Audric Estime Scouting Report and Fantasy Football Outlook

Audric Estime Scouting Report

Underdog ADP: 193.6 overall (RB59), rookie RB9

One metric isn't the end all, be all for a prospect, and I say that as someone who approaches prospect evaluation from an analytical perspective.

Still, we tend to boil players down to a number and then make assessments. However, the evaluation process should be a continuum. Every metric factored into the final result should be scrutinized and contextualized. For example, take Audric Estime’s relative athletic score (RAS).

Audric Estime Relative Athletic Score

Most might look at the Notre Dame RB’s RAS and shrug. After all, we want pass-catching RBs who can plow through defensive tackles on one play and then zoom past safeties the next sequence. We’re always looking for the next Christian McCaffrey!

That said, it's worth noting that the RB4 and RB5 in fantasy points per game (PPG) in 2024 each saw fewer than 40 targets on the season, and the RB12 last year in fantasy PPG saw just 23 total targets for the year.

Although a strong pass-catching role is preferred for fantasy RBs, we can still get solid production from RBs who don't have that. Based on Estime’s prospect profile, he could become one of those fantasy producers at RB without a large receiving role at the NFL level.

Audric Estime Pros and Cons

Pros

Early-down grinder

At 5’11 and 221 lbs., you’d expect a guy like Estime to leverage his frame. Even with a slower 40-yard dash time, his vertical and broad jump numbers indicate above-average short-area quickness that allows Estime to generate momentum.

Case in point. Even though it was on a small sample size of just six carries in his first collegiate season at Notre Dame, Estime averaged an impressive 7.3 yards after contact (YAC) per rush attempt.

And over his final two seasons in college, Estime had a respectable 4.0 YAC per attempt. Combined with his forced missed tackle rate, we shouldn’t have any concerns with Estime as an early-down backfield option regardless of where he lands in the NFL.

Yards after contact vs. Forced missed tackles

Of course, being pigeonholed into an early-down-only role would limit his fantasy ceiling. Still, Estime showed enough vision to be productive in short-yardage and goal-line situations, too.

In the right situation where he could see those valuable touches, Estime could still be productive and worth drafting in fantasy even as a rookie.

Explosive runner

Let me re-emphasize my earlier point: one metric alone doesn't define a prospect.

Folks may see Estime’s 4.71 40-yard dash time (4.61 on his Pro Day) and think that he can't be explosive, but that's far from the truth. There are plenty of examples of plays where the Fighting Irish product zoomed by defenders.

That was just one play.

And chunk gains don’t come from burst and long speed alone. RBs with solid footwork and vision with adequate quickness like Estime can still turn short gains into big plays.

Again, contextualizing every aspect of a prospect’s playstyle compared to looking at a single number helps. But as I talk out of both sides of my mouth, Estime’s explosive play rate (a single number) stands out among the rest of the 2024 rookie RB class.

Estime’s 22 runs of 15-plus yards were the fourth-most in the FBS in 2023. And at 221 lbs., that feat is all the more impressive when compared to RBs ahead of him who weigh less like Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams (205 lbs.), R.J. Harvey (195 lbs.), and Ollie Gordon II (211 lbs.).

While the explosive run rate can vary year over year, an RB doesn't forget how to run through gaps and set up blocks. As long as Estime's abilities translate to the NFL, we should see him make positive plays from Day 1 as a rookie.

Cons

Struggled to become the starter

With WRs, we tend to look at prospects not only in their ability to earn targets but also in how often they're targeted relative to their teammates. If a WR plays alongside other stars and still manages to command a high target share, that's great! If not, we may need to take a closer look at that prospect.

There's a similar approach used when evaluating RBs. How quickly an RB can (or can't) take control of his respective backfield demonstrates his dominance (or lack thereof) on the field. Unfortunately, Estime took a couple of years to become the clear starter for his team.

Kyren Williams led the Fighting Irish in his final collegiate campaign before declaring for the 2022 NFL Draft. Williams's absence then left Estime in a battle for the RB1 spot with Logan Diggs, and Diggs was able to force a timeshare and wound up with the second-longest TD reception during a bowl game for Notre Dame in the Gator Bowl.

Only after Diggs transferred to LSU did Estime assume the starting role in 2023. To be clear, this isn’t necessarily a death knell for Estime, but it's definitely a knock on his profile. While it's become common in recent years for NFL teams to rely on committee backfields, Estime's path to fantasy production could be murky if he can't carve out a significant role on the team that drafts him.

Wasn't a high-end target-earner

RBs with receiving skills are a hot commodity in fantasy. Their route-running ability ensures more snaps on fantasy-friendly passing downs as well as in general. Again, this is an area where Estime lags behind the other RB prospects in the 2024 rookie class.

To be fair, Notre Dame ranked 99th and 118th in passing rate in the two seasons that Estime played over 150 snaps on offense, so the run-heavy offense limited his potential to be used more as a receiver. Even so, the average route rate for this RB class was 41.0%, and Estime’s career-high in college sits at just 30.0%.

Fortunately, his 1.3 yards per route run (YPRR) at least indicates that Estime is capable of creating plays as a pass-catcher. However, we shouldn’t expect him to be too heavily involved on obvious passing downs or in two-minute situations as a rookie.

Fantasy Football Outlook for Audric Estime

There’s no doubt Estime can be an effective runner in the NFL. His ability to fight through contact and weave through traffic would make him a worthwhile addition to many offenses. Estime can also set up second-level defenders to gain extra yardage or just plow right through them.

However, teams may look at his physical profile and typecast him into a limited role. Nick Penticoff asks the essential question on everyone's minds:

Earning only 25 targets over two seasons in college will likely pigeonhole Estime into an early-down role as a rookie.

He could still be worth drafting at his current Underdog ADP of 193.6 overall, though, if Estime can seize a short-yardage and goal-line role. At the end of the day, his landing spot will play a large factor in his potential fantasy value for 2024.

Ideal landing spots

Arizona Cardinals
Buffalo Bills
Cincinnati Bengals

Audric Estime Scouting Report and Fantasy Football Outlook