favorites. 

It’s true that Schauffele has the much fuller trophy case (for now), but the skill level between the two when they are both on is likely minimal at best. And certainly, with Cantlay also having outperformed Schauffele in each of his last two starts (T3 US Open; T5 Travelers), the 30.0-point gap in odds in the outright market right now is too much. 

Cantlay’s playing the Open for the sixth time this season, and at 32 years of age, he also fits perfectly in our target demographic of players: names who are still in the prime of their career but who have also built up a lot of experience and knowledge of links golf. The American should also relish this technical track and its smaller targets, a feature that makes it somewhat similar in setup to venues like Hilton Head and TPC Stadium, courses that Cantlay has thrived on most of his career. 

Still dripping with low sentiment after an up-and-down season (on and off the course), I think he’s a nice starting point for outright bets this week at +4000 or bigger, in an event where each of the past five winners has gone off at +2800 or bigger. 

Tyrrell Hatton Outright Each Way 1/5 Top 8 (+2800; bet365)

A tough technical links course, with some wind, where great ball striking and making pars will be key? If that’s not Tyrrell Hatton’s calling card then I don’t know what is. Hatton’s been great since making the jump over to LIV and is coming off a 3rd place finish at LIV Andalucia where he finished one shot out of a playoff. 

Here’s some more of why I like Hatton so much this week, from the Course Preview I wrote on Monday:

“From a tee to green perspective, Hatton was right up with the leaders at the US Open, where he gained 3.4 strokes off the tee and 3.6 strokes around the green, but faltered on Pinehurst’s slick greens. The slower fescue at the Open venues has always appealed more to him and it’s no shock that his best results in major championships have come in the British Isles, where he’s landed four top 20 finishes over his last seven Open starts. 

At his best, Hatton is a full-fleshed striper of the golf ball, who managed a T5 at Troon during the 2016 Open. While he never threatened the lead in ‘16, he shot four rounds of par or better that year, a result that will breed confidence this week on a course that is set to play 150-200 yards longer than it did eight years ago.”

I think Hatton is primed for a big win and I would happily play him down to +2500 this week as an outright. I took him as an each-way (win and place), but getting some exposure to him as a top-five play (along with your outright bet) can provide the same kind of exposure for those looking to tail me on the Englishman.

Tommy Fleetwood Outright (+2200; bet365)

Fleetwood continued to showcase solid ball-striking at the Scottish Open. He only managed a T37 finish last week, but gained 3.1 strokes off the tee and 3.7 strokes on approach in the effort. That also comes one start after his T15 at the Travelers where he gained 5.1 strokes on approach.

The 33-year-old has already posted a top 10 finish at a major championship this season in April (T3 Augusta) and leads the field in strokes gained total stats at the Open Championship over the past 5 seasons, posting a career-best 2nd place finish at the event in 2019. 

From a trend perspective, he has a ton in common with past winners of this major, sitting with the perfect blend of experience and form that has allowed recent winners like Shane Lowry, Brian Harman, and Francesco Molinari to triumph. 

His odds are nowhere near ideal (given his lack of PGA wins), but he’s also earned a lot of that price through outperformance at this major and other big events this season. The bottom line is that if Fleetwood is ever going to win a major, this event will always stand out as his best opportunity. One of the most well-rounded players in the field, who is now striking the ball as well as he has in years, I don’t mind paying “the toll” down to +2200 this week, so to speak, to get exposure to him for one more event this summer. 

Louis Oosthuizen Outright Each-Way 1/5 Top 8 (+6600; bet365)

Oosthuizen is an interesting player to note as we head into the final major. He’s had an extremely solid season over on LIV, posting five top 10s and two runner-up finishes over 11 starts. However, despite gaining invitations to each of the last two majors, Oosthuizen has instead chosen to bypass those events for more rest. 

It’s a curious decision on its face, but also not one that lacks merit. At 41, he’s likely too old to challenge on courses that span 7,500 yards in length and certainly needs the right type of conditions now to get himself in contention at these big events. However, as a past Open Champion with one of the best swings in the game, he’s also fully capable of handling tough conditions and has the experience necessary to navigate a more technical links setup like Troon, where we saw 40-year-old Henrik Stenson triumph back in 2016. 

I bet Oosthuizen when he was still at +10000 late last week, but even as we get closer to the start of this event (and his odds have dropped), I still believe there is value in betting on the South African at these levels. He’s benefited from the softer schedule on LIV, has finished top 3 at this major three times in his career already, is an amazing wind player, and is beyond overdue for getting a big win to cap what has already been an outstanding career in the sport. 

Victor Perez Each-Way 1/5 Top 12 (+16000; bet365)

• Top 20 (+500; bet365)

After landing a big top 10 (+1400) and top 20 (+650) with a Frenchman in Romain Langasque last week, I felt obliged to include one in my Open bets as well. It wasn’t a hard sell, to be honest, as Victor Perez is a player I’ve had my eye on all season. He’s already produced two top-five finishes (T3 Canada; T3 Puerto Rico) and is a gifted ball striker with a knack for producing some low final rounds. 

