“ATL” below refers to my system’s line on each game, the “Adjusted Thor Line.” Check back throughout the month – we’ll be back throughout bowl season with handicaps on each game.

Wednesday, Dec. 18 Bowl Games

Boca Raton Bowl: James Madison vs. Western Kentucky

5:30 p.m. | ESPN, FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)

Spread (see updated odds here): James Madison -6.5 | ATL: James Madison -8.8 

Portal, Opt-out and Injury News

Western Kentucky

• QB2 TJ Finley (Portal)
• Starting WR Easton Messer (Portal)
• Starting TE River Helms (OFY Injury/Portal)
• Starting LT Travon Taylor (Injury)
• Starting DE Deante McCray (Portal)
• Starting NT Dallas Walker (Portal)
• Starting DT Hosea Wheeler (Portal)
• Former starting DT Jalil Rivera-Harvey (Injury/Portal)
• Former starting DT Jayden Loving (Injury/Portal)
• Rotation DE Marcus Patterson (Portal)
• Starting LB Darius Thomas (Portal)
• Starting CB Anthony Johnson (Injury)
• Starting S Upton Stout (Injury)
• Starting S Demarko Williams (Portal)
• Starting K Lucas Carneiro (Portal)

James Madison

• Starting QB Alonza Barnett (Injury)
• QB2 Dylan Morris (Portal)
• Rotational RB Ayo Adeyi (OFY Injury)
• Starting LB Jacob Dobbs (Injury)

Handicap

Western Kentucky has a laundry list of players in the portal whose status is up in the air. But in last year’s Famous Toastery Bowl, numerous WKU players in the portal ended up playing. After a disastrous first quarter by fill-in QB Turner Helton, WKU inserted Caden Veltkamp – who was in the portal – to finish the game. Veltkamp threw for 383 yards and five TD in a wild 38-35 OT win.

Veltkamp has returned to the portal, as has his backup, TJ Finley. However, WKU HC Tyson Helton said recently that Veltkamp will play in this game. That news caused this line to immediately drop from JMU -9.5 to JMU -7, then JMU -6.5.

Veltkamp was the CUSA Offensive Player of the Year despite not taking over as QB1 until their third game. The runner-up for that award? JMU QB Alonza Barnett. Barnett will miss this game due to an injury he picked up in the regular-season finale against Marshall. JMU QB2 Dylan Morris is in the portal, so the Dukes will start QB3 Billy Atkins.

We took the under on Akins’ passing at 188.5 yards in the prop market. Barnett took almost every snap for James Madison this year. In 12 games, Barnett averaged 216 YPG passing. But if you took out two anomalous games in late-September against UNC and Ball State, that average drops to 193 YPG passing. 

Barnett had less than 200 passing yards in six of 12 games, 186-or-less in four, and 138-or-less in three. He’s the team’s star. QB3 Atkins was a small, two-star, dual-threat QB coming out of high school. His only other offers were in the FCS. This is Atkins’ fourth year on campus, and this will be his second career start. In the previous one, Atkins went 13-for-35 for 164 yards and a 1/4 TD/INT rate in 2022 against Marshall. He won’t approach 35 attempts in this game. 

WKU will have the QB advantage in this game. There’s doubt about that. But a Hilltopper offense that ranks No. 108 in turnovers – including 10 in the last five games – has a brutal assignment in this game. JMU’s defense is tied for No. 6 in the FBS with 26 turnovers forced.

JMU has a fabulous pass defense to combat WKU’s Air Raid offense. The Dukes’ pass defense ranks No. 4 in success rate and No. 6 in EPA/dropback. James Madison’s pass-rush (No. 12 in sacks/dropback) also should have success here against a WKU OL that may be without starting LT Travon Taylor.

On the other side, James Madison’s uber-efficient ground game is going to do serious damage to WKU’s rancid front-seven (No. 113 in success rate and No. 96 EPA/run). Not only that, but WKU could be without five contributors along the DL (two have been injured for half the season) as well as a starting LB. WKU may also be without standout S Upton Stout, the team’s best defender. Stout played limited snaps the last few weeks with an injury, and has an NFL future.

James Madison is going to tilt even more run-extreme with Atkins behind center. And that run game is going to face very little resistance. We hopped on the over of JMU RB George Pettaway’s 59.5 rushing yards.

We believe JMU will control the clock, win the field position game, and force a turnover or two. Despite starting their third-string QB, we believe the Dukes will ultimately win by double-digits.

Thor’s Bets: 

• James Madison -6.5 
• JMU QB Billy Akins Under 188.5 Passing Yards 
• JMU RB George Pettaway Over 59.5 Rushing Yards

LA Bowl: UNLV vs. Cal

Spread (see updated odds here): Pick ‘em  | ATL: UNLV -1.8

9 p.m. | ESPN, SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)

Portal, Opt-out and Injury News

UNLV

• Starting CB Tony Grimes (Portal)

Cal

• Starting QB Fernando Mendoza (Portal)
• QB2 Chandler Rogers (Injury-Questionable)
• RB Jaivian Thomas (Injury-Questionable)
• Starting WR Nzyiah Hunter (Portal)
• Starting LT Nick Morrow (Injury-Out)
• Starting LG Sioape Vatikani (Injury-Questionable)
• Rotational OL Matthew Wykoff (Portal)
• Starting MLB Cade Uluave (Injury-Questionable)

Handicap

Cal’s offense has serious questions heading into this game. That begins with the playcaller. Cal relieved OC Mike Bloesch of his duties and hired former Auburn and Boise State head coach Bryan Harsin to slide into his role. Neither will be calling plays in this game. At present, it’s unclear who will be assigned that task.

