Below are my best bets for college football's Week 8, a mix of picks on the spread and player props. 

Because the college football betting market moves so quickly, I input my bets immediately – as they happen – into our college football free bet tracker. I can’t recommend highly enough that you bookmark that page, so you can get the best lines before they move. Also, I rank all 134 FBS teams weekly — if you're here, you're probably going to enjoy that, as well (Oregon got into my Top 5 this week). 

“Adjusted Thor Line” is my model's spread. For a much deeper dive into that system, there's a full college football game model based on my projections. 

Onto the picks!

Texas vs. Georgia 

Adjusted Thor Line: Texas -7

Note: Georgia is expected to be without All-SEC linebacker Smael Mondon again when it faces No. 1 Texas Saturday

It's still unclear when Mondon, who has missed the last two games, will be back as he works back from a foot issue.

The public is still giving Georgia credit for the teams they were the past few years, and not the team they are now.

The Bulldogs have lost five straight games ATS. During that stretch, Georgia lost to Alabama, should have lost to Kentucky, and, last week, only beat a dead-on-arrival Mississippi State team by 10.

Offensively, Georgia struggles to run the ball. So the offense has skewed to a hyper-pass ethos – the Bulldogs are one of the 15-most pass-happy teams on running downs in the nation. The last four games – against SEC opponents – Georgia QB Carson Beck has posted a measly 8/5 TD/INT rate. 

Beck’s numbers have been propped up by quick-hitting passes near the line of scrimmage. When forced outside of that – as he has in games over the past month – he has struggled. 

Texas boasts the best pass defense in the nation. Per SP+, the Longhorns’ pass defense ranks top-2 in passing success rate, yards per dropback, EPA/dropback, adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A), passing marginal explosiveness, and yards per successful dropback. 

For these reasons, we like the over on Beck’s 0.5 interception prop.

On the other side of the ball, Georgia’s defense has regressed –  the pass defense in particular. The Bulldogs’ pass defense ranks outside the top-65 in every single statistical category I mentioned in the paragraph above. 

Last week, against a non-threatening Mississippi State offense starting true freshman QB Michael Van Buren Jr. – forced into action following the season-ending injury to Blake Shapen – Georgia allowed 8.3 YPA and over 300 passing yards. Two weeks before that, Alabama QB Jalen Milroe went 27-for-33 for 374 yards and two TD against Georgia.

Ewers’ 2024 season has, thus far, been interrupted by an injury. But last year, in games Ewers started and finished, he went over this passing total in nine-of-10 games (the only exception was a blowout win over Wyoming in which he only threw 21 passes as Texas deflated the ball with its run game).

Ewers projects to shred this Georgia defense, while Beck projects to struggle. Our numbers say this line is short. Our handicap suggests it’s even shorter. We like Texas by double-digits.

Thor’s bets: Texas -3.5 | Georgia QB Carson Beck Over 0.5 Interceptions | Texas QB Quinn Ewers Over 254.5 Passing Yards

Buffalo vs. WMU 

Adjusted Thor Line:  WMU -3.6

Buffalo made an outstanding hire when they lured Pete Lembo from South Carolina. Lembo was successful as an HC at Ball State, prior to stepping down to take over the special teams coordinator post at USC. He was named a Broyles Award Assistant Coach of the Year semifinalist for his work as a Gamecocks assistant.

Lembo has whipped Buffalo into shape immediately. The Bulls are 4-2 after upsetting Toledo last week. Buffalo’s offense is lethargic, but it takes care of the ball. More importantly, the Bulls play strong defense and special teams, and they tackle well (No. 28 success rate).

Western Michigan hasn’t looked quite as good as expected through the first half of the season. The past three games, the Broncos posted a 3% postgame win expectancy in a loss to Marshall, snuck by Ball State by a field goal, then had a deceiving 10-point win against Akron in which WMU finished with a 29% postgame win expectancy.

WMU’s offense leans towards the run, but the passing attack has been more efficient. Either way, Buffalo’s defensive metrics against both have been sterling.

WMU’s No. 126-ranked SP+ defense is a problem area. It gave up 66 points in the games against lowly Ball State and Akron. Buffalo’s offense, while no powerhouse, should be able to grind out yards against it while not giving WMU any short fields off turnovers.

