College Football Picks Week 2: Michigan vs. Texas, Iowa vs. Iowa State, and More

Below are my best bets for this weekend in college football Week 2, a mix of picks on the spread and player props.

Because the college football betting market moves so quickly, I input my bets immediately – as they happen – into Fantasy Life’s Bet Tracker. I can’t recommend highly enough that you bookmark that page, so you can get the best lines before they move.

Note: “ATL” below stands for “Adjusted Thor Line” – my system’s spread. If you want a deeper dive into my system, we have a full CFB game model based on my projections.

Onto the picks!

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Washington State (-1.5) vs. Texas Tech

ATL: Wazzu -4.1

Last Saturday night, Texas Tech-Abilene Christian turned into one of the day’s most entertaining games. The Red Raiders outlasted ACU 52-51 in OT after Abilene’s two-point attempt was stopped.

That game revealed some troubling signs for Texas Tech. Abilene Christian ended with a 73% win expectancy. ACU QB1 Maverick McIvor, who spent three years at Tech without taking one snap before transferring, went 36-for-51 for 506 yards and three TD with zero INT.

Texas Tech’s defense returned only five starters. The secondary returned only two of five, and it lost its best player to the NFL Draft. That secondary got lit up at home by an FCS opponent.

This weekend, Wazzu’s Air Raid offense will be aimed directly at that beleaguered secondary. Cougars QB1 John Mateer went 11-for-17 for 352, five TD, and no INT in a 70-30 win over FCS Portland State last week. Mateer wasn’t one of Wazzu’s six returning starters on offense.

Tech has played wildly different on the road than it has at home the last five seasons. Between 2019-2023, Tech was 16-13 ATS at home, and 7-15 ATS on the road. We all know Lubbock is a tough place to play. Tech has struggled when leaving it.

Texas Tech’s best offensive player, RB Tahj Brooks, has an arm injury and is being labeled a game-time decision. Brooks, who spurned the NFL Draft to return, carried the ball 27 times for 153 yards and one TD in the wild win over ACU, while his top-two backups were relegated to one carry apiece. Those backups may be forced to step to the forefront against Wazzu. That would have the effect of seriously neutering the efficiency of this offense.

On the other side of the ball, Tech’s best player in the aforementioned beleaguered secondary, S C.J. Baskerville, is listed as questionable with a shoulder injury. And while Tech HC Joey McGuire says that he expects CB1 Bralyn Lux to return for the Wazzu game, that’s no guarantee after Lux sat out the ACU with a thigh injury.

Beyond that, Tech EDGE Joseph Adedire, one of the team’s best pass-rushers, has been confirmed out for the season after missing the opener. Adedire’s top backup, EDGE Dylan Spencer, was previously lost to a season-ending injury.

This is a bad matchup on multiple fronts for Tech. Wazzu is 8-3-1 ATS at home since 2021, and the Cougars have a perfect air-centric style to attack Tech’s Achilles heel of a pass defense.

The pick: Wazzu -1.5

Michigan (+7.5) vs. Texas

ATL: Texas -4.5

Michigan beat Fresno State 30-10 last week. But Michigan only led 16-10 – including three made FGs from 45+ yards – in the fourth quarter before a good offensive drive and a Will Johnson pick-six.

Texas whipped Colorado State 52-0. The Rams gained a mere 192 yards of offense.

The perception of these respective results have conspired to give us what my system considers to be a field goal of fair line value in this game.

It is true that Michigan’s offense could struggle to throw on what appears to be an improved Texas pass defense. Last week, the Wolverines threw for only 121 yards against Fresno State. However, it is going to be easier for Michigan to run on Texas than people think.

Last season, Texas had an elite run defense and a mediocre pass defense. But after losing DTs Byron Murphy II and T'Vondre Sweat to the top-40 of the NFL Draft, the run defense is down. Though Colorado State couldn’t pass against Texas, CSU RB Justin Marshall ran for 106 yards (More on the Michigan run game below).

On the other side of the ball, the Wolverines are likely going to make Texas one-dimensional themselves in this game. The Longhorns will not have success running the ball against Michigan. The Wolverines had an elite run defense last year, and they returned DTs Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant. Graham and T'Vondre Sweat were the only two DTs in the nation to grade in the PFF top-10 in both run defense and pass rush.