We also aren’t currently sure who will be behind center for Cal. It won’t be QB1 Fernando Mendoza – he’s in the portal and has left the team. QB3 CJ Harris got most of the first-team snaps during bowl prep because QB2 Chandler Rogers suffered an injury in the finale. 

You might recall Harris as the Ohio transfer. We’ve seen him as a fill-in starter in bowl season before. If Harris is behind center, Cal is going to be running as much as possible. I’m not going to sugarcoat this: Harris is a bad thrower. 

The state of Cal’s offensive line makes a run-heavy gameplan potentially precarious — the unit has been an issue all year. And it once again has health questions heading into this game. LT Nick Morrow is out for sure, while LG Sioape Vatikani is questionable. RG Bastian Swinney appears to be a “go.” 

UNLV has a very good run defense – which ranks No. 9 in EPA/run – and that’s Cal’s only recourse if Harris is piloting the offense. UNLV’s front seven will control the line of scrimmage. 

UNLV’s roster looks like it's in decent shape. The one significant loss – CB Tony Grimes – is mitigated by the matchup… if Harris is playing, Cal isn’t going to be throwing to its boundary receivers. UNLV’s best defensive player, MWC Defensive Player of the Year LB Jackson Woodard, is playing. So is its best offensive player, NFL prospect WR Ricky White.

UNLV’s questions heading into this game are more or less isolated to the reconstituted coaching staff. UNLV HC Barry Odom left for Purdue. Meanwhile, OC Brennan Marion also may not be calling plays. UNLV elected to hire Dan Mullen for Odom’s vacancy over Marion. This is perhaps why WR coach Del Alexander was named interim HC over Marion for this game.

There are motivation questions on the UNLV side. But UNLV matches up well in this game, and I think they pull out the win.

Thor’s Bet: UNLV moneyline

Thursday, Dec. 19 Bowl Games

New Orleans Bowl: Sam Houston vs. Georgia Southern

Spread (see updated odds here): GSU -6  | ATL: GSU -2.2

7 p.m. | ESPN2, Caesars Superdome (New Orleans, Louisiana)

Portal, Opt-out and Injury News

Sam Houston

• Starting RB Jay Ducker (Portal)
• Starting LG MarKendrick Beall (Injury)
• Starting S Caleb Weaver (Portal)
• Starting DE Chris Murray (Portal)
• Starting CB David Fisher (Portal)
• Starting LB Trey Fields (Portal)
• Starting DT Richard Outland (Portal)
• Rotational DE Briceon Hayes (Portal)
• Rotational DT Denver Warren (Portal)
• Rotational DT Quincy Wright (Portal)
• Rotational DE Kendrick DuJour (Portal)
• Platoon RB DJ McKinney (Portal)

Georgia Southern

• Starting DE Isaac Walker (Portal)

Handicap

Following the loss of HC K.C. Keeler to Temple, Sam Houston named OC Brad Cornelson interim HC. Keeler’s defection led to a laundry list of players entering the transfer portal. 

The good news is that two Sam Houston starters have already publicly announced that they’ll play (so I didn’t list them above) and there have been indications that they’ll be joined on the field by the majority of the portal entries on the list above. 

In other words: It’s possible that Sam Houston will only be out a few starters. Last year, the Bearkats’ first in the FBS, Sam Houston finished 3-9. Despite Keeler’s defection, most of the roster appears to want to participate in the bowl earned by a resurgent 9-3 regular season.

Georgia Southern’s roster appears to be mostly intact, with one notable exception. Starting DE Isaac Walker – in the portal – led the team with 15 hurries.

Sam Houston’s ground-heavy ground attack ranks No. 15 in standard down run rate. The Bearkats offense grinds away with the legs of both QB Hunter Watson and one of a rotating committee backs that sub in next to him. 

Sam Houston will be able to shoulder the loss of RB1 Jay Ducker, if Ducker indeed does not play. Fellow committee RBs DJ McKinney and John Gentry are both solid players. 

Sam Houston has gotten strong offensive line play this year, even through Beall’s injury. The Bearkats rank No. 32 in yards per carry before contact. They should have ample success attacking Georgia Southern’s shoddy run defense. GSU’s run defense ranks No. 117 in success rate, No. 122 yards per carry allowed (sacks omitted), and No. 106 in EPA/run.

On the other side of the ball, GSU has a pass-tilting Air Raid offense. That pass offense has been decent overall, ranking No. 59 EPA/dropback. Georgia Southern completes a high rate of passes (No. 24 completion rate) while taking care of the ball (No. 22 INT %) – it just doesn’t generate explosive plays (No. 106 marginal explosiveness).

Sam Houston’s No. 50 SP+ defense will be the best unit on the field on either team so long as it isn’t nuked by opt-outs. Sam Houston, in particular, boasts one of the G5’s best pass defenses. The Bearkats rank No. 18 success rate, No. 9 in yards/dropback, and No. 10 in EPA/dropback.

My system is showing significant line value on Sam Houston. The on-field handicap lines up with that. We’re lastly buoyed by GSU HC Clay Helton’s awful history in bowls. Helton has gone a career 1-6 ATS over seven career bowl appearances. In the past, Helton has used bowl berths to prioritize player development in pre-bowl practices over tailored gameplans. The game itself has been more of a vacation than a business trip.

Thor’s Bet: Sam Houston +6