College Football Best Bets and Picks For Week 12: Can The Vols Cover vs Georgia?

The College Football season roars on and to guide us through the weekend, Thor Nystrom is here with his college football best bets and picks for Week 12:

This week's best bets include both ATS picks and player props across the Friday and Saturday slates, including a take on Houston QB Zeon Chriss, why taking Arkansas with the points is a strong bet, and more.

Best Bets For Week 12 of the College Football Season

Because the college football betting market moves so quickly, I input my bets early and immediately—as they happen—into our college football free bets tracker. I can’t recommend highly enough that you bookmark that page, so you can get the best lines before they move. Also, I rank all 134 FBS teams weekly—if you're here, you'll probably enjoy that, as well (we have strength of schedule and projected wins, too!).

“Adjusted Thor Line” is my model's spread. For a much deeper dive into that system, there's a full college football game model based on my projections.

Let's get to the picks.

College Football Best Bets For Week 12 - Friday Games

Arizona vs. Houston Pick

Adjusted Thor Line: Houston -1.7

Since starting 3-1, Arizona has gone into the tank. The Wildcats have lost five straight games as injuries have mounted. A shoddy defense has been exposed, and the one-handed offense is too predictable and mistake-prone to dig itself out of the holes it finds itself in. Three of the losses during the five-game skid were by 22 points or more.

Arizona has the nation’s worst ATS record. The market has failed to adjust to the Wildcats’ free fall. That remains the case this week, with my system installing Houston as the favorite in this game.

As Arizona has nose-dived, Houston has started to show signs of life under new HC Willie Fritz. The Cougars started 1-4, but are 3-1 since then. If Houston can win this game, they’ll only need to upset either Baylor or BYU to improbably rally into a bowl game.

Houston’s turnaround has come in conjunction with installing Zeon Chriss as QB1. Chriss is a superior runner to Donovan Smith, and he takes care of the ball better. Qualitatively, he’s provided a little more as a passer as well.

Chriss is a dynamic athlete. Fritz loves to use his quarterbacks as runners, and we expect Chriss to torture this shoddy Arizona run defense on the ground—we’re going over his 66.5 rushing yardage total at the books. In the last two weeks, Chriss has 39 carries. He rushed for 75 yards last week against Kansas State.

Houston’s defense will be the best unit on the field for either team on Saturday—it ranks No. 47 SP+ and has shown to be solid against both the run and pass. That defense will likely give issues to Arizona’s one-handed, pass-happy offense.

Houston keeps the ball on the ground and keeps things simple. If you pile up unforced errors – like Arizona does – the Cougars will take advantage of them.

Thor’s best bets for Arizona vs. Houston:

Houston +2.5
UH QB Zeon Chriss Over 66.5 Rushing Yards

Colorado State vs. Wyoming Pick

Colorado State has won four straight despite losing star WR Tory Horton for the season. The Rams have done that by refashioning themselves as a run-heavy offense, which has helped a rested defense play up.

That’s going to be the Rams’ strategy again as 10-point home favorites against Wyoming. In the past three games—all wins—CSU QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi has averaged 159.0 passing yards per game. During that stretch, he never topped 178 passing yards nor 21 passing attempts.

On the other side, playing from behind is going to help Wyoming QB Kaden Anderson get over his 171.5-passing-yard total. A redshirt freshman from Texas, Anderson appears to be a big upgrade over Evan Svoboda, who was mercilessly benched.

Anderson went 20-of-29 passing for 342 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception in his first career start last week at New Mexico. He was helped by the season debut of RB Harrison Waylee, Wyoming’s best offensive talent. Waylee ran for 170 yards.

The rising tide of Waylee’s return raised the offense’s boat, and Anderson is going to be a continued benefactor of extended drives. The sportsbooks are pricing Anderson like he’s Svoboda, even though Anderson is the better player and now playing in the superior overall offense.