This will put a lot of pressure on Texas QB Quinn Ewers to succeed through the air against a top-tier Michigan secondary that has lockdown CB1 Will Johnson – a top-5 overall NFL Draft prospect – on one side of the field.

A touchdown-plus seems rich for what should be a low-scoring game.

The pick: Michigan +7.5

Michigan RB Donovan Edwards UNDER 53.5 Rushing Yards (vs. Texas)

Michigan RB Kalel Mullings OVER 45.5 Rushing Yards (vs. Texas)

We’re going to write these up in tandem because they are correlated. In short: Kalel Mullings is better than Donovan Edwards.

Last week, against Fresno State, the pair split snaps – 34 for Edwards, 30 for Mullings. However, 17 of Edwards’ snaps were on passing reps, while Mullings was in on 11. Mullings was on the field on running downs a bit more, and he received more carries.

Not surprisingly, Mullings was far more effective, turning 15 carries into 92 yards (6.1 YPC). Edwards had 27 yards on 11 carries (2.5 YPC).

Mullings is a 6-foot-2, 233-pound sledgehammer. Edwards is an overhyped, overrated back who made the cover of the new CFB25 video game on the back of a few good games in 2022 and finishing off one of the P5’s worst run defenses (Washington) off the bench in last year’s title game.

In that Washington game, Edwards had two carries of 15+ yards and 87 breakaway yards. Outside of that, since the beginning of the 2023 season, he’s had three 15+ yard carries and 61 breakaway yards.

Edwards lacks vision and feel, so he struggles to find the openings through which his athleticism would otherwise shine. Mullings, on the other hand, is going to reliably churn out yards. For a Michigan offense that needs to generate yardage in any way possible, Mullings is the better option, and I expect him to overtake Edwards going forward as the early-down back of choice.

The picks: Edwards UNDER 53.5 rushing yards | Mullings OVER 45.5 rushing yards

Oregon (-18.5) vs. Boise State

ATL: Oregon -23.8

In its first game as a member of the Big Ten, Oregon struggled in a 24-14 win over FCS Idaho. The Ducks outgained Idaho 487-217 and won the turnover battle 2-1, but continually stubbed their own toe, including eight penalties for 60 yards.

This week, I expect Oregon to look more like the Ducks we were envisioning over the summer. The one thing that Oregon did well last week was pass. QB Dillon Gabriel went 41-for-49 for 380 yards, two TD, and zero INT.

Gabriel had an early rapport with WR Tez Johnson. Johnson caught 12 passes for 81 yards and both of Gabriel’s TDs. Oregon’s run game was surprisingly sluggish in the first game post-Bucky Irving. But Oregon’s OL – including a Joe Moore semifinalist last year and returning multiple NFL prospects – is going to have its way in the trenches in this matchup.

Last week, Boise State struggled to defend Georgia Southern’s spread passing attack, allowing 322 yards through the air. Oregon’s passing attack isn’t going to find much resistance from BSU’s shaky secondary.

On the other side of the ball, BSU’s offense remains the RB Ashton Jeanty show. Jeanty had 20 carries for 267 yards and three TD along with three catches versus Georgia Southern.

Oregon’s defense, which was spectacular against the run defense in 2023, is well-equipped to deal with a one-dimensional offense. The Ducks only allowed 48 yards rushing last week.

The pick: Oregon -18.5

Oklahoma State (-7.5) vs. Arkansas

ATL: OSU -10.0

Both teams beat FCS opponents last week. But these were not equivalent circumstances. Oklahoma State soundly beat the best team in the FCS, South Dakota State, 44-20. Arkansas beat one of the FCS’ worst teams, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 70-0.

The Hogs’ offense is going to need to prove it to me against a legitimate opponent.

Oklahoma State’s defense returned nine starters and ranked top-10 in returning production. That unit looked good against South Dakota State’s strong offense. The veteran unit isn’t likely to be fooled by Arkansas OC Bobby Petrino’s eye candy.

Oklahoma State will have success riding reigning Doak Walker winner RB Ollie Gordon II and an OL that returned all five starters. And the passing attack should get good looks from a questionable Arkansas secondary.

The pick: Oklahoma State -7.5

California (+13.5) at Auburn

ATL: Auburn -11.4

Auburn fans are excited about the improvements of the offense after last week’s 73-3 win over FCS Alabama A&M. The Tigers had 451 passing yards on only 18 completions, taking advantage of a poor opponent (Alabama A&M ranks No. 220 out of 267 in my combined FBS/FCS power rankings).

