NBA Bets and Picks for Christmas Day: Get Over On LeBron James and Nikola Jokic

Adam Ronis and Matt LaMarca unwrap their favorite bets for the five-game Christmas Day slate of NBA games.

The Christmas holiday has become a highlight of the NBA season, this year staging five games pitting Knicks-Spurs, Mavericks-Timberwolves, Lakers-Warriors, Celtics-76ers, and Suns-Nuggets. These high-profile games feature plenty of stars, and allow for plenty of betting opportunities.

Bets and Picks For NBA Christmas Day Slate

Below, we will go game-by-game through the five-game Christmas NBA slate and provide our top picks (one from each of Adam Ronis and Matt LaMarca) to give you a comprehensive overview of the slate.

These picks will range from picks against the spread to totals, props, and more.

*Odds listed are the best available prices from our NBA Betting Odds table and NBA Prop Bet Finder.

New York Knicks vs. San Antonio Spurs Picks

Spread: Knicks -9.0 (-110; FanDuel)
Total: O/U 226.0

Ronis: Knicks -9. The Knicks are one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference and starting to hit their stride. New York has won nine of its last 11 games and the last three have come by double digits. Six of their last eight wins have been by double digits. The Spurs are an improved team compared to last season behind Victor Wembanyama and Chris Paul. Six of the last seven losses by the Spurs have been by double digits. The Spurs struggle to defend the perimeter and that’s where the Knicks thrive. This is a step up in competition for the Spurs and the Knicks defense has improved the last few games.

LaMarca: Spurs +9.0. The Spurs are a young team on the rise, currently sitting at above .500 in a very competitive Western Conference. The Knicks are a good team—arguably the best offensive team in basketball—but they still have some flaws. Specifically, their defense has been very exploitable at times, ranking merely 14th in defensive efficiency. When the Spurs have had Victor Wembanyama this season, they’ve been able to go toe-to-toe with some of the best teams in basketball. They have a Net Rating of +4.8 with Wembanyama on the floor, so 9.0 points ultimately feels a smidge too high.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Picks

Spread: Mavericks -4.5 (-110; FanDuel)
Total: O/U 224.5

Ronis: Kyrie Irving over 20.5 points. Irving is averaging 23.4 points this season, but the line is several points below. Irving tends to go off against Minnesota. The teams met earlier this season, Irving scoring 35 points while shooting 13-of-23 from the field. Luka Doncic tends to draw Jaden McDaniels, opening it up for Irving to be more aggressive on offense. In the five games in the postseason last year, Irving averaged 27 points and scored at least 30 three times. If the game stays competitive, Irving could play 37-40 minutes. When Doncic has played this season, Irving is averaging 23.1 points per game.

LaMarca: Luka Doncic Over 45.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists. This is obviously a massive number, but very few players in basketball are capable of stuffing the stat sheet like Doncic. He’s averaging 28.8 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 8.1 assists per game, and this is an opponent he’s very familiar with. He eviscerated the Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals last year, averaging better than 50 points + rebounds + assists in five outings. Doncic is also the type of player who loves to show out on the biggest stages. He erupted for 50 points and 15 assists on Christmas Day last year, and he had 32/9/9 on Christmas two years ago. The Timberwolves are reeling a bit at the moment, losing three straight games, and I like Luka to extend their misery in Dallas.

Boston Celtics vs. Philadelphia 76ers Picks

Spread: Celtics -9.0 (-110; DraftKings)
Total: O/U 222.0

Ronis: Payton Pritchard over 11.5 points. This is a buy-low spot on Pritchard. He’s coming off games of 6 and 7 points and played only 21 minutes against the Magic last game. Pritchard plays a big role off the Celtics bench and is averaging 30.9 minutes per game in December and 28.6 on the season. The guard has played at least 30 minutes in eight of the last 10 games. He is averaging 15.7 points per game and is over this line in nine of the last 12 games. Pritchard has double-digit attempts from the field in 19-of-29 games this season. He is averaging 3.7 three-pointers made per game.

LaMarca: Under 222.0. Of all the games on Christmas, this is the one that people have to be least excited about. The 76ers have been a massive disappointment this season, with their new “big three” of Joel Embiid, Paul George, and Tyrese Maxey playing just five total games together. One of those players hasn’t been able to finish the game in three of them, so they’ve been a disaster. The 76ers have played at the second-slowest pace this season, and the Celtics are seventh in defensive efficiency. With Embiid dominating the usage when available—and being a bit less effective than usual—this game feels like it could be a bit of a slog. The 76ers have also been good at limiting the number of opponent three-pointers, which should keep the Celtics’ potent offense slightly in check.

Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers Picks

Spread: Warriors -4.5 (-110; BetMGM)
Total: O/U 229.5

Ronis: Steph Curry over 10.5 rebounds+assists. Curry is over this line in 14 of the last 17 games. The game should be close, allowing Curry to play around 35 minutes. Curry is averaging 5 rebounds and 6.6 assists per game. The Lakers allow the fifth-most assists to point guards and are in the middle of the pack allowing 6.12 rebounds per game to point guards. Curry has gone over this line in five of the last seven games against the Lakers.

LaMarca: LeBron James Over 22.5 points. Does LeBron have one more big Christmas Day game left in him? I think so. He’s already the league’s all-time leader in Christmas Day games and points, and he’ll take the court for the 19th time on Christmas this year. He’ll be squaring off with Steph Curry and the Warriors, setting up a marquee showdown between two of the league’s most noteworthy players for what could be one of the last times. I expect James to try to put on a show, and he enters this contest in good recent form. He’s gone for at least 28 points in four of his past six outings, including each of his past two.

Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets Picks

Spread: Nuggets -1.5 (-110; FanDuel)
Total: O/U 234.0

Ronis: Michael Porter over 8.5 rebounds+assists. Porter is averaging 6.9 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game. He faced the Suns on Monday and had 6 rebounds and 4 assists in 30 minutes and didn’t play the fourth quarter due to a blowout. The Nuggets are favored by 2.5 points and it’s expected to be closer this time. Porter is over this line in eight of the last nine games and 13 of the last 15 games. Porter has at least 9 rebounds+assists in 22 of 27 games this season. The Suns allow the eighth-most rebounds to small forwards and rank 22nd in assists allowed per game.

LaMarca: Nuggets -2.5. The Suns are currently playing without Devin Booker, which leaves them without the firepower required to slay the giant that is Nikola Jokic. Jokic is cruising toward his fourth MVP award, averaging 30.9 points, 12.5 rebounds, and 9.7 assists per game. He crushed the Suns when these teams met on Monday, finishing with 32 points in 29.8 minutes in a blowout win. The Suns simply had no answer for Jokic, who did basically whatever he wanted offensively. I’m not sure what changes in the rematch.