Sleeper Picks for College Football Week 1: Back Haynes King Through the Air

Welcome to the season-opening Sleeper Picks column. If you’re new to DFS Pick’em games then let me first take you through what Sleeper Picks is.

Sleeper Picks is essentially a single-player DFS game on the Sleeper App where you build lineup cards of multiple players by choosing whether a player will go for “More” or “Less” than an objective total.

For example. If I think Patrick Mahomes has a better-than-average chance to throw for 300-plus yards in a game and his Sleep Pick total for passing yards is set at 274.5, I would likely view the “More” on Mahomes as a great play to include in my lineup.

Once you build out a card (two or more players), you then select the dollar amount you want to play for, and you’re set.

Side Note #1: At Fantasy Life we have a Pick’em Tracker. Yes, a tracker devoted just to sweet, lovely Pick’em lineups that you can tail (or semi-tail) as we progress throughout the season. Last year I ended the season up 65+ units in NFL and we’ll (hopefully) mimic a little of that success again in 2024.

How to play Sleeper Picks

Obviously, the goal of any game like Sleeper Picks is to win more than we lose, and to do that we need to make sure we are identifying and choosing +EV Picks (picks with positive expected outcomes over the long term) when making lineups. Essentially, when we think the implied odds of a play are lower than the true odds (aka our projected odds, or odds we feel are correct/true) then a pick is likely +EV.

Using the FantasyLife+ projections and good old-fashioned #research we’ll be trying to do that (make +EV plays) as much as possible again this year.

Side Note #2: We have a betting calculator on Fantasy Life you can use to calculate the implied odds of any play.

Week 1 College Football Sleeper Picks

For the inaugural Sleeper Picks article, we are heading to the college football streets. Sleeper has a ton of sports available to use, but college football is front and center this weekend — and a great sport to use to get used to the app. Since it’s opening weekend, some teams/players may be getting too much heat (overvalued) while others may be getting overlooked (undervalued).

Our job? Try and sift through that stack of players to find some solid targets for our Sleeper lineups and hope for a winning ticket for opening weekend.

Let’s dive in.

Sleeper Pick #1: Haynes King More Than 190.5 Passing Yards (1.78x)

King is a duel threat QB, but in his first full year full season as starter he amassed 2,842 passing yards in 13 games — good enough to average 218 passing yards per game. The junior sailed over this 190.5 mark easily in seven of his first eight games last year, but some tougher opponents and run friendly game-flow scenarios kept Haynes’ passing totals lower over his last four games.

Game flow shouldn’t be an issue in Game 1 of 2024, as King and the Yellow Jackets are +11.5 underdogs as of writing and will likely have some incentive to keep pushing the ball through the air late into this game. Florida State is a top tier opponent (and a tougher defense) but will be on the road in Game 1, a spot where they allowed 219.9 yards against per game last season.

Finally, while Haynes’ penchant for turning the ball over (16 INTs last year) may hurt the Yellow Jackets in this contest, it could also be a big help for our lineup. If Florida State manages a few quick scores off turnovers it will only increase the pass attempts for Georgia Tech, helping Haynes’ yardage totals.

Sleeper Pick #2: Preston Stone Less Than 20.5 Rushing Yards (1.74x)

We’re getting quite decent odds to take the less than on a slower rushing day for Preston Smith, a QB who has some athleticism but is far from an efficient runner.

Overall, Smith played in 12 games last season for SMU, and in half of those games he ended the day with four or fewer carries. In the six games where he managed to breach four carries, he only went over the 20.5 rushing yard mark on four occasions.

To give you an idea of just how inefficient a rusher Stone actually is, the junior carried the ball eight or more times in four games last year but only went over 20.5 rush yards once in those contests.

All things considered, Stone went under 20.5 rush yards in 66% of his games last year. With the 1.74x multiplier on Sleeper, we’re getting an implied probability of 57.47% to go with the less than in Game 1, which suggests an almost 10% edge off his production from last season. Stone could certainly up his rushing production this year, but with SMU set as +27 point favorites, there seems to be little reason for them to dial up a lot of designed runs in this spot, making the less than look like a very attractive play.

Sleeper Pick #3: RJ Maryland More Than 0.5 TDs (anytime) (2.05x)

As mentioned, the Mustangs are big favorites in this spot. They’re favored by nearly four full TDs and have an implied team total hovering just under 42.0 points. Last year they tied for 11th in the country with 33 passing TDs. With these kinds of numbers, playing for SMU to toss the ball into the end zone more than a couple of times is likely to be profitable in the long-term.

One way to get exposure to this higher-profile passing game on Sleeper is by taking SMU TE RJ Maryland to go for more than 0.5 TDs. Seven of those 33 passing TDs from 2023 were caught by Maryland, who has now caught 13 TDs over his first 24 college games — averaging a TD every fifth catch or so.

Outside of WR Jordan Hudson, the rest of the SMU receiving corps don’t offer much competition for red zone targets, so we’ll likely see Maryland get some great chances at scoring in this game.

With the multiplier above 2.0x, it’s another spot that likely offers a little value given the current line and opponent.

Full Ticket: 3-Way (6.3x)

RJ Maryland More Than 0.5 TDs (anytime) (2.05x)
Preston Stone Less Than 20.5 Rushing Yards (1.74x)
Haynes King More Than 190.5 Passing Yards (1.78x)

Sidenote #3: On top of our Pick’em Tracker, we also have a ton of college futures bets already posted in the Betting Tracker. Make sure you check ‘em out before the season gets too deep!

Good Luck!