Thor’s best bets for Colorado State vs. Wyoming:

Wyoming QB Kaden Anderson Over 171.5 Passing Yards
CSU QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi Under 197.5 Passing Yards

UTSA vs. North Texas Pick

Adjusted Thor Line: UTSA -5.2

UTSA is suddenly back in the bowl picture after winning two of three. Prior to last week’s bye, UTSA upset Memphis. UTSA QB Owen McCown (20/4 TD/INT rate) should have a big day against North Texas’ shoddy pass defense. It’s difficult to envision North Texas getting UTSA off the field.

North Texas started 5-1, with the only loss coming at Texas Tech. Since then, the injury bug has hit, and the Mean Green have lost three straight. That included a bizarre offensive meltdown in last week’s 14-3 loss to Army.

UNT failed to score after the opening drive, with QB Chandler Morris throwing two interceptions into the end zone in the fourth quarter. Morris finished with an ugly 214 passing yards on 37 attempts. We’re fading Morris at a bloated 354.5 passing yardage number in the prop market. Morris has gone under this number in five of nine games this season.

Thor’s best bets for UTSA vs. North Texas:

UTSA +2.5
UNT QB Chandler Morris Under 354.5 Passing Yards

Best Bets For Week 12 College Football - Saturday Games

Arkansas vs. Texas Pick

Adjusted Thor Line: Texas -12.1

In September, Texas didn’t play anybody. Since then, the Longhorns have throttled a couple of injury-decimated teams (Oklahoma and Florida), gotten spanked by Georgia, and been given a huge scare from Vanderbilt (a 27-24 win).

The jury is still out on the exact quality of this Texas team. But we know the Longhorns’ run defense isn’t elite (No. 55 success rate), we know that Texas can struggle to tackle in space (No. 56 tackle success rate), and we know that dual-threat QBs can give the Longhorns issues (Diego Pavia rushed for 67 yards and a TD in Vandy’s near-miss).

Arkansas, which has had two weeks to prepare for this game and get healthy coming off a bye, matches up well on paper. The Hogs effectively run the ball (No. 11 success rate and No. 20 EPA/run), and they stress defenses with an athletic dual-threat quarterback.

Arkansas QB Taylen Green—who was upgraded to probably on Wednesday, a sign that he’s been cleared for Saturday—has rushed for 553 yards this season with sacks omitted.

Arkansas has a really good run defense. The pass defense has been a problem this year. But how much will Texas truly exploit that after the Longhorns have become one-dimensional?

Before last weekend’s demolition of injury-wrecked Florida, UT QB Quinn Ewers had thrown at least one interception in four straight games. After coming into the season as a potential Round 1 NFL Draft prospect, Ewers is now probably best-served transferring this offseason for his final season of eligibility. I would imagine these thoughts have invaded his mind recently.

Arkansas beat Ole Miss and Auburn earlier this season, and the Hogs were close to upsetting Texas A&M. OC Bobby Petrino has had two weeks to study this Texas defense, and we expect Arkansas to have a compelling opponent-specific game plan in this game. We think the Hogs will prove to be harder to put away than the market is anticipating.

Thor’s best bet for Arkansas vs. Texas:

Arkansas +16.5

Georgia vs. Tennessee Pick

Adjusted Thor Line: Georgia -4.7

Speaking of Arkansas’ upset of Tennessee—that five-point setback is the only loss the Vols have taken all season. It’s exceedingly difficult to blow out Tennessee due to the Vols’ vaunted No. 3 SP+ defense.

That defense is probably the nation’s best against the run (No. 4 success rate, No. 1 EPA/run), and it has also greatly improved against the pass (No. 18 success rate, No. 5 EPA/dropback).

Tennessee is likely to shut out the lights on Georgia’s ideas of keeping the ball on the ground. That’ll incentivize the Bulldogs to throw even more. And that’s where things could get hairy for UGA—QB Carson Beck has thrown 12 interceptions in the past six games.

Tennessee’s offense has skewed more toward the run this season than in any previous campaign with HC Josh Heupel. This has allowed the Vols to stay ahead of the sticks all season. Star Vols RB Dylan Sampson was not listed on Wednesday’s injury report.

