Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Trade Cycles & QB Values

Welcome to the Dynasty Mailbag! My goal is to bring you thoughts, insight and research on the most pressing dynasty topics.

Let’s dive deep into some tough-to-decipher scenarios and mess around with some fun “what ifs.”

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Trade Value Cycle

“When is the best time to trade draft picks? It seems like right around the NFL draft? Same with acquiring older veterans… is their value typically the lowest around the NFL draft, too?”

This is such a great question and one I've seen more and more dynasty managers take seriously. Aside from drafting a good team (both in the startup draft and subsequent rookie drafts), understanding the broader economics of your dynasty league can give you a significant edge over your leaguemates.

There's a natural ebb and flow of player/pick value over the course of a calendar year. Supply and demand pushes up the value of certain assets while simultaneously driving down the value of others. Simply put, without doing anything on their own, both players and picks can fluctuate in value over the course of the year.

Let's start with veteran players, since that's what was asked. Those players reach their peak value right before the fantasy playoffs and/or a trade deadline (if your league has one). Teams that are gearing up for a deep playoff push are more willing to pay up for aging veterans who have been producing. These managers are more comfortable risking long-term value for short-term success.

Hey, you play to win the game.

At the same time, as veteran players are increasing in value, rookie picks are losing value. Teams with playoff aspirations are OK selling future picks to win a title now. That makes the trade deadline/fantasy playoffs a prime time to be buying future picks.

Fast forward a few weeks, and as soon as the fantasy season ends, rookie picks start rapidly increasing in value up until the NFL Draft. All attention turns toward the incoming rookie class as fantasy managers start dreaming about what their picks can mean for their team.

If you're in the market of selling draft picks, the time to do so is during the weeks leading up to the NFL Draft. Once those picks have players and landing spots tied to them, their value becomes a bit more concrete.

The QB Conundrum

“How do you approach drafting QBs with all the upside available this year? AR, Daniels, etc. have huge upside, but also potentially terrible long-term values.”

I'm choosing to approach this question from a Superflex format where you have the ability to start a second QB in your lineup. This rookie class brought us a slew of franchise-hopefuls and certainly a few potential fantasy superstars.

So, how do you go about drafting a startup dynasty team with so many options? Actually, they're aren't really that many good QBs in the league. My mild take of the day is that while there are 32 starting QBs in the NFL, there are not 32 good NFL QBs. Natural scarcity makes the position incredibly valuable, and the cheapest those options will ever be is during your startup draft.

Yes, in subsequent rookie drafts you can snag an incoming QB, but they have not played a snap in the NFL and are not guaranteed to be viable long-term. While our Fantasy Life dynasty rankings are formatted for 1QB leagues, a quick look at KTC will show just how highly people view the QBs.

Let's take a look at the QBs mentioned, along with another:

Anthony RIchardson: QB6
Caleb Williams: QB8
Jayden Daniels: QB12

Richardson appeared in just four games as a rookie yet managers are already pushing him into an almost-elite tier. We saw his massive rushing upside and he finished as a top-five option in both games he played essentially all the snaps.

Williams was the No. 1 overall pick, has the production profile and talent, and now has arguably one of the best supporting casts in the league. Daniels offers a rushing profile not unlike Richardson, and we've already seen what that can mean for fantasy.

When drafting this position in dynasty, I like to layer QBs with different profiles. As an example, snag someone like Richardson (high upside/more volatility) and then come back with someone like Jared Goff who has proven production, contract security and is just a bit safer overall. That's just one example, but there are lots of ways to build a winning QB room.

Dynasty Best Ball

“How do you approach team building in best ball dynasty in comparison to more standard dynasty leagues?”

If you're not familiar, best ball leagues follow the same initial structure as traditional leagues. You draft your team, either for one season (redraft) or forever (dynasty), but then that's about it. You don't set your lineup because the platform will automatically fill in your roster with your highest-scoring players after the week has concluded.

It's certainly more hands-off during the season, and the format has exploded in popularity thanks to Underdog Fantasy. However, in dynasty best ball, depending on your league setup, you may have the option to make waiver claims and trade with other managers.

When drafting your startup, I would focus a bit more on stacking high-end players. Stacking means taking a QB and a WR (for example) from the same team with hope that the QB throws a TD to the WR. You essentially double-dip on the same play. You score points based on:

Passing yards
Passing TD
Reception
Receiving yards
Receiving TD

All in one play. Imagine having Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill from a few years ago. Other than that, ignore bye weeks because they don't matter over the course of a season, and maybe be a bit more aggressive with players who have a higher ceiling.

Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Trade Cycles & QB Values

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Trade Value Cycle

The QB Conundrum

Dynasty Best Ball

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