Underdog Pick'em Plays. Top Picks for the Week 12

Welcome back to the weekly Underdog Pick’em Plays article on Fantasy Life.

This week, we have a special Thanksgiving edition for you to consume before you dive into the Turkey.

If you’re new, every week I try to put together a winning five-way Pick'em ticket using Underdog’s selection of Higher/Lower offerings. I also include some extra suggestions at the end and a list of “play to levels” and our Fantasy Life projections.

Not only do I provide the write-up for these five picks but I also provide extra plays in the Underdog Pick’em Tracker on Fantasy Life – where I’m currently up +35.0 units on the season.

I’ll be posting all my plays there again this week, including the one from this article, which you can read right now by continuing to scroll down the page…

As a reminder, you can play Pick'em on Underdog Fantasy, where you can get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up below with promo code LIFE!

Thanksgiving Underdog Picks

Tony Pollard HIGHER than 63.5 rushing yards

Play to: 64.5 HIGHER
Fantasy Life Projection: 60.9 rushing yards

The Cowboys face one of the league's worst secondaries this week but there will also be plenty of opportunity for them to run the ball as well. Since losing Montez Sweat and Chase Young after Week 8 the Commanders have been allowing a lot more explosive plays to opposing RBs. Rhamondre Stevenson went for 87 rushing yards on just 9 carries against them in Week 9 (his most efficient day of the year by far) and Saquon Barkley managed 83 yards on just 14 carries last week (5.92 ypc).

Pollard’s been a bit of an enigma in the sense that he has scored TDs in just two games, despite being on a high-profile offense that has blown out multiple weaker opponents. It’s possible Pollard is still working his way back from an offseason leg injury and the production he showed last week (20+ TD run, 5.2 ypc) is a good sign his explosiveness may be returning.

This number has risen a bit but I still like building 5-way cards around a HIGHER on Pollard in this game. The Commanders are turning the ball over at a high rate and Dallas should have the ball a ton in this contest, meaning lots of touches for Pollard.

Jake Ferguson LOWER than 35.5 receiving yards

Play to: 35.5 LOWER
Fantasy Life Projection: 36.8 receiving yards

If we like Tony Pollard overs then one way to correlate that pick on Underdog is to look to some unders on the Cowboys receivers – who, in theory, wouldn’t be seeing as many targets as usual if Pollard is excelling.

Jake Ferguson remains the main pass-catching TE for Dallas, but it is worth noting that rookie Luke Schoonmaker has now seen at least one target in four straight games, scored a TD last week, and nearly matched Ferguson in yardage (23 vs 32) against Carolina as well.

Even if he doesn’t steal Ferguson’s job outright, it’s hard to see Dallas not looking to give him a few extra snaps going forward.

Additionally, Washington, for all their faults, has been steady against opposing TEs, allowing the 12th fewest yards against to the position this season. While we do have Ferguson projected for right around this number the fact the LOWER correlates well with our first pick (Pollard HIGHER) makes it a good addition to our pick’em card for Thursday.

Sam Howell LOWER than 38.5 pass attempts

Play to: 38.0 LOWER
Fantasy Life Projection: 38.0 attempts

This is a massive total for any QB. Yes, the Commanders are letting Howell freewheel a bit but again, if we’re playing for a big day from Pollard on the ground, where the Cowboys are controlling the tempo and time of possession, then we have to consider the ramifications.

Howell simply may not have the ball enough to approach 40 attempts even if the Commanders are down a bunch late.

That has been the case in a lot of Dallas’ blowout wins this year. The Giants (x2) / Jets / Patriots / Panthers all failed to throw the ball more than 30 times in the game against the Cowboys, despite being down more than two scores late. Teams either gave up (ran out the clock) or simply couldn’t get the ball back.

We have Howell projected for 38.0 attempts, and even lower in our aggregate projections, making this a solid prop to attack with a LOWER from a pure value perspective as well.

You can combine the two Cowboys with Howell to 6x your buy-in and get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up with promo code LIFE!

Christian McCaffrey HIGHER than 32.5 receiving yards

Play to: 35.5 HIGHER
Fantasy Life Projection: 35.6 receiving yards

We’ll head to the 49ers game for our fourth pick and to a HIGHER on the receiving total on Christian McCaffrey. The Seahawks' secondary has some elite corners but their coverage in the middle of the field has been lacking most of the season. Pierre Strong Jr. had a solid 41-yard catch and run against them in Week 8, and Brian Robinson Jr. went for an irresponsible 119 yards receiving against them in Week 10.

