Underdog Pick'em Best Plays. Week 12

Underdog Fantasy is one of the fastest-growing companies in the industry. They’re known for their massive best ball tournaments and their snake draft format, but did you know they also offer pick ‘em contests? They work very similarly to traditional prop bets, with players having specific lines set in a variety of categories. You can then pair up to five of these selections together for up to a 20x return on your investment.

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Let’s dive into five of my favorite selections for Underdog contests in Week 12.

Antonio Gibson Under 56.5 Rushing Yards

Gibson has seen a nice spike in value over the past couple of weeks. J.D. McKissic suffered a season-ending injury, so Gibson has taken over as the top pass-catcher out of the Commanders’ backfield. That’s resulted in an uptick in snaps, and he had a 68% snap share last week versus the Texans.

Gibson also led the team with 18 rushing attempts, but he wasn’t particularly efficient. He averaged just 4.0 yards per carry against a Texans squad with the worst run defense in the league, and he has averaged just 3.7 yards per carry for the year.

Brian Robinson had 15 carries in that contest, but he had previously served as the team’s top runner. He logged more carries than Gibson in each of the previous three games, but there was enough volume to satisfy both players last week.

There might not be quite as much work available facing the Falcons. They’re much more competent on the offensive end, so the odds of the Commanders building a big lead is less likely. The Falcons have also been more exploitable through the air than on the ground, so they could lean on the passing attack a bit more this week.

Add it all up, and Gibson should see significantly fewer carries than he did against the Texans. I like his chances of going under this number.

Russell Wilson Over 219.5 Passing Yards

It has been a disastrous season for Mr. Unlimited. There were high expectations after moving to the Broncos in the off-season, but their offense has been nothing short of a disaster. The Broncos have won just three games despite boasting one of the best defenses in the league.

Wilson’s numbers have unsurprisingly taken a nosedive. He’s averaged just 7.1 adjusted yards per attempt after averaging 8.2 in his ten years with Seattle. He’s tossed just seven touchdown passes in nine games, and his 2.3% touchdown rate is easily the worst mark of his career. Making matters worse, Wilson’s replacement in Seattle – Geno Smith – is having a Pro Bowl-worthy season. Things literally could not be going any worse.

However, while the Broncos have struggled to put the ball in the end zone, they’ve still moved the ball decently. They rank 15th in passing yards per game, and Wilson has racked up at least 237 yards in five of his past six games.

That makes this number simply too low for a matchup with the Panthers. They rank just 21st in pass defense DVOA, so the Broncos should have some success between the 20s once again.

Isiah Pacheco Over 57.5 Rushing Yards

We’ve officially seen a changing of the guard at running back in Kansas City. They’ve used a three-man committee at the position all year, but Clyde Edwards-Helaire started the season as the team’s top option. That changed in Week 7. Pacheco moved into the starting lineup, but he was still splitting carries with CEH pretty evenly.

That changed again in Week 10. Pacheco racked up 73% of the Chiefs’ rushing attempts, while Edwards-Helaire failed to log a single carry. CEH then suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 11, so the coast is clear for Pacheco to handle most of the rushing opportunities.

Pacheco has logged at least 15 carries in back-to-back games, and he’s recorded at least 82 yards in both contests. He’s averaged 5.1 yards per attempt for the year, so he should continue to thrive with increased opportunities.

Pacheco is still going to lose some touches to Jerick McKinnon, but McKinnon is more of the long-yardage specialist. He’s had just 39 carries for the year, and he’s had more than four rushing attempts in just three contests. That leaves Pacheco to handle most of the opportunities.

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Justin Herbert Over 280.5 Passing Yards

It has been a year to forget for Herbert and the Chargers. They haven’t had a terrible season, but they sit at just 5-5 after last week’s heartbreaking loss to the Chiefs. The team has been hampered by injuries all year, and they’re still without key players in Joey Bosa and Rashawn Slater.

Fortunately, Keenan Allen was able to return to the lineup last week, and he made a huge impact. Herbert averaged 9.17 adjusted yards per attempt versus Kansas City, which was his third-best mark of the entire year. His other top games came in Week 1, where Allen was also available, and against a horrid Texans defense in Week 4.

Herbert’s efficiency has been down all season, but getting back Allen and possibly Mike Williams makes a world of difference. Volume has not been an issue for Herbert, who has averaged 41.6 passing attempts per game. He only had 30 attempts last week, but he still managed to get to 280 yards.

If he returns to his usual workload in Week 12, he should be able to crack 300 yards against the Cardinals. They rank just 22nd in pass defense DVOA, so it’s an excellent matchup.

Nov 6, 2022; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) throws a pass against the Atlanta Falcons in the first quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Ryan Tannehill Over 191.5 Passing Yards

This is a comically-low number for a quarterback in the year 2022. Tannehill is far from a gunslinger, but every quarterback in the league should be expected to throw for at least 200 yards per game. Even in the Titans’ run-heavy system, Tannehill has still averaged 210.6 passing yards per game. That gives him plenty of cushion against the current number.

Tannehill has also posted two of his best games of the year since returning to the lineup following an injury. He threw for 255 yards and two touchdowns against a tough Broncos defense in Week 10, and he followed that up with 333 passing yards and two scores versus the Packers.

Tannehill’s matchup with the Bengals isn’t ideal this week – they rank 10th in pass defense DVOA – but the Bengals’ offense should help. They have one of the most explosive units in the league, so the Titans might have to throw the ball a bit more than usual to keep up. Tannehill also put together one of the most embarrassing playoff performances of all time against the Bengals last season, so this is a bit of a redemption spot for him.

If you play Over/Under on Sleeper, check out my picks here!