Peter Overzet offers his weekly snapshot of DFS plays like Tyreek Hill on DraftKings and Underdog for Week 8.

Boy do we have a good show on tap for you today.

Not only do we have a 13-game Main Slate this weekend thanks to zero teams on bye, but there is a multitude of values to take advantage of in your DFS lineups.

When the malevolent injury gods close a door on some of our favorite players, the benevolent value deities open a path to building supercharged rosters. 

There will be a temptation this week to load up on all of the value because we've largely been deprived of it this 2024 season with tight pricing. But there are two main reasons to be very picky with the value plays:

1) Value = chalk. Everyone has access to good projections these days, including ours at Fantasy Life. This means that the values are hardly secrets and they can quickly become the most popular plays on the slate (aka "chalk"). Now chalk isn't bad in a vacuum, but we always need to be thinking about ways to differentiate our lineups from the field to provide us an easier path to first place. Generally, a blend of chalk and contrarian pieces is the sweet spot we should be aiming for.

2) Punt value = low ceiling. Not all value is created equally. The super cheap value often comes without a ceiling. For example, there can end up being a huge opportunity cost to chasing value at the WR position where you'll often need three 20-plus-point scores to win a tournament. This creates a tricky dynamic where a $3,000 WR can pay off their price tag with 15 points but prevent your team from finishing in first.

With that being said, let's dive into a value-laden awards ceremony today…

🏆 THE WEEK 8 PRICING GLITCH (FINS UP)

We've talked about pricing glitches around here before. Sometimes they happen because salaries come out before we learn new information. Other times it's because the DraftKings pricing algorithm can't keep up with the rapidly evolving nature of NFL roles and performance.

But I have no explanation for what happened with the pricing for the Dolphins this week. We've known for weeks that Tua Tagovailoa ($6100) was trending to return in Week 8 after his stint on IR and yet our salary overlords remained asleep at the wheel:

• Tyreek Hill ($7,000)
• De'Von Achane ($6,200)
• Raheem Mostert ($5,900)
• Jaylen Waddle ($5,400)

So now we get a fully healthy Dolphins team at home with a 24.5-point team total vs. one of the worst defenses in football (Cardinals). 

Tyreek is by far the biggest beneficiary of Tua's return. He's had a sad-trombone-worthy 164 scoreless scrimmage yards in Weeks 3-7, but that's about to change. Per Freedman, "The Cardinals are No. 32 in defensive dropback SR (55.8%) and could be even worse without CB Sean Murphy-Bunting (neck)."

Achane should also see a big boost. He looked much better in Week 7 (5.1 YPC) and earned 4 goal-line carries. The volume is already there and the efficiency should follow with competent QB play.

Tyreek and Achane are naturally going to be two of the best and most popular plays on the slate, which means we should indulge alternative ways to attack Tua's return. Fortunately, Waddle and Mostert provide us with a couple of intriguing pivots.

Waddle has been unusable without Tua–he has finishes of WR35, WR51, WR50, WR38, and WR67 with Tyler Huntley at the helm—but he averaged 15.5 points in healthy games last year with Tua. He's a really compelling tournament pivot.

It's a similar dynamic for Mostert. He's in a 1B with Achane right now—last weekend he handled 31% of the attempts and posted a 28% route participation—but we know that he can feast near the goal line when the Dolphins are rolling. Per Dwain, "Last year, in games with 10 to 14 opportunities, Mostert posted RB18, RB31, RB11, RB34, RB20, RB13, RB18, RB21 and RB26 finishes." Considering the Cardinals defense allows the sixth-most rushing yards per game, it's worth sprinkling in some Mostert this week. 

🏆 IT'S PUNT QB WEEK

Last week it was "Pay Up To Be Contrarian At TE Week," but Week 8's theme is all about saving money at the QB position. There are three cheap QBs who stand out, though we are going to save one of them for the Vomit Stack of the week:

• Jameis Winston ($5,200)
• Bo Nix ($5,600)

The Lord heard our recent prayers and has now blessed us with what we've all been waiting for—Winston starting at QB for the Browns. Cleveland has only an 18-point team total here, but it should be chucking it all day long to keep pace against a very good Ravens team. Winston has been a solid producer his entire career and I'm very interested in double stacking him with David Njoku ($5,100) and Cedric Tillman ($3,300).

As for Nix, this is simply a bet against an opponent and this week the Broncos are nearly 10-point home favorites vs. a reeling Panthers squad. As if the spot couldn't get any better, the team has a three-day rest advantage after playing on TNF in Week 7. Nix has elevated his play from bad to average in the past month with 4 passing TDs to only 1 INT and a nice chunk of rushing production (24-145-1). But again, the play here is attacking a banged-up Panthers defense which is extremely friendly to opposing QBs.

🏆 THE VOMIT STACK OF THE WEEK (HERBERT DOUBLES)

Last week our Geno vomit stacks came close to hitting (Noah Fant ended up being the gem of the trio), so let's see if we can actually hit a two-run home run this week:

• QB Justin Herbert ($5,400)
• WR Ladd McConkey ($5,100) 
• TE Will Dissly ($3,000) 

It's no secret that Jim Harbaugh loves running the ball more than his own children, but he loosened his grip on the "RUN THE DAMN BALL" button in Week 7 as Herbert threw for 349 yards on 39 pass attempts.

The Saints have been a sieve of late, so this feels like a slightly less pukey vomit stack than normal.

McConkey has yet to have a blow-up game, but the Utilization is rock solid (25% targets, 25% TPRR) on the year. One of these weeks he's going to put up a Diontae Johnson-esque PPR scam line and I think this could be that week.

Dissly took advantage of no Hayden Hurst on MNF while hauling in an absurd 10 of his 11 targets. Keep an eye on Hurst's practice reports (he was a DNP on Wednesday and Thursday), but if he sits again Dissly should vacuum up a nice amount of targets here at a very palatable price tag.

🏆 SCROLL DOWN FOR THESE BIG HOME FAVS (DOBBINS & JAVONTE)

One of the benefits of playing DFS on multiple sites is that pricing dynamics can make some players far better plays on one site than the other. That's exactly what's at play with two RBs on teams we've already discussed this week:

• J.K. Dobbins (ADP: 34; $6,900)
• Javonte Williams (ADP: 33.6; $6,000)

We've already talked about the Chargers and Broncos both being in awesome spots this weekend, so then the question becomes where do we think the points will come from?

Both Dobbins and Williams (especially Dobbins) are pricey on DraftKings, but are almost completely overlooked on Underdog. I like the idea of playing it through the passing games on DK, but pivoting to the backs on Underdog. 

Despite Kimani Vidal's emergence, Dobbins has a strong 71% snap rate, 69% rush share, and 41% route rate in his two games without Gus Edwards and the Saints are coming off back-to-back weeks of giving up monster outings to both the Bucs RBs and Broncos RBs.

Speaking of which, Williams had the best game of his career vs. the Saints last week and has a very solid 7.7 Utilization Score in his past two games.The Panthers are just as bad on the ground—they give up the biggest fantasy boost (8.3) of any defense to the RB position—as they are through the air. 

Scroll down for both of these guys in your Underdog drafts this week and … profit?

For more Underdog draft strategy angles and hidden gems, I'll be posting a strategy video on the Deposit Kingdom channel on Friday afternoon. 

Good luck this week. 

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