Jun 21, 2024; Cromwell, Connecticut, USA; Victor Perez putts on the first hole during the second round of the Travelers Championship golf tournament at TCP River Highlands. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

Perez is coming off a very solid week in Scotland where he gained 6.0 strokes putting and has also been great off the tee in his last two starts, gaining over 2.0 strokes in that area on both occasions. If he can get back to his baseline with his irons, he could surprise at Troon, a course which is sure to reward the top ball strikers in the field. 

A veteran links player and former Alfred Dunhill Links winner, I bet Perez a couple of different ways this week, including top 20 (where I’d play him down to +450) and as an each-way with a top 12 placing (+16000; bet365). He makes a lot of sense to me as a longshot who could potentially make up a lot of ground on the field this weekend IF he can make enough putts the first two days to survive the cut.  

2024 Open Championship Placement and Specialty Bets 

Tiger Woods to Make the Cut (+230; FanDuel)

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There are some things you just don’t do in life. You don’t go to Costco on the weekends. You don't tell your wife to calm down. You don’t draft kickers before round 17. And, most importantly, you don’t blatantly disrespect Tiger Woods. 

Fortunately for us, Colin Montgomerie recently chose to ignore that last statement. 

I’ll also just note that Tiger looks a little slimmer to me since we last saw him at Pinehurst and also has what looks like a decent draw (TH PM / FRI AM)—which would see him miss the worst of the wind on the first two days (for now). The shorter course this week also plays in his favor. I’d happily play him down to +150 in this market.

Nick Taylor Top 40 (+250; bet365)

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• Top 20 (+800; bet365)

When looking back in the field for a good longshot to outperform this week, Nick Taylor is a player who immediately stood out. He’s been snakebitten on the greens of late, which has led to some poor finishes, but his approach game and around-the-green play have been fantastic. He gained over 2.0 strokes around the greens at the Renaissance Club and has hit his irons extremely well two events in a row now, gaining 3.1 strokes and 2.8 strokes over those respective starts.

Taylor may only be playing in his second Open, but he’s a veteran who has won in tough conditions at Pebble Beach, has a slick short game, and is well overdue for a little regression on the greens. He’s not a player with the length off the tee to contend at Augusta or the US Open, but a more technical track like Troon, where distance isn’t as big a factor, lends itself more to his style of game. 

He’s got enormous to-win odds (+44000; bet365) and I’ve placed a small outright wager on him (just in case), but he makes better sense to me as a ladder betting target through both the top 20 and top 40 markets. 

Akshay Bhatia Top Debutant (+1000; bet365)

The debutant market stood out to me as a place where we can capture a little value with one of the best young players in the game. Bhatia already has a win on the PGA this season and was potentially just one five-foot putt away from getting his second win of the year in Detroit in his last start. Even so, he’s still available at +1000 in this market and nearly 10x bigger than field favorite Ludvig Aberg (+125), who is coming in off a terrible Sunday at the Renaissance Club where he drove it all over the grounds in the final round. 

The heartbreak from Detroit aside, it’s hard not to love Bhatia’s profile or lead-up for this event either. He’s long and straight off the tee, has vastly improved his putting, and gained +5.9 strokes on approach in his last start. A technical test like Troon should be perfect for him, and if he can get a grip on how to handle the tough greenside runoffs and pot bunkers, he’s even a player I could see popping up near the lead on Sunday. 

Bhatia would be an unlikely winner (just due to this being his first-ever Open) but he’s certainly capable of posting a finish capable of toppling the contenders in the debutant market. As long as the gap between him and Aberg remains high, it stands out as a good way to get exposure to his upside this week.  

Jesper Svensson Top Debutant (+6600 each-way 1/4 Top Three; bet365)

I’ll take one more stab in this market with Swedish pro Jesper Svensson, who also won earlier in the year in Singapore on the DP World Tour. Svensson’s already made a cut in a major (T53 US Open) in 2024 which does set him apart somewhat in this very open and inexperienced field. He’s coming off two decent starts, including a T34 last week in the Scottish Open where he gained an eye-catching 3.9 strokes on approach against a tougher field. 

Given that he’s already secured his DP World Tour card for next year with a win, he’ll be playing with house money this week in some respects and should be full of confidence after a solid showing against a PGA-laden field last week. 

I played him as an each-way on bet365 (+6600) with a top 3 placing and would happily bet him down to +5000. 

Full Card: 

• Hatton +2800 EW-8 | .6 units outright / .6 units place
• Patrick Cantlay +4400 .45 unit | +400 .55 top 10
• Fleetwood +2200 | 0.8 outright
• Louis Oosthuizen +10000 EW-8 / .25 unit / .25 unit
• Victor Perez +16000 EW-Top 12 | .1 unit | .1 unit | .5 unit (top 20 +500)
• Nick Taylor +240 top 40 .45 units / top 20 +750 .15 units

(Note: If you need help weighing unit sizes, don’t forget to use the FREE Fantasy Life Betting Calculator.)