CFB Best Bets: Expert Picks and Player Props For 2 Early Bowl Games
Thor Nystrom shares his best bets for the IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl and the Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl: Memphis vs. West Virginia
Saturday, Dec. 14
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl: South Alabama vs. Western Michigan
Spread: South Alabama -7.5 | Adjusted Thor Line: South Alabama -10.9
9 p.m. | ESPN, Cramton Bowl. Montgomery, Alabama
Noteworthy Portal, Opt-out and Injury News:
South Alabama
- RB1 Fluff Bothwell (Portal)
- Starting CB Jordan Scruggs (Portal)
- QB1 Gio Lopez (Injury)
- Starting RG Reed Buys (Injury)
Western Michigan
- TE1 Blake Bosma
- Starting EDGE Corey Walker
- Rotational DL Anterio Thompson
Handicap
South Alabama QB Gio Lopez is questionable. QB2 Bishop Davenport will get the call if Lopez can’t go. This would be a significant downgrade – I think Lopez is a P4 talent (he recently stated that he’s staying at USA for the 2025 season).
The Jags will be able to make up for RB Fluff Bothwell’s absence easier by simply giving most of his usage to fellow committee RB Kentrel Bullock. This is one reason we like the over on Bullock at 82.5 rushing yards in the prop market.
Western Michigan’s absences are probably a bit more problematic than meets the eye. TE Blake Bosma is easily the team’s best pass-catching option. Bosma caught all 37 of his catchable targets this fall to lead the team in receptions. He had three-times as many receiving TDs (6) as anyone else on the roster (2).
Meanwhile, WMU’s rancid No. 120-ranked SP+ defense could not really afford the losses of two stalwarts on the line. Thompson isn’t a good run defender, but he can rush the passer. His loss cleaves what was a three-man DL rotation down to two, with little-used players elevated to take his snaps.
The Walker loss hurts the most. He was arguably the team’s best defender. Walker was a very good run-defending presence on the EDGE – South Alabama may look to attack his replacements.
Western Michigan’s run defense wasn’t good to begin with, and it’s going to be worse in this game. In addition to riding the Bullock train, we’re fading WMU RB Jaden Nixon at 61.5 rushing yards. Nixon has been the clear RB3 in this rotation for over a month. The last three games, he averaged 5.3 carries for 9.0 rushing yards per game.
If Lopez plays, we’d want to be on South Alabama laying up to -9.5. But since his status is unclear at the time of this publishing, we’re sticking to the props.
Thor’s Bets:
- South Alabama RB Kentrell Bullock Over 82.5 Rushing Yards
- WMU RB Jaden Nixon Under 61.5 Rushing Yards
Tuesday, Dec. 17
Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl: Memphis vs. West Virginia
Spread: Memphis -4.5 | ATL: Memphis -1.3
9 p.m. | ESPN, Toyota Stadium, Frisco, Texas
Noteworthy Portal, Opt-out and Injury News:
Memphis
- None
West Virginia
- Starting WR Traylon Ray (Injury OFY)
- Starting LB Josiah Trotter
- Starting CB Ayden Garnes (Injury OFY)
- Starting S Aubrey Burks (Injury OFY)
Analysis
At the time of publishing, Memphis has stayed clean of opt-outs. Last time out, the Tigers upset Tulane, 34-24, on Thanksgiving as 13-point underdogs.
Tigers RB Mario Anderson is a potential opt-out. Anderson has rushed for 138-or-more yards in five of six. He played a stretch of bad run defenses during that period.
The game Anderson went under was against UTSA (53 yards), which has a very good run defense and a pass-funnel defense. West Virginia has an extreme pass-funnel defense. The Mountaineers have a solid run defense, ranking No. 51 success rate and No. 54 in yards per successful rush.
WVU’s pass defense, on the other hand, is a travesty. It ranks No. 129 in success rate and No. 128 in both yards/dropback and EPA/dropback. Memphis is going to find yards easier to come through in the air.
On the other side, we expect both WVU QB Garrett Greene and the stable of RBs he works with to have success on the ground against a Memphis defense that allows too many explosive runs.
West Virginia fired HC Neal Brown after a 52-15 loss to Texas Tech in the regular season finale. It was clear by the end of the season that the Brown era was over at West Virginia. The Mountaineers named OC Chad Scott interim HC for the bowl game.
Memphis HC Ryan Silverfield is 3-0 ATS and SU in his last three bowl games, with double-digit wins each time. With that caveat aside, we like the way West Virginia matches up in this game. We think they’ll give better effort now that the pressure of Brown’s situation has been relieved and an air of excitement has returned to the program following Rich Rodriguez’s hiring.
Thor’s Bets:
- West Virginia +4.5
- Memphis QB Seth Henigan Over 255.5 Passing Yards
- Memphis RB Mario Anderson Under 110.5 Rushing Yards