Before we dive into the Week 10 picks, let’s keep the weekly accountability checks going:

• Week 9: Rough week, only Hunter Henry helped squads
• Week 8: Whiffed on our AFC South QB stacks, but Trey Mcbride did us proud
• Week 7: Very upset we didn’t unearth D’onta Foreman, but Rashee Rice and James Cook got there
• Week 6: Rough week, had the wrong QB/TE duo from Commanders/Falcons game
• Week 5: Resurrection bye week
• Week 4: Fields breakout game vs. the Broncos
• Week 3: Whiffed on our RBs and Jahan Doson, but nailed Tank Dell 
• Week 2: We called the Lions/Seahawks the matchup to target and the two teams combined for 68 points.
• Week 1: We unearthed one massive Hidden Gem in Brandon Aiyuk, who popped off for 28.9 points.

Last week was a gross slate, but ended up being my personal best week of the year. 

A large part of my portfolio was a total whiff (heavy on Patriots, D.J. Moore, etc.), but a couple of my C.J. Stroud double stacks bubbled up to the top of the contest and allowed me to snag two Top 10 finishes.

The big differentiators were Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz–who weren’t being drafted in the majority of Week 9 contests, but both finished first on the week at their respective positions.

The lesson, as always, is to be comfortable scrolling down past the Top 24 RBs/WRs and Top 6 onesies (QB/TEs) for the players who project well but are not being drafted in every contest.

We won’t always profit with this strategy, but it allows us to compete for the big prizes when a lot of the players in the Top 36 disappoint and/or players outside the Top 36 go off for huge scores.

Week 10 sets up as a much better slate than last week, with four games featuring totals with more than 45 projected points. Two of the games are pretty picked over ADP-wise (Chargers/Lions and Bengals/Texans), but the other two games present us with multiple sneaky plays that could result in a big pay day… 

As always, special thanks to Chad Maschke’s Battle Royale data for giving us drafted percentage numbers.

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Game Stack - Seahawks vs. Commanders

• QB Geno Smith (ADP: 35.4)
• WR Tyler Lockett (ADP: 34.9)
• WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (ADP: 35.9)
• QB Sam Howell (ADP 35.7)

We attacked this porous Commanders' secondary last week and we are going back to the well here again.

In Week 9,  they squared off against a Patriots team that fields a collection of WRs that more closely resembles an XFL squad than an NFL one. This week they’ll face a much tougher test vs. arguably the best WR trio in the NFL.

DK Metcalf (ADP: 19.1) is going fairly high in drafts, but Geno (QB7), Lockett (WR19) & Smith-Njigba (WR29) are often going undrafted in my early Battle Royale drafts.

This dynamic is eerily similar to last week when Stroud was going just outside the Top 6 QBs, Nico Collins was going in the Metcalf range, and Dell and Schultz were going largely undrafted.

This is the exact dynamic we should be looking to exploit in this contest:

Despite having very similar projections, one player is being drafted 100% of the time, and the other is being drafted less than 20% of the time.

I do fear Lockett is going to become increasingly popular as the week goes on, which is why I also want to highlight JSN and Sam Howell in this space as well.

If Lockett’s ADP moves into a range where he is regularly drafted, you can either add JSN onto Geno double stacks or use Lockett as a bring back to Howell stacks for uniqueness purposes.

Oct 1, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Washington Commanders quarterback Sam Howell (14) throws pass under pressure from Philadelphia Eagles linebacker Haason Reddick (7) during the fourth quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

If you go the Howell route, just make sure you pair him with one Terry McLaurin, Logan Thomas, or Jahan Dotson to capture the stacking upside.

The takeaway shouldn’t be to never select Metcalf (or Lockett if he gets steamed up), but to be cognizant of how many players on your team are likely being drafted in every contest (generally all of the players with an ADP higher than 30). 

If you find yourself with five selections who all have a high ADP, don’t be afraid to scroll down and go off the board with your final pick so you are pulling at least one uniqueness lever. 

Game Stack - 49ers vs. Jaguars

• Brock Purdy (ADP: 35.3)
• Evan Engram (ADP: 34.3)
• Christian Kirk (ADP: 35.4)

The Niners and Jaguars are two of the most fun teams for Battle Royale purposes because they each have four skill position players who can break the slate, but only a handful of them end up in the Top 36 picks. 

There aren’t many Hidden Gems on the Niners this week with Christian McCaffrey (1.1), George Kittle (24.8), Brandon Aiyuk (25.1), and Deebo Samuel (33.6) all being drafted in most contests.

Purdy (35.3), their QB, however, is not. This presents a nice opportunity to stack two Niners with their QB. The stack partners won’t be unique, but their combinatorial pairing with Purdy will be very unique, as evidenced by the sample data collected by Chad:

The Jaguars also present us with a couple of other sneaky ways to attack this game environment.

Engram looks like an awesome selection, as he currently sits as the TE7 and isn’t being selected in every draft. Similarly, Kirk (WR22) is going largely undrafted.

What I specifically like about Engram and Kirk is that they will likely serve as the safety valves for Trevor Lawrence when the Niners send the blitz. It’s always nice when a qualitative angle lines up with the DFS game theory. 

One note here: if Zay Jones is active, that will introduce another wrinkle into the equation. It would ding the upside scenarios for Kirk and Engram while bringing Jones into play as a Hidden Gem. 

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You could easily build a very strong portfolio simply by mixing and matching players from these two games. 

Remember: it’s perfectly fine to mix in the Big 4 on the Niners, Travis Etienne Jr., Kenneth Walker, and DK Metcalf. 

If these games go off, many of those guys will likely have big games. The key, though, is to make sure you are sprinkling in some of the Hidden Gem types referenced above so you aren’t competing directly with thousands and thousands of other teams with the exact same players.