I’m bullish on Cal. The offense was sluggish early in last week’s 31-13 win over FCS UC-Davis, but it eventually started moving. HC Justin Wilcox told reporters on Tuesday that star RB Jaydn Ott is "probable" for Auburn. Ott was removed early as a precaution from last week’s win after a minor leg injury.

One of the nation’s best RBs, Ott runs behind an above-average ACC OL that returns 112 career starts.

Auburn’s run defense was mediocre last year. Based on last week’s opponent, it's hard to gauge how much the Tigers have shored up that area. If Auburn’s run defense hasn’t made a significant jump, Cal will mercilessly pick at it.

The pick: Cal +13.5

Ohio (+2.5) vs. South Alabama | Over 56.5

ATL: Ohio -0.4 | ATT: 59.0

A two-for-one special, here. Because South Alabama has fallen off so sharply, and because neither team plays like they used to, we see value against the market’s perception on both the spread and total.

South Alabama’s staff got blown up when former HC Kane Wommack left to become Alabama’s DC, and the Jaguars only returned seven starters total. South Alabama, No. 114 in production, is one of the nation’s least-experienced teams.

New HC Major Applewhite is, in contrast to his predecessor, an offense-first coach. And with a brand-new starting lineup, he could remake the team in his image on the fly.

South Alabama was upset at home 52-38 by North Texas last week – a result that, by October, we believe will no longer appear to be an upset at all. The only bright spot was the Jaguars’ offense. Running at the fastest tempo of any FBS program in Week 1, USA gained 582 yards on offense. The inexperienced defense, meanwhile, got wrecked for 550 yards by the Mean Green.

Over 900 yards of total offense was gained in Ohio’s 38-22 loss to Syracuse in the opener. The Bobcats’ passing defense looked awful, allowing 354 yards and four TDs to new Syracuse QB Kyle McCord. But Ohio’s offense, running at a top-25 fastest Week 1 clip, ran for 255 yards against the Orange.

We believe that this line should be flipped, and we further believe that these teams are about to breach the 60-point mark in what should be an entertaining shootout.

The picks: Ohio +2.5 | Over 56.5

Iowa (-2.5) vs. Iowa State | Iowa TE Luke Lachey OVER 36.5 receiving yards

ATL: Iowa -5.8

My system installed the Hawkeyes at -5.4 if both teams were at full-strength.

But both teams are not at full-strength.

Iowa State is without two starting LBs – Caleb Bacon and Will McLaughlin – in this game. Plus, one of ISU’s top backup LBs, Cael Brezina, is questionable after missing Week 1. This matters against an Iowa offense that wants to establish the run.

On the other side of the ball, Iowa State is down to its fourth-string RT already.

ISU had a lethargic performance in a 21-3 victory over FCS North Dakota in Week 1. The run game generated a mere 86 yards on 3.9 YPC. Iowa has the personnel to make ISU one-dimensional.

That, in turn, would force a predictable ISU to throw into one of the nation’s best secondaries, featuring nickel Sebastian Castro and S Xavier Nwankpa. Iowa finished No. 4 in scoring defense and No. 7 in total defense last year.

Meanwhile, Iowa’s offense looked better than it has in multiple years in the 40-0 win over FCS Illinois State last week.

While Iowa only scored six points in the first half, Iowa’s offense looked a different unit altogether after halftime. QB Cade McNamara went 21-for-31 for 251 yards and three TD during Saturday's 40-0 win over Illinois State, with all three of McNamara's TD passes coming over a 12-minute stretch between the early third quarter and the first play of the fourth. ISU’s pass defense is going to be a bit down after losing CB TJ Tampa.

Iowa TE Luke Lachey gets targeted when he’s on the field. Over his last three full games, Lachey has seen 23 targets, an average of 7.7 per game. His prop line is reflective not of that, but of the market not being familiar with his game after he missed essentially the last 12 games of last season.

The Hawkeyes have a strong RB duo in Kamari Moulton (19/65/0) and Kaleb Johnson (11/119/2). Iowa returned 154 career starts along what should be an exceptional OL. With new OC Tim Lester calling the shots, this appears to be a different offense with a much higher ceiling than last season’s No. 129 SP+ offense.

The picks: Iowa -2.5 | TE Luke Lachey OVER 36.5 receiving yards