Roman Wilson Scouting Report and Fantasy Football Outlook

Roman Wilson Scouting Report

WR Super Model percentile: 45%
Underdog ADP: 148.3 overall (WR64), rookie WR10

Roman Wilson is a bit of a tough evaluation because there are some really exciting parts of his profile but also some serious red flags. He is an explosive athlete who flashed big play ability and was clutch when called upon, but played in an extremely run-heavy college offense that limited his usage.

He’s also an older prospect whose only notable college production came in his senior season. He will be 23 years old by the start of his rookie campaign and is nearly two full years older than other prospects projected to go in a similar range such as Xavier Worthy and Keon Coleman.

Year	Receptions	Receiving Yards	TDs
2023	48	789	12

For all his flaws as a prospect, Wilson does have one of the more inspiring backstories in this draft class. Overcoming an underprivileged background and getting up at 4 a.m. to catch a flight just to get to high school make him an easy player to root for and speak to his dedication and character.

Pros and Cons of Roman Wilson

Pros

Speed

Wilson has true afterburners and can run away from most defenders when he gets up to speed. He accelerates well out of his breaks and shows good lateral agility to create separation in small spaces, which will be important when playing out of the slot in the NFL.

He clocked a 4.39-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine and had a really strong 10-yard split number as well, which backs up the explosiveness and long speed that he showed on film. He could be a matchup nightmare for plenty of NFL safeties who will struggle to run with him.

Wilson was widely praised coming out of the Senior Bowl and put on a show in the 1-on-1 drills, showing off his speed and change of direction across various routes. It’s a bit of a cliche, but speed is one of the few things that can’t be coached, so it is a trait that teams want to draft, which makes it hard to envision Wilson falling far on draft day.

Wins at all three levels

Although he profiles as primarily a slot receiver in the NFL, Wilson isn’t just a target in the short areas. He has the speed to win deep and is a good enough route runner to be a target in the intermediate range. He showed good ball-tracking skills on his deep targets in college and had respectable contested catch numbers, especially for a player of his size.

Source: PFF

He posted fairly even production across short, intermediate, and deep routes, including a very impressive 67% catch rate on deep passes. This should make him a valuable weapon, especially for QBs who like to throw over the middle of the field.

He should be able to step in and effectively play a vertical slot role at the next level which gives him some nice fantasy upside relative to other slot receivers.

Cons

Poor college production

Despite playing in 44 career games at Michigan, including three seasons with at least 12 games played, Wilson only totaled 107 receptions for 1,707 receiving yards in his collegiate career. He never reached 50 receptions or 800 receiving yards in any individual season and only recorded two games with more than 100 receiving yards.

However, his production must be taken in the context of the offense he played in. Michigan was so run-heavy that Wilson never hit 300 routes run in any season, including 2023 when they played 15 games en route to a National Championship. For context, every other receiver he is currently being drafted near has a season with at least 350 routes and many have one with over 400 routes run.

Jan 8, 2024; Houston, TX, USA; Michigan Wolverines wide receiver Roman Wilson (1) against Washington Huskies defensive back Dominique Hampton (7) during the 2024 College Football Playoff national championship game at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The one silver lining of Wilson’s production profile is that he had an extremely high TD rate in college with just under 19% of his career receptions resulting in a score. While TD rate isn’t a very sticky stat, it is still an encouraging sign that Michigan relied on him in the most important areas of the field and he delivered.

Play strength

Wilson plays with toughness but clearly isn’t the strongest WR, and it shows up in a few ways. He gets jammed and pushed off his route too frequently, which disrupts timing throws and may make it more difficult for him to win over the middle at the next level.

He also struggles to break tackles after the catch and was credited with just nine missed tackles forced over his college career. He can create yards after the catch when there is open space to run into, but he isn’t going to make many defenders miss or run through first contact. This isn’t ideal for a slot receiver who will have to work in the more congested areas of the field.

That being said, it’s a relatively minor issue for a player who has the speed to just run away from defenders when there is space. He won’t be the best YAC threat, but definitely has explosive play potential when he catches the ball at full speed or with space to turn on the jets.

Fantasy Football Outlook for Roman Wilson

Overall I think Roman Wilson is a bit underrated due to his lack of college production, but I expect NFL teams to like what they see and for Wilson to hear his name called relatively early on day two of the NFL Draft. The landing spot is always important, but I do think there are a lot of offenses where Wilson could succeed thanks to his ability to win at multiple route depths as well as over the middle of the field.

He doesn’t have the highest ceiling in this loaded WR class, but it is easy for me to envision Roman Wilson being a rock-solid contributor to fantasy football rosters.

The biggest concern with players of his archetype is usually TD production, but if his strong TD rate translates from college to the NFL, he could be something of a mold-breaker.

Roman Wilson Scouting Report and Fantasy Football Outlook