2024 NFL Underdog Pick’em Totals: Season-Long Props to Target

Underdog Fantasy just released a ton of season-long props for their pick’em contests, and some the early NFL lines have our attention.

Early season-long NFL props can often offer us some great opportunities for betting and pick’em, as the lack of clarity about upcoming player roles and offensive tendencies can mean less efficient lines.

Overall, if you have a strong stance on a player’s prospects for 2023-24, this is also a great time to scout out a couple of targets and see if you can profit off of your conviction.

Using the Pick’em Builder from FantasyLife+, I’ve built out a five-way ticket on Underdog for the new season. The Pick’em tool provides a projection for each player (to the LOWER or HIGHER) and is a great way to seek out the best edges in the market.

You can tail all five plays with me (in a single ticket) or pick and choose which ones you like best and create your own ticket. Let’s dig in and see if we can’t profit from a little early-season prop action.

Tank Dell HIGHER than 825.5 Receiving Yards

FantasyLife+ Projection: 905.5
Negatives: Coming off a severe leg injury (broken tibia); was shot this offseason (full recovery, thankfully); Texans brought in Stefon Diggs
Positives: Scored seven TDs as a rookie (10 games); 14.3 aDOT and 15.1 YAC per game; CJ Stroud is his QB

I get why there is a little bit of trepidation with Dell heading into year two.

He’s coming off a severe leg injury (broken tibia) and his target share may decline after the Texans brought in Stefon Diggs.

I’m not going to go point by point and refute these issues (they are both potential negatives to take note of), but it does feel like the dearth of “bad news” has stopped people from seeing the upside on Dell.

In his rookie season, Dell managed seven TDs in 10 games. He had a 14.3 aDOT and was 19th in yards after the catch per game, which ranked 19th among all receivers and directly in front of the league's leading receiver in Tyreek Hill. Last season, Dell played in eight games where he saw a 60% snap share (via @followthevolume). If you extrapolate the stats he had in those eight games over a full season he would have produced the following season-long line: 87 receptions, 1,358 yards and 15 TDs.

If anything, I would suggest the FantasyLife+ projections are likely still too bearish on Dell, whose HIGHER on Underdog projects with an 80-yard edge in our Pick’em Tool.

By all accounts, Dell is healthy and over his scary experience from the offseason (when he and nine other people were shot at a party in Florida). As long as his health stays intact I’m not going to allow the presence of an aging Stefon Diggs to scare me off taking the HIGHER.

Kyle Pitts HIGHER than 750.5 Receiving Yards

FantasyLife+ Projection: 824.0
Negatives: Not a guarantee the Falcons are high volume passing team; lots of mouths to feed; this literally never works
Positives: Getting a massive upgrade at QB; getting a more massive upgrade at offensive coordinator

Like every hotblooded bettor and fantasy football degenerate, I will take my turn pumping the Kyle Pitts hype train this offseason.

No longer attached to Desmond Ridder and Arthur Smith, Pitts will be guided this season by Kirk Cousins and new OC Zac Robinson who, as the passing game coordinator of the Rams last year, helped guide a similar freakish athlete in Puka Nacua to 105 receptions and 1,486 receiving yards.

Cousins may be older and coming off a major injury, but he also ranked sixth in EPA per play last year and has helped TJ Hockenson to 900-plus yard seasons in back-to-back years.

Last year, with Atlanta ranking fourth in run rate and Arthur Smith doing everything he could to make Jonnu Smith (aka “fetch”) a thing, Pitts still managed to post 667 yards last season. If Atlanta is even slightly more efficient passing the ball with Cousins and Robinson, we may see the still uber-talented Pitts blow this number out of the water.

Given the 74-yard edge projected in the Pick’em Tool, I don’t have any solid reason to fade Pitts who owes all of us at least one more baller season after the mediocrity we have suffered through the past two years.

Jordan Addison LOWER than 6.5 Receiving TDs

FantasyLife+ Projection: 5.5
Negatives: Scored 10 TDs as a rookie and has little competition for targets after Justin Jefferson
Positives: Off-field issues may land him suspension (from league or team); massive drop in QB play coming for second-year; Justin Jefferson fully healthy

Addison is clearly a talented player. In his rookie year, he managed 10 TDs and earned 108 targets while playing alongside Justin Jefferson for a large portion of the season. However, dissecting his rookie season also brings up some red flags.