McCaffrey may not leave the field much in this important divisional game and he’s seen his receiving usage rise since Week 6, posting a route rate of over 84% in his last four starts – with three of his last four games producing 40+ receiving yards.

Given Seattle’s solid corners, I like playing for the HIGHER on this total and for the 49ers to lean on McCaffrey here as a receiver.

You can tail the four picks for a 10x payout by clicking below!

Jared Goff HIGHER than 33.0 passing attempts

Play to: 33.5 HIGHER
Fantasy Life Projection: 35.5

We could certainly look to correlate Brock Purdy’s HIGHER (250.5 passing yards) with our last pick, but given the low yardage total we need from McCaffrey, I’d rather go to Detroit and go with a HIGHER on Jared Goff’s attempts – a quarterback who has thrown the ball 33 times or more in eight of 10 starts this season.

Goff only threw 28 times in the first meeting but Green Bay’s passing offense has improved and Detroit’s secondary has allowed yards at a disturbing rate of late – leading the Lions into more shootouts, and Goff throwing more.

Ultimately, this total looks a point or two too low according to our projections and is one of the more solid value opportunities for Thursday.

With this being a divisional matchup, I also like the idea of playing for a slightly closer game than expected and for Goff to continue his trend of approaching the mid-to-high 30s in attempts.

You can tail all five picks for a 20x payout and get your 100% deposit match bonus when you click below!

Sunday Main Slate Underdog Picks

Josh Allen HIGHER than 259.5 passing yards

Play to: 262.5 HIGHER
Fantasy Life Projection: 263.5

I’m a little surprised we don’t have Allen projected higher than he is. The Eagles game last week was more of an outlier (holding Mahomes under 200 yards) as they have been giving up plenty of big plays in the secondary all year.

They face a much better group of receivers this week and Allen and Buffalo likely come out and try to attack it from the get-go.

Stefon Diggs HIGHER than 73.5 receiving yards

Play to: 76.5 HIGHER
Fantasy Life Projection: 79.6

If we’re playing for a big game from Allen then I have no issues playing for the rebound week for Diggs alongside him. The Bills have played some teams with tough corners of late but won’t face much opposition here.

Diggs is also in the classic “Diva WR bounceback spot” and from a matchup perspective has one of the best in this game for Buffalo to attack. His projection on Fantasy Life suggests his HIGHER is one of the stronger edges to attack in this game as well.

D’Andre Swift HIGHER than 2.5 receptions

Play to: 2.5 HIGHER
Fantasy Life Projection: 2.9

Sticking with this game, we have a fast-paced offense in Philadelphia and a team in Buffalo that is likely to be throwing a lot. It should mean lots of snaps for D’Andre Swift again who has a very decent 12% target share on the season – and has seen his role in the passing game increase as the season has worn on.

Dallas Goedert is doubtful to return in Week 12 so Swift’s usage should stay strong in this spot. We have him projected for 2.9 receptions this week.

Derrick Henry HIGHER than 15.5 carries

Play to: 16.5 HIGHER
Fantasy Life Projection: 17.1

The Titans are 3.5 to 4.0 favorites this week and that’s a good sign we’re likely to see Derrick Henry rush the ball a little more in this game. In the Titans' three wins, Henry exceeded 20+ carries each time and he also went for 17 carries in the Titans' close game with the Steelers a few weeks ago (20-16).

The game against the Panthers should be a close affair as well making Henry a terrific HIGHER candidate on the carry volume.

Chuba Hubbard LOWER than 12.5 carries

Play to: 11.5 LOWER
Fantasy Life Projection: 11.8

The Panthers moved back into a genuine 50/50 split in workload in Week 11, with Miles Sanders taking 11 carries (and Hubbard 10). Hubbard is the more efficient back but they are not benching Sanders, their free agent singing, anytime soon – and Sanders to his credit did rush for 5.0 ypc last week.

The LOWER correlates nicely with Henry’s HIGHER as well. If Henry is taking a high number of carries A. Carolina won’t have the ball much and B. They’ll likely be in a more pass-heavy game script in the second half.