Adonai Mitchell Scouting Report and Fantasy Football Outlook

Adonai Mitchell Scouting Report

Underdog ADP: 89.6 overall (WR45), rookie WR5
WR Super Model: 55th percentile

Adonai “AD” Mitchell was a relatively unheralded four-star recruit out of Tennessee back in the 2021 class. Just the 63rd-ranked WR by 247 Sports, Mitchell wasn’t exactly expected to become an immediate day-one contributor at Georgia … until he was!

While AD’s 38-560-7 receiving line in 21 games with the Bulldogs doesn’t immediately pop off the page, his time in Athens featured loads of big-time performances and included TDs in all four of his college football playoff games – two of which were go-ahead scores late in the 4th quarter against Alabama and Ohio State.

Mitchell then transferred to Texas in order to be closer to his daughter to finish up his collegiate career. His numbers catching passes from Quinn Ewers and company weren’t all that awesome aside from his continued habit of finding the end zone with regularity.

Mitchell among 148 qualified Power 5 WRs in 2023:

PFF receiving grade: 74.1 (tied for No. 58)
Passer rating when targeted: 126.2 (No. 16)
Receiving yards: 845 (tied for No. 31)
Receiving TD: 11 (tied for No. 9)
Yards per route run: 1.72 (No. 104)
Yards per reception: 15.4 (No. 36)
Targets per route run: 17.5% (No. 136)

Here’s the catch: Mitchell has flashed tantalizing ability as both a downfield maestro and a red-zone maverick. The production profile isn’t incredible – but the highlights sure are.

This brings us to today’s question: Will Mitchell be a more productive professional player than a collegiate athlete? Or should the film grinders take a longer look at his admittingly troubling statistical profile?

Let’s find out!

Pros and Cons of Adonai Mitchell

Pros

Size-speed specimen

The way Mitchell moves on a football field is that much more impressive considering he stands 6’2” and weighs 205 pounds.

Seriously: These are the sorts of numbers we usually see from guys missing three inches and 30 pounds from their frame.

40-yard Dash: 4.34 seconds (97th percentile)
10-yard Split: 1.52 seconds
Vertical Jump: 39.5”
Broad Jump: 11’4”
Speed Score: 117.1 (97th)
Burst Score: 135.2 (96th)

That 10-yard split was just 0.03 seconds removed from 40-yard dash king and Texas teammate Xavier Worthy (1.52), while the broad jump was better than any other WR at the 2024 NFL Combine. Hell, the latter mark was tied for the sixth-longest jump of any WR at the combine since at least 2013.

We’re talking about the fifth-best RAS score out of 3,188 WRs from 1987 to 2024 here. That seems good!

Sometimes these sort of workout warriors struggle to implement their physical skills on the gridiron, but that was far from the case with Mitchell. As Yahoo.com’s Nate Tice puts it:

“His athleticism shows up with how he is able to stay sharp on his route breaks. Even if he lacks detail with his route running, his ability to stay in control despite his explosiveness and size is impressive. Mitchell’s flashes are as bright as any receiver prospect in this draft.”

At a minimum, Mitchell looks like the sort of complementary receiver capable of demanding attention from at least one quality defender on any given play based on his physical tools alone. Of course, the 21-year-old talent isn’t exactly an unpolished talent when it comes to the finer intricacies of playing the position.

Eats big plays for breakfast

Leaving Mitchell on an island is a recipe for disaster. Overall, AD posted a blistering 98.0 PFF receiving grade against single coverage last season, regularly combining the ability to run right past defenders with scary good change-of-direction nuance in the red zone.

As Yahoo’s Matt Harmon notes, Mitchell was asked to run big boy NFL-caliber routes as a true X receiver at Texas, and his ability to respond with ELITE success rates on digs and outs against man coverage in particular are good signs about his ability to be more than just a one-trick pony field-stretching talent at the next level.

Yes, the man left a lot to be desired in his performance vs. zone coverage, and for a player with his natural ability, it was surprising to see him limited to three or fewer catches in 10 of his 14 games last season.

Also yes, did you see some of the targets that Ewers missed in Mitchell’s direction in 2023? Per Underdog Fantasy’s Josh Norris, just 15 of Mitchell’s 170 career targets were behind the line of scrimmage to four yards downfield – this wasn’t someone getting schemed easy production at any point of his career.

Overall, nobody had more unrealized air yards than Mitchell (535) among the top 30 WRs in the consensus 2024 NFL Draft big board.

With all that said: Mitchell, like anyone, isn’t exactly a perfect prospect.

Cons

Route-running consistency and effort aren’t great

Any scouting report on Mitchell tends to bring out a similar critique regarding his down-to-down urgency as a route-runner:

NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein: “His route running currently lacks focus and consistency, but agility and burst out of breaks will not be an issue.”
The Athletic’s Dane Brugler: “His route running loses rhythm at times, and he needs to be more consistently deliberate with each step.”
Yahoo’s Nate Tice: “There's overall inconsistency in his play. Mitchell will at times look like he’s guessing, and guessing incorrectly, on his route or assignment and it can take him out of the play.”

However, opinions are a bit contradictory when it comes to blocking. Zierlein calls it a weakness, noting Mitchell, “Doesn’t play with aggression or sustain when asked to run block,” while Brugler says Mitchell is, “Always looking for someone to block.”

There’s a reason why Mitchell isn’t in the conversation as a top-three WR in this class; his flashes weren’t sustained enough to produce big-time numbers at either Georgia or Texas. Additionally…

YAC leaves a bit to be desired

Mitchell averaged just 2.1, 3.9 and 3.2 yards after the catch per reception during his three collegiate seasons, forcing just nine total missed tackles along the way. This is particularly surprising given the aforementioned borderline erotic athletic profile on hand.

That said, Mitchell’s corresponding 16.8, 15.2 and 16.3-yard average target depths need to be considered when looking at his YAC. Low-aDOT receivers who live off screens will inevitably have more chances to rack up more yards after the catch by not dealing with as many contested-catch situations as field-stretching specialists.

Some comps for Mitchell:

George Pickens with less dog in him
Less polished Tee Higgins
Faster Gabe Davis
D.J. Chark

Reminder: Not every WR gets to be comped to prime Julio Jones. Having a similar play style and athletic profile as multiple receivers with 1,000-plus yard seasons to their name is hardly a negative.

Fantasy Football Outlook for Adonai Mitchell

The hype for Mitchell seems to be growing as we get closer to draft day. ESPN’s Adam Schefter told Adam Levitan that he believes Mitchell will go higher than pick No. 25, meaning he might just have a chance to be this draft’s overall WR4 to WR5.

Ultimately, Mitchell profiles as just that: The only WRs I definitely have ranked ahead of him are this draft class’ consensus big-three options.

It’s also fair to rank Brian Thomas Jr. and Xavier Worthy ahead of Mitchell, although I consider all three in the same tier.

If betting on elite athletic specimens with demonstrated ability to create big plays and win in the red zone is wrong, I don’t want to be right. Okay – I do want to be right – but seriously: Mitchell offers elite upside in tangible areas of the game that readily produce fantasy-friendly scoring opportunities – don’t discount what the 21-year-old talent could be capable of achieving in an offense willing to trust the vertical passing game.

Adonai Mitchell Scouting Report and Fantasy Football Outlook