We're switching things up this week to focus on the three-game Thanksgiving Day NFL DFS slate–one of the most fun slates on the fantasy calendar.

Underdog Battle Royale NFL DFS Strategy For The Thanksgiving Slate

Underdog is making it worth our while, as well. The lobby is stuffed to the gills with contest offerings. I can't even fit them all in on this screenshot:

Here's everything you need to know before dabbling in these contests …

Adjust To The Four-Person Drafts

Unlike the typical Battle Royale contests, which feature six-person drafts and 36 players drafted, the Thanksgiving contests feature four-person drafts with 24 players drafted.

This creates an interesting dynamic, specifically at the QB position, because there are six starting QBs and only four can be drafted in every contest.

Takeaway: I'll dive into some specific QB/TE strategy thoughts in a second, but it's important to pay attention to what your opponents are doing in these rooms, especially if you are near the turn. Before making any QB/TE selections, always check and see what your opponent has already drafted. If they have a QB or TE already, you can safely pass on that player until your next pick, knowing they have already selected that position.

Take Advantage Of The Rake-Free Contest

A typical contest on Underdog has around 11% rake. So in the case of the Week 11 Battle Royale contest ($7 entry, 45,000 entrants, $280k in prizes), Underdog is collecting $315,000 in fees and keeping $35,000 as their cut for hosting the tournament. This is common practice across all DFS sites (and the rake can be even higher on other sites).

But for one blessed contest, as a thank you to the community, Underdog has removed the rake altogether. The $7 Turkey contest will see all $250.1k in entries paid out to the entrants, including a $30,000 first-place prize:

That means normally $27,500 would be raked from this contest. And at $7 an entry, it means you are effectively competing against 4,000 fewer rosters than you normally would be in a contest that size. That's a huge edge!

Takeaway: If you are only going to play one contest on Thanksgiving, I'd make it this one.

Last Year's Winning Thanksgiving NFL DFS Lineup in Underdog Battle Royale

Reviewing last year's winning team is quite a blast from the past. Rico Dowdle on the Cowboys, Keenan Allen on the Bears and Jonnu Smith on the Dolphins …

This is a pretty straightforward lineup:

• 2 bellcow RBs
• A QB + double stack
• Elite TE (yes, Jonnu was considered elite at this time last year; he went at pick No. 6 in this draft)

Takeaway: The trickiest thing to balance on these shorter slates is correlation vs. perfection. We know correlating (stacking teammates/games) helps us get more things right with a single bet, but we also need to have the highest scores at each position to win a contest with 35,7000 entries.

Get A Piece Of All Three Pies

One of the reasons overly correlating will be tough on this slate is that all three games have good totals, with none below 49:

Similar to sampling one slice of pumpkin, apple and pecan for dessert, you'll also want to indulge in pieces from each of these games due to the juicy totals.

Takeaway: I'll have my share of stacks (QB + two pass catchers, QB/RB/pass catcher), but I don't think I'll be selecting more than three players from a single offense across my lineups. It's very hard to get four ceiling performances from one team while also having two other games fail to support other "had to have it" scores.

A Beautiful QB Slate

Last year the QB5 and QB6 on the slate were Cooper Rush and Drew Lock. Ya, it wasn't pretty.

This year, however, the QB5 is Joe Burrow and the QB6 is Jordan Love. Much, much better.

Based on current ADPs, it's safe to assume that Lamar Jackson (9.8), Patrick Mahomes (11.6) and Dak Prescott (18.6) will be selected in 100% of drafts while Jared Goff, Joe Burrow and Jordan Love all settle somewhere between 30-40%:

Considering that Lamar isn't running anymore, Mahomes is playing awful relative to his usual standards, and Dak faces a stingy Chiefs defense, this sets up to be a glorious scroll-down slate.

I don't think the Goff-Burrow-Love trio will project that much worse than the top three, and yet they will come with a 60+% discount. 

