A quick note before we begin: I rank all 134 FBS teams weekly — if you're here, you're probably going to enjoy that, as well (we have strength of schedule and projected wins, too!). I also have a projected playoff bracket. After the bracket is announced Sunday, we'll have extensive coverage of all the matchups, as well as predictions, projections, and more!

Below each game's odds, you'll see my CFB model's spread. For a much deeper dive into that system, I have a full college football game model based on my projections, for all the games this weekend. 

For more Title Game picks, I also have a giant column full of stats, props, scouting, and projections — including the MAC, Big 12, and Sun Belt (and more!). Enjoy!

ACC Championship | Charlotte | Saturday: SMU vs. Clemson

• Current Odds: SMU -2.5
• The game model says: Clemson -0.3

Only one play for us in the ACC title game.

We’re fading Clemson QB Cade Klubnik’s 252.5 passing yardage prop. Klubnik went under this number in three-of-five games to close the season.

But we especially like it because we like the way that SMU’s pass defense matches up against Clemson’s passing offense. SMU is outstanding at defending the short stuff, ranking No. 9 in success rate and No. 20 EPA/dropback. But SMU can get hit for deep shots, ranking No. 75 in passing marginal explosiveness. 

Clemson’s passing offense is efficient (No. 35 success rate), careful with the ball (No. 4 INT %), and, all-in-all, rock-solid (No. 27 EPA/dropback). But it categorically is not explosive (No. 85 marginal explosiveness). 

That means that the strength of Clemson’s passing game is going directly into the superpower of SMU’s defense, without recourse to exploit SMU’s kryptonite. In addition, Clemson, which ranks No. 68 in pressure rate allowed, may struggle to keep SMU’s pass rush (No. 34 in the same metric) out of the backfield.

Thor’s Bet: Clemson QB Cade Klubnik Under 252.5 Passing Yards