Geoff Ulrich delivers the NFL Week 10 Pick'em plays for Underdog and PrizePicks.

Welcome back to the weekly NFL Pick’em Plays article on Fantasy Life.

If you’re new, last year I put together a five-way Pick'em ticket using Underdog’s selection of Higher/Lower offerings. I would also sometimes include some extra suggestions at the end and a list of “play to levels” using our Fantasy Life projections.

This year, I’m changing things up a bit. We’ll still be doing the Underdog section (and a full ticket), but I’ll also be doing entries for PrizePicks. The writeups will be a little shorter but there will be more picks. 

Less boring analysis from me, and more of those sweet, sweet picks, driven by our FantasyLife+ projections and our awesome new Pick’em Lineup Builder—which, once you try it, you will seriously never understand how you got by without it. 

Now let’s get to the Week 10 plays …

Underdog Pick’em (5-Way; 16.49x)

• Josh Allen HIGHER 240.5 passing yards
• Dalton Kincaid HIGHER 4.5 receptions
• Jonathan Taylor HIGHER 80.5 rushing yards 
• Sam Darnold LOWER 30.5 pass attempts
• Aaron Jones HIGHER 0.5 TDs

For the main card on Underdog this week I’m heading to the Bills/Colts game, where I expect the yards may be plentiful for the stars on both sides of the ball. 

Buffalo ranks just 26th in yards per carry on defense this season and has also allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing RBs on the year. There are a lot of ways I think you could approach Jonathan Taylor’s props this week, but after he got only 13 carries against Minnesota last week, keeping it simple feels like the best strategy. I expect Taylor (who is now an extra week removed from an ankle injury suffered in Week 4) to get plenty of touches and excel in this spot against a Bills defense that allowed 137 yards rushing to the Dolphins RB group last week. 

If Taylor does go off on the ground, that should push Josh Allen into more dropbacks, and he’ll be up against a Colts team that allows opposing QBs a 70.1% completion rate (4th worst in the league) and 7.2 yards per attempt. 

We have Allen projected for 240 yards this week, which is just a hair larger than his 239.5 total on Underdog. However, if we’re using Taylor’s Higher it makes sense to go Higher on Allen, and also pair it with a Dalton Kincaid Higher, a player who I am overtly high on in this matchup. 

As I noted in the Week 10 prop article, Kincaid faces off against a Colts defense that bleeds catches and yards to TEs:

“On the season, the Colts have allowed 7.4 targets to opposing TEs per game (third most in the league) and 6.3 receptions to TEs (tied for most in the league with the Chiefs). That’s an 85% completion rate allowed to the position. 

"When you add in the fact that both Keon Coleman and Amari Cooper may either miss this game or be less than 100% if they do play, it's hard not to see Kincaid excelling this week.”

While you could certainly use the three-man stack from the Bills-Colts game as an entry on its own, I also love the idea of using a QB-RB correlation with the Vikings/Jaguars game–specifically taking a Sam Darnold Lower (on his 30.5 pass attempts) and an Aaron Jones’ Higher (on 0.5 rush/rec TDs). 

We had Darnold projected right around 28 pass attempts, to begin with in this matchup, but without Trevor Lawrence (questionable) on the other side to keep this game competitive, Darnold has a shot to go well under this number. He’s only thrown more than 30 times in a game twice (out of eight starts) and will need Mac Jones to play very well to accomplish that feat for a third time–something I don’t mind betting against this week. 

Assuming Darnold doesn’t have to throw much in the second half, we can also assume that’s likely because his RB, Aaron Jones (0.6 TD projection in Week 10), is having himself a day, and likely has found the end zone again (and potentially multiple times).

Jones is also coming off 8+ days of rest (the Vikings last played on Thursday), so I expect his usage won’t be curtailed this week (until later on anyway). 

Jones has only 3 TDs on the year, but with the Jaguars' defense having ceded 11 TDs to opposing RBs already, this is a great time for him to add to that total and carry the load for the Vikings offensively.  

PrizePicks (London 4-Way; 8x)

• Daniel Jones LOWER 30.0 pass attempts
• Tyrone Tracy HIGHER 16.5 carries
• Bryce Young HIGHER 178.5 pass yards
• Theo Johnson LOWER 28.5 rec yards

This Germany game pitting the Giants and Panthers seems like a solid one to target in Pick’Em lineups this week. We have a bad Panthers rush defense on one side, and an emerging early-down back in Tyrone Tracy—who has gone for 17+ carries three times in his last five games (and managed 16 last week, despite the Giants being down the entire game)—on the other.

Tracy should have success against this bottom-rated rush defense (31st in EPA per rush) and if he does, it will likely help keep Daniel Jones to a muted day passing-wise. 

QBs facing Carolina have averaged only 30.0 pass attempts per game this season and Jones threw the ball only 26 times last week against Washington (again, despite being down most of the game). Taking Jones for less than 30.0 pass attempts in this spot fits well with our Tracy narrative, and with the direction the Giants' offense seems to be headed, which is more ground-based and less reliant on the arm of Jones to save them. 

Finishing off this lineup, there were two other obvious plays I liked making that correlated very well with our first two picks. 

The first is to take Bryce Young to go for more than his 178.5-yard passing total. The Giants’ defense is second to last in opponent completion percentage (70.80%), and has held only one opposing QB under this mark this season (Jalen Hurts in Week 8, who only threw the ball 14 times in an Eagles romp win). Young hasn’t looked terrible the last two weeks, and if he’s ever going to manage his way to another 200-yard game before the season ends, this feels like a solid spot for him to accomplish that feat. 

The second play is to take TE Theo Johnson to go for less than 28.5 receiving yards. Johnson is coming off a great game (3-51-1), but his targeting is spotty (he had zero targets two weeks ago against Philly) and his yardage total this week has risen by more than 10.0 yards, over where it was against the Commanders in Week 9.

Moreover, if we like the Giants to control the ball on the ground, it’s only going to lead to fewer opportunities for Johnson, who is still only the third or fourth target in this somewhat limited Giants passing game.  

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