If I could perfectly allocate my exposures at these current ADPs, it would be something like:

• Lamar - 13%
• Mahomes - 12%
• Dak - 10%
• Goff - 25%
• Burrow - 20%
• Love - 20%

Don't Get Cute At RB

If there's one position where it's hard to get creative on this slate, it's definitely RB. 

I would divvy up the RBs into three different tiers:

Main Dish:

• Jahmyr Gibbs
• Derrick Henry
• Chase Brown 

All three of these guys are top-10 RBs in Ian's early Week 13 rankings. Considering the lack of depth at RB, I'm not passing on these guys at ADP … It is worth mentioning that Brown's elite role takes a hit if Samaje Perine is back.

Dressing:

• Josh Jacobs*
• Javonte Williams

If Jacobs goes, it's safe to wonder if he's lost a little work to Wilson, but he's still a high-end option thanks to his goal line role … Williams is a positive regression candidate despite the tough matchup. 

Sides:

• Kareem Hunt*
• David Montgomery

Hunt had 30 carries last week, but Pacheco could be back … Montgomery feels like a lock for a TD on Thanksgiving, especially after Gibbs got all the shine in Week 12.

Desserts:

• Emanuel Wilson*
• Isiah Pacheco*
• Keaton Mitchell

Yes, desserts are fun and tasty, but you really want to be full by the time the cart gets pulled out. It's worth taking some stabs on Wilson in case Jacobs misses a second game and/or forces a 50-50 split in his return.

The Packers Are The Skeleton Key At WR

I'm going to assume that I don't need to sell you on any of the top seven options here ...

Ok, maybe I need to sell you on the guy who scored 0 points last week, but you get the point.

Instead, I want to focus on what I think is the skeleton key to the slate—the Green Bay Packers WRs.

The combination of Jordan Love being the least-drafted QB and the spread-out nature of the Packers offense has resulted in some extremely low prices on the Green Bay pass catchers. I will be mixing and matching these guys with Love across a good majority of my rosters:

• Christian Watson (ADP: 20.9) - Watson is averaging 6 targets, 4.5 receptions, 47.5 yards, and 2 TDs over his past two games. Mark loves his matchup vs. a Lions defense that has the third-highest rate of man coverage and just got shredded by Wan'Dale Robinson down the field.
• Romeo Doubs (ADP: 23.1) - Doubs is the most consistent presence in Green Bay and leads all WRs in target share (21%) over the past five weeks. He's the best bet for a TD, even if he's been quiet of late.
• Jayden Reed (ADP: 23.9) - Reed is the wildcard who could return for the first time this season. Reed's playing time has historically been all over the place, but he's a talented player with significant upside who could help fill the underneath void vacated by Tucker Kraft.

If Reed appears to be trending in the wrong direction, I think you could also take some stabs at Dontayvion Wicks and Matthew Golden, but I much prefer these top three.

Spread Out Your Bets At Tight End

Yes, Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews are the top two options at TE, but I think it is a relatively flat tier at TE this week with no true elite options.

My two favorite options are Mike Gesicki and Isaiah Likely, both of whom will likely alternate as the de facto TE4 on slates, effectively splitting their ownership to 50% compared to 100% for Kelce, Andrews and Jake Ferguson.

I wrote about Gesicki's emerging role in the newsletter on Tuesday (as a glorified slot WR, he gets a great matchup vs. the Ravens).

As for Likely, he's simply a leveraged bet against Andrews (their target shares aren't that dissimilar over the past five weeks; 16% vs. 13%), who we know can make a little YAC noise in the open field.

Final Thanksgiving NFL DFS Thoughts

I wanted to get this piece out as early as possible so you had a framework to start drafting right away, but be sure to check our updated fantasy football rankings and NFL player projections for more precision and honing in on these tiers.

For more Thanksgiving Underdog strategy content, be sure to check out my show with the Badge Bros on Wednesday afternoon.

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