Thor’s bet: Buffalo +1

UTSA vs. FAU

Adjusted Thor Line: UTSA -2.5

Last week, we called for Rice, a 4.5-point underdog, to spring the outright upset of UTSA. The Owls came through. We’re going back to the well this week – once again backing a team named the Owls – via a similar handicap. 

Rice’s strength as a team is pass defense – this matched up well against UTSA’s pass-happy offense. Similar story, here. FAU’s defense ranks No. 29 in passing success rate, No, 27 in EPA/dropback, and No. 5 in completion rate allowed.

Where you can attack FAU is on the ground (another similarity with Rice) – it’s just that UTSA doesn’t play offense that way. The Roadrunners rank No. 105 in standard down run rate.

On the other side of the ball, UTSA’s defense, which ranks No. 130 in tackle success rate, continues to be an issue. Even bad offenses can give UTSA fits by getting the ball into space and forcing the Roadrunners to tackle.

FAU, like Rice, fits this profile. FAU runs the ball well (No. 31 EPA/run), and plays it safe with the pass (No. 26 in % of receptions out of the backfield).

As with last week, we’re calling for a team named the Owls to upset UTSA outright.

Thor’s bet: FAU +4

Clemson vs. Virginia

Adjusted Thor Line: Clemson -15.9

Clemson has breezed through the schedule since the opener – but Virginia is the best team they’ve faced since then. Despite the early-season success, Clemson has showed one obvious weakness… the run defense, which ranks No. 93 in EPA/rush and No. 118 in explosion allowed. The Tigers are also only No. 80 in tackle rate.

Virginia has a run-leaning offense and exciting dual-threat QB Anthony Colandrea. The Cavs push the pace with tempo, and they force you to tackle. Virginia has gotten strong OL play this season, ranking No. 29 in successful run block %, and No. 25 in OL yards. Meanwhile, Clemson’s front on the other side ranks No. 115 in DL Yards.

Virginia’s offense has been better than the scoreboard has indicated this year – the Cavs rank just No. 130 in Redzone TD %. But this might be a sneaky opportunity for Virginia to cash in on scoring opportunities – Clemson ranks No. 108 in Defensive Finishing Drives.

And while the Cavs’ defense is no great shakes, it has shown the ability to take away explosive runs, and hinder passing efficiency. Those are two areas where Clemson has derived a lion’s share of its offensive yards this season.

Lastly, in any game with a three-TD-plus spread, you have to consider the favorite’s motivation in running up the score on an inferior opponent. In the late-1990s, Virginia HC Tony Elliott played WR at Clemson… for a young WR coach named Dabo Swinney. More recently, Elliott spent a decade coaching under Swinney prior to getting the Virginia job.

This is what Swinney said about Elliott earlier this week: “Tony is family to me. He's not just somebody that I've worked with, he's family. Tamika and both of his precious little boys, Ace and A.J. — that whole family, I have been around them since 2003. We've had a lot of great times together, doing life together.”

Does that sound like a guy who wants to embarrass his friend?

Thor’s bet: Virginia +21.5

Duke vs. FSU

Adjusted Thor Line: Duke -5.5

Duke’s defense has been humming in Year 1 under new HC Manny Diaz. The pass defense ranks top-25 in success rate and EPA/dropback. Diaz’s patented send-the-house blitz packages have led to the 18th-highest pressure rate in the FBS. 

Florida State will once again start QB2 Brock Glenn with DJ Uiagalelei injured. In his first start of the season last time out against Clemson, Glenn went 23-for-41 for 228 yards with a 2/1 TD/INT rate. 

Glenn has another tough assignment here against Duke’s No. 15 SP+ defense. Because Florida State has one of the P4’s worst rushing offenses, the pressure will remain on Glenn to win the game through the air. That is not an ideal strategy against a defense constructed like Duke’s.

Florida State’s defense has horribly underachieved this season. The one aspect where it continues to excel is the pass-rush, ranking No. 4 in pressure rate. However, Duke’s offense ranks No. 15 in pressure rate – potentially nullifying that advantage. 

Thor’s bet: Duke -3

Houston QB Zeon Chriss: O/U 36.5 Rushing Yards (At Kansas)

Last time out, Chriss ran for 97 yards on 11 carries in a 30-19 upset win over TCU. Off the bench in the two games before that, he ran for 63 yards in limited action against Iowa State and Cincinnati.

