Nothing helps us gain perspective (and make us feel great shame) about dynasty quite like a walk down memory lane. Now that we have some distance, I want to check in on some of the key skill players from the 2020, 2021, and 2022 drafts to see how they’re doing.

Let’s revisit the top rookie ADPs, what they’ve accomplished (or failed to accomplish) so far, and where their values currently stand.

Dynasty Values For the 2020, 2021 and 2022 Draft Classes

2020 Top Rookie ADPs

Historical ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator

1.01 - Clyde Edwards-Helaire - Current Dynasty Value N/A

CEH is the ultimate cautionary tale about drafting running backs with significant red flags. The 5-foot-7-inch LSU RB was drafted before Jonathan Taylor in most leagues, primarily because of his landing spot in Kansas City. Like Forrest Gump winning Best Picture over Pulp Fiction, it’s a decision that looks worse with every passing year. CEH never recorded a top-20 fantasy season and now resides on the Chiefs practice squad.

1.02 - Jonathan Taylor - Current Value RB4

If you drafted JT ahead of CEH, congrats on the ball knowing! Taylor is on his way to a top-five finish this season with Daniel “Please Stop Talking About That Time I Tripped Right Before the End Zone” Jones under center. At 26 years old, Taylor leads the NFL in rushing yards this season and has the second-most rushing yards per game of any running back since 2020. This man is as scheme-proof and QB-proof as you can get. Keep an eye out this offseason for any value dips that allow you to get the “aging RB discount.”

1.03 - Jerry Jeudy – Current Value WR43

It’s looking less and less likely that Jeudy’s fifth-year breakout—which notched him a WR20 finish last year—will continue. Given the confusing state of Cleveland’s quarterback room, I understand his value sitting so low. But with Cedric Tillman placed on IR and a QB change on the horizon, Jeudy’s a pretty low-risk acquisition with some decent upside. Not nearly as much upside as CeeDee Lamb or Justin Jefferson, who he was somehow ahead of in rookie ADP, but still …

1.04 - D’Andre Swift - Current Value RB33

Swift has been a fringe top-20 player his whole career, and there’s certainly a place for that on your roster. But at a certain point, we need to admit he’s reached his ceiling. Despite significant target shares, dramatic workload increases, and even a reunion with supposed offensive guru Ben Johnson, Swift is unlikely to ascend further. That said, his value is a bit low considering he’s only 26 years old.

1.05 - J.K. Dobbins - Current Value RB32

Sometimes, the only lesson to learn from a draft pick gone wrong is that injuries happen … and they suck. Dobbins missed more games than he played through the first five years of his career, though he looks healthy and revitalized under Sean Payton in Denver. Given his wild injury history and the rookie competition waiting in the wings, now might be the time to consider trading Dobbins.

Biggest ADP Misses: CEH (1.01), Cam Akers (1.07), Jalen Reagor (1.09)

Low ADP Hits: Michael Pittman (2.08)

2021 Top Rookie ADPs

1.01 - Najee Harris - Current Value RB72

What a difference a few months makes, huh? Before the NFL draft, Harris was sitting comfortably around RB25. Now? You’d be lucky to get a future 3rd round pick for him. Achilles injuries aren’t easy for running backs to bounce back from and Harris’ contract is up after this year. I wish him well, but he’s just a deep bench stash at this point.

1.02 - Kyle Pitts - Current Value TE11

Just when I thought I was out … he pulls me back in. After his record-chasing rookie season, Pitts drafters were sipping martinis and chortling on their yachts as they envisioned a full decade of elite tight end production. But after three straight seasons outside the top 10, his value crashed like his nickname was Crypto. Still, he’s young, absurdly athletic, and putting together a nice little season despite Michael Penix’s QB woes. At this value, I’m comfortable throwing a couple more chips in on him.

1.03 - Javonte Williams - Current Value RB25

Forget Disneyland, the Javonte Williams experience is the only rollercoaster all you freaky little thrillseekers need. Once considered a top-three running back—not just in rookie drafts but in dynasty startups—his disastrous 2022 knee injury left us wondering if he’d ever again achieve his potential. Welp, don’t look now, but he’s RB6 in redraft and looking like his rookie self. I don’t think it’s a mirage, either. I’m sending offers.

1.04 - Ja’Marr Chase - Current Value WR1

Consider this a PSA: DO NOT PANIC TRADE JA’MARR CHASE (re-read that as many times as you need to). Though I’m out on Joe Burrow as an elite dynasty QB, I’m not angling to dethrone his top receiver. However, if you smell any fear on the Chase manager in your league, now would be a good time to pounce.

1.08 - DeVonta Smith - Current Value WR25

Falling behind a slew of QBs in the 2021 rookie draft, Smith has been an exciting but unreliable asset in dynasty, especially after A.J. Brown rode into town. It’s highly unlikely he gets the opportunity to be a primary receiver again, but if you’re comfortable riding the weekly waves, some managers might be antsy to unload him.

Biggest ADP Misses: Trey Sermon (1.10), Terrace Marshall (2.02)

Low ADP Hits: Amon-Ra St. Brown (2.06), Chuba Hubbard (2.10), Nico Collins (3.02)

2022 Top Rookie ADPs

1.01 - Breece Hall - Current Value RB15

Hall is a good example of why I view running backs through a two-to-three-year window in dynasty. This is about the lowest dynasty value he’s ever had, and yet, I’d still rather go after “old” backs at a lower price than absorb the risk of Hall moving to a crowded timeshare next season. 

1.02 - Drake London - Current Value WR10

On the flip side, London proved that top-tier receivers are worth waiting for. Though his fantasy production was meager, he ranked fourth in Targets Per Route Run among qualified WRs his rookie season. It just took time for him to get competent QB play, which resulted in a third-year breakout and WR5 finish. The best part? He’s still only 24 years old. If managers are extending their Penix panic toward London, now is the time to send trade offers.

1.03 - Kenneth Walker III - Current Value RB16

I’d like to say some comforting words to Kenneth Walker managers, but for some reason, my keyboard will only let me type “sorry about Zach Charbonnet, y’all.” Because in games where both are active, they completely gobble up each other’s fantasy ceilings. Barring injury, I don’t see a way out of this timeshare. That makes Walker someone to avoid and Charbonnet the much better value.

1.04 - Treylon Burks - Current Value WR163

Hey, remember when the Titans thought they could simply replace A.J. Brown with Treylon Burks? Good times. To be fair, Burks racked up quite a few injuries in the last few years, but unlike J.K. Dobbins, he’s unlikely to see a redemption arc.

1.05 - Jameson Williams - Current Value WR21

After an injury-shortened rookie season, multiple suspensions, and a stint inside Dan Campbell’s doghouse, Jameson Williams finally became the high-flying receiver drafters dreamed he could be. But … it’s basically just a sequel to DeVonta Smith, isn’t it? (DeVonta Smith 2: Honolulu Blue, if you will.) Williams is still a fine trade candidate, just don’t expect consistent production any time soon.

Biggest ADP Misses: Treylon Burks (1.04), Skyy Moore (1.08), Christian Watson (1.10), Jahan Dotson (1.12)

Low ADP Hits: Trey McBride (2.05), Khalil Shakir (3.04)

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