Vols QB Nico Iamaleava's status for this game looked promising early in the week, with Iamaleava participating in padded practices and Heupel expressing optimism. But a Tuesday report that Iamaleava was still in concussion protocol clouded that. For his part, Georgia HC Kirby Smart said on Wednesday that he assumes Iamaleava will play.

If Iamaleava cannot, Tennessee will turn to fifth-year senior QB Gaston Moore. Moore has been with Heupel for the past five years—ever since 2020 when he signed with Heupel as a true freshman at UCF. Moore followed Heupel to Knoxville, where he’s been a backup for four years.

Moore doesn’t have Iamaleava’s physical tools, but he knows how to run the offense and may not prove to be a big downgrade qualitatively on what we’ve seen from Iamaleava this season. Moore went 5-of-8 passes for 38 yards last week off the bench against Mississippi State.

As long as Tennessee is running the ball well, the Vols can give Georgia a game regardless of who is behind center. The Bulldogs run defense is a decent No. 25 in EPA/run, but has shown cracks, including a No. 81 standing in yards after contact per attempt. Additionally, UGA has had issues with back-end miscommunication leading to huge aerial gains. Georgia ranks a lowly No. 91 in passing marginal explosiveness against. This is a specialty of Iamaleava’s.

We expect this one to be close, not decided until late.

Thor’s best bet for Georgia vs. Tennessee:

Tennessee +9.5

South Carolina vs. Missouri Pick

Adjusted Thor Line: South Carolina -8.6

South Carolina’s offense is not good enough to be laying two touchdowns against a top-20 SP+ defense, like the one Missouri has.

The Gamecocks have an incredible pass rush (No. 3 sacks/dropback). But South Carolina still has offensive line issues itself, one of the reasons the Gamecocks rank No. 133 in sacks/dropback on offense. Because of this, Missouri’s pass-rush—which ranks No. 17 sacks/dropback—actually might perform a bit better on Saturday (Mizzou’s offense is No. 78 sacks/dropback).

Missouri looks like it’ll be without QB1 Brady Cook again. Cook has been listed as doubtful due to hand and ankle ailments. Missouri beat Oklahoma last week without him, with QB2 Drew Pyne posting 143 yards and three touchdowns.

This is a sneaky spot for the breakout WR Luther Burden game. Mizzou’s game plan needs to be chock-full of quick-hit manufactured looks for Burden, keeping South Carolina's pass-rush at bay while allowing Burden to create in space.

Thor’s best bet for South Carolina vs. Missouri:

Missouri +14

Air Force vs. Oregon State Pick

Adjusted Thor Line: Air Force -1.0

We faded the reeling Beavers last week and are going to do so again. Losers of four, Oregon State now heads into a problematic matchup against a team that can tee off on the Beavers’ Achilles Heal weakness of run defense.

This is what we wrote about the Beavers last week in this space—prior to OSU’s double-digit loss to San Jose State:

“The Beavers were decimated by portal defections over the offseason, returning the third-lowest production of any FBS team. The Beavers opened 4-1, beating an FCS team and three bottom-barrel G5 teams while losing to Wazzu. During that stretch, injuries started piling up on a roster that did not have the depth or experience to weather them. In particular, OSU’s defense—which returned only two players who started in the FBS last season to begin with—has been wiped out. In the blowout loss to Cal, the Bears scored on nine-of-10 possessions. Oregon State’s defense now ranks No. 102 SP+, and the unit has allowed 31-or-more points in four straight, three of those against G5 teams.”

Oregon State’s run defense ranks No. 124 in success rate and No. 123 in EPA/run. No team in the nation runs more than Air Force.

This has been the worst Falcons season in recent memory. But the service academy has not quit – after a 1-7 start, Air Force upset Fresno State last week. We see another upset on paper coming here. Our system actually installs Air Force as the favorite.

Thor’s best bet for Air Force vs. Oregon State:

Air Force +4.5