Last year, during a five-game stretch between mid-September and mid-October as Louisiana’s QB1 before suffering a season-ending injury, Chriss rushed for 67 yards or more each time. He crossed the 100-yard threshold in two of those games.

Chriss’ best asset is his legs. He plays in a system for HC Willie Fritz that prioritizes that – it’s the explicit reason that Fritz brought Chriss in via the transfer portal over the offseason. 

Houston, shut out twice in the first five games when Donovan Smith was starting – and held to 12 points or less in four of them – desperately needs to generate offense through any available avenue. As the Cougars found out in stunning TCU, Chriss’ legs are the most reliable source of offense on the current roster.

Thor’s bet: Chriss over 36.5 Rushing

BYU RB Hinckley Ropati O/U 38.5 Rushing Yards (Vs. Okie State)

You may not know much about Ropati, but that’s about to change.

He’s had a star-crossed career. Ropati began at a JUCO in 2019, then didn’t play in 2020 after his transfer wasn’t finalized until one week into fall camp. He struggled to see the field behind Tyler Allgeier in 2021. In 2022, Ropati flashed as a part-time player, averaging 6.8 yards per touch.

Last year was supposed to be his breakout, but Ropati suffered a season-ending knee injury in camp. Ropati won an even timeshare with LJ Martin coming out of camp this year. But both suffered injuries in Week 2 that kept them out of action for a month. 

Ropati and Martin both returned last week against Arizona. Martin had 11 carries for 49 yards, Ropati had nine for 65. No other RB on the roster received a carry in that game – we’re back to the 50/50 RB platoon. 

Ropati will get more than enough work to easily pass this number against Oklahoma State’s rancid run defense that ranks No. 127 in yards per rush allowed (with sacks omitted). Okie State ranks No. 115 or worse in both yards per carry before contact and yards per carry after contact. BYU’s OL ranks No. 53 in yards before contact. 

Ropati is averaging 5.1 YPC this year, and also 5.1 YPC in his career. Simply maintaining that average would get him over this number on his eighth carry. He got nine last week coming off injury in a 41-19 beatdown of Arizona. 

In this one, with BYU favored by -9.5 and Ropati now two games off injury, we’d expect double-digit carries. If that happens, Ropati is going to fly over this number.

Thor’s bet:  Ropati Over 38.5 Rushing Yards

Will Sheppard O/U 42.5 Receiving Yards (At Arizona)

An NFL prospect and a celebrated transfer acquisition from Vanderbilt, Sheppard has had 59 receiving yards or more in four of six games this year despite a slow acclimation into Colorado’s offense. 

The past two games – against UCF and Kansas State – Sheppard has posted receiving lines of 4-99-1 and 5-83-1, respectively.

Reports out of Boulder this week suggest Sheppard is going to be counted on more heavily this week due to the precarious health status of Colorado’s receiving room – the Buffs suffered four different injuries to WRs in the K-State game.

HC Deion Sanders says he’s confident that WRs Travis Hunter and Jimmy Horn will return for this game – though it’s unclear if either or both will be playing at less than 100 percent. Meanwhile, WRs Omarion Miller and Terrell Timmons will both miss this game (Miller appears to have suffered a season-ending injury).

Sheppard already leads the team in receiver snaps this fall, and he probably won’t be coming off the field against Arizona with CU’s depth so depleted at the position.

Sheppard has averaged 6.5 targets per game over the last four. That’s a reasonable baseline for the Arizona game, with double-digits also not out of the question. Sheppard’s 14.2 aDOT easily leads the team – he’s CU’s downtown threat on the boundary. 

Colorado is averaging 336.6 YPG passing. In this game, that high-flying aerial attack goes up against a mediocre Arizona pass defense that ranks No. 91 in passing success rate and No. 79 in % of 20+ yard completions. The Buffaloes, 3.5-point underdogs in this spot, project to be throwing all game into that mediocre passing defense.

Thor's Bet: Sheppard over 42.5 Receiving Yards

***

CFB Key Injuries/News

• USC DE Anthony Lucas is out for the rest of the season, per head coach 
• USC star linebacker Eric Gentry has announced he’s redshirting 
• Kansas CB Cobee Bryant and LB Cornell Wheeler are doubtful
• FAU QB Cam Fancher is dealing with a turf toe injury. HC Tom Herman said the QB’s status is up in the air for this weekend. Potentially a big development for the Owls.