Seven of the 10 TDs Addison scored last year came in eight games with Kirk Cousins under center, and five of those 10 TDs came with Cousins but without Justin Jefferson on the field, who missed Weeks 6 to 12. In the nine games without Cousins? Addison managed just three TDs. He also caught three or fewer passes in the final five games of the year when Cousins was out and Jefferson was fully healthy.

The Vikings passing game figures to struggle without Cousins this season, as either Sam Darnold or JJ McCarthy will take the reins. Darnold has never completed over 62% of his passes in a full season and has never thrown for more than 20 TDs. Additionally, there are already heavy rumblings that McCarthy may need a year of seasoning. The Vikings' off-season signing of Aaron Jones also points to what may be a more run-based approach.

Add in Addison’s recent off-field issues (he was arrested recently on suspicion of DUI) and there is the tail risk of a suspension to worry about as well. The FantasyLife+ projections seemed to have sniffed this one out already, projecting Addison’s LOWER with a full TD edge. It’s a prop I'm happy to play given the way things are currently playing out in Minnesota this offseason.

DeAndre Hopkins HIGHER than 4.5 Receiving TDs

FantasyLife+ Projection: 6.0
Negatives: Signing WR entering 32-year-old season; far more competition for targets; questionable QB play
Positives: Really low TD total; potential big boost from head coach change; historically one of best TD scorers at his position

I’m gonna try and keep this one short and sweet. DeAndre Hopkins may be 32 years of age but he’s not a player who has ever had issues finding the end zone, regardless of who is throwing him the ball. In his last seven seasons in the league, only once did he fail to get over this 4.5 total — and that came back in 2022, in an injury-plagued nine-game season.

It’s worth noting that Hopkins didn’t suffer when the switch was made to Levis last season, either; in fact, he thrived. Hopkins caught all seven of his TDs after the Titans made Levis the starter after Week 8, and all but one of his receiving TDs came from the arm of the rookie.

Tennessee Titans quarterback Will Levis (8) reacts after wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (10) received a pass for a touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons during the first quarter at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, Oct. 29, 2023.

The Titans brought in some new faces who may siphon off a few targets, but neither Tyler Boyd nor Calvin Ridley have ever been the consistent red zone threat that Hopkins has been throughout his career. Neither of them has the connection that Hopkins has with Levis, either, a factor which I expect will still make him the preferred end zone target when the Titans get near the goal line.

Side Note: You can also pair Hopkins’ HIGHER with a Will Levis HIGHER on his 20.5 Passing TD prop. I’ve already created a couple of pick’em tickets with these two together. You lose a little bit of multiplier (eg. your payout goes down a touch) but the two are highly correlated and new Titans head coach Brian Callahan is likely to allow Levis a lot more leeway than he had last year in Mike Vrabel’s antiquated offense.

D’Andre Swift LOWER than 7.5 Rushing TDs

FantasyLife+ Projection: 6.0
Negatives: Was given a big contract by Bears, figures to lead the backfield in touches; Bears offense COULD be much improved
Positives: Still part of a very crowded backfield; past injury issues; on third team in three years and has only gone over 7.5 rushing TDs once (as a rookie)

Over seven rushing TDs is a massive total for a player who is now on his third team in as many years and has some decent talent nipping at his heels for touches. Yes, Swift was signed by the Bears to lead this backfield, but last year he was recruited by the Eagles in a very similar fashion and still ended the year with just five rushing TDs despite playing a career-high 17 games.

The tush push may have had a large part in suppressing his TD totals as an Eagle, but Swift also won’t have the luxury of being a part of the same kind of dynamic offense he was on last year in Philadelphia, which ranked seventh in EPA per play. The 25-year-old may be free from perennial TD vulture Jalen Hurts, but will also be attached to a QB in Caleb Williams, who rushed for 23 TDs in his final 26 games of college ball.

Fading big totals on RBs is something of a guilty pleasure of mine to begin with, so with FantasyLife+ projecting his LOWER with a 1.5 TD edge, I like adding him to the ticket, even if we have to take a slightly smaller multiplier to do so.

NFL Season-Long Pick'em Combination

(5-way; 17x multiplier)