Way-Too-Early NFL Week 1 Betting Odds and Picks: The Rams Are A Value Bet
Adam Kaufman browses the Week 1 odds board and fires off some way-too-early Week 1 bets.
There are still nearly four months until the NFL season kicks off.
Agonizing, honestly.
Fortunately, the schedule release at least gave bettors something meaningful to chew on: Week 1 betting odds. And historically, these are some of the softer numbers we’ll see all season.
Sportsbooks are pricing uncertainty. Bettors are pricing optimism. Somewhere in the middle lies opportunity.
Now, I’ll be candid: tying up bankroll for months on standard -110 bets has never really been my thing. Futures with plus-money payouts? Different story. But regular-season sides in May require patience, discipline and a willingness to live with a lot of unknowns between now and September.
That said, a handful of Week 1 numbers already stand out.
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Week 1 NFL Betting Odds and Picks To Target
Rams -2.5 (-110) vs 49ers
Of the last 14 meetings between Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan, 10 have been decided by one score. That includes four wins for Los Angeles in the last five meetings.
So, yes, history suggests we should expect another tight game when the NFL makes its Australian debut with these NFC West rivals.
But this line still feels short.
The Rams are the betting favorites (+800 on DraftKings Sportsbook) to win the Super Bowl, and it’s easy to see why. McVay remains one of the league’s premier offensive minds, reigning MVP Matthew Stafford is healthy, and Los Angeles enters the season with one of the NFL’s more steady environments.
Puka Nacua, Davante Adams and Kyren Williams give the Rams explosiveness at every level, while the defense notably improved by adding Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson.
Meanwhile, San Francisco still carries the reputation of an NFC powerhouse, but durability concerns across the roster are difficult to ignore. Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, Brock Purdy and veteran addition Mike Evans have all dealt with significant injuries recently, and Kittle may not even be available for the opener.
You never want to project injuries, especially this far out, but injury concerns are part of evaluating a roster in May.
And, right now, the Rams simply feel like the more stable and complete team entering Week 1.
Bears -2.5 (-110) at Panthers
This feels like one of those lines that won’t stay below three for very long.
The Bears are going to attract plenty of offseason hype, and justifiably so after winning a difficult NFC North.
Chicago has built an outstanding infrastructure around Caleb Williams entering Year 3, with a loaded skill-position group that features Rome Odunze, Colston Loveland, Luther Burden and D’Andre Swift.
The Bears were an overtime loss away from the NFC Championship Game last year and still feel like a team on the rise. As for the Panthers, they’re trying to prove last season’s division title was more progress than a temporary surge. This franchise still hasn’t finished above .500 since 2017.
Carolina did improve defensively with the acquisition of Jaelan Phillips, and to its credit, the team was excellent against the spread as home underdogs last year, going 6-2 ATS while winning five outright.
But this isn’t a sneak-up-on-anyone spot anymore.
Chicago has too many ways to create explosive plays, and the market may still be slightly undervaluing how dangerous this offense can become under Ben Johnson.
Bills ML (-112) at Texans
In last year’s wide-open AFC, Buffalo lost out to New England for the AFC East crown, then fell short in the divisional round.
The response? Sean McDermott out as head coach, Joe Brady promoted. And a viable No. 1 receiver for Josh Allen in DJ Moore. Nice complement to an offense already posting 30 points on the regular.
The Bills are hungry and seemingly undervalued here. While the Texans upgraded their roster in the wake of their own second-round playoff defeat by bolstering the run game with David Montgomery, Buffalo remains superior overall, and that should prove itself in Houston to begin the year.
Allen will undoubtedly be tested again by a tenacious Texans front, led by Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, but this is a potential playoff preview out of the gate, and the former MVP’s experience will win out in what’s likely a low-scoring affair.
Falcons +3 (+100) at Steelers
The football world’s worst-kept secret is out. Aaron Rodgers is back in Pittsburgh, reunited with his old Packers coach, Mike McCarthy.
Whether Atlanta ultimately starts Michael Penix or Tua Tagovailoa, I trust the Falcons’ offensive ceiling more than this line suggests. Bijan Robinson remains one of the NFL’s most dangerous weapons, and Atlanta has enough speed and skill-position talent to stress defenses horizontally and create chunk gains.
Between McCarthy and Kevin Stefanski, both clubs enter the season with experienced new head coaches, so there will be a feeling-out process.
That matters in Week 1, where sloppy execution and lower-scoring games tend to favor underdogs.
And candidly, this feels much closer to a coin-flip game than the market currently suggests.
Broncos +3 (-110) at Chiefs
At some point, Kansas City’s market inflation becomes impossible to overlook.
Patrick Mahomes is expected back from a torn ACL, but even if he’s fully available for Week 1, it’s fair to wonder how quickly he regains his usual mobility and comfort level.
The Broncos are coming off an AFC-best regular season, Bo Nix should return from the ankle injury suffered in last year’s divisional round, and the offense added a major weapon in Jaylen Waddle to pair with Courtland Sutton.
But the biggest reason I like Denver in this matchup is simple: the defense.
Vance Joseph’s unit has consistently made life challenging for Mahomes, even when Kansas City was operating at peak offensive efficiency.
And while Arrowhead remains one of the toughest places to play in football, getting a full field goal with a legitimate contender is hard to pass up.
This is another underdog that feels very live to win outright.
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