Chase Brown

• Rookie Draft Ranking: 28th (RB10)
• RB Rookie Super Model Percentile: 56th
• Underdog ADP: 168.0
• Landing Spot: Cincinnati Bengals (163rd overall)

Fantasy Outlook

Chase Brown shared the Illini backfield throughout most of his college career and entered the draft as a 23-year-old prospect. And it's not like his metrics paint a better picture.

He was below the two-year class average in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.25) and yards after contact per attempt (2.87). Brown was competent but not efficient as a receiver, so it was fair to wonder how he'd become fantasy relevant before the draft.

And then the Bengals drafted him. 

Brown’s final-season stats as an explosive runner and pass blocker hint at a profile similar to the Bengals’ former backup, Samaje Perine. And it's well noted that Perine began to eat into Mixon’s workload late last season.

Chris Evans never saw more than five snaps in a single game and remained inactive through the playoffs. Brown should be able to bypass the former sixth-rounder and slide in as the complement to Mixon on a potent Bengals’ offense in ’23.

Way-too-early 2023 redraft rank: Low-end RB5

Summary

Chase Brown is a fifth-year senior running back who tallied 1643 rushing yards and 10 rushing TDs in his final year at Illinois. He also added 27 receptions, 240 receiving yards, and 3 receiving TDs. 

A track star in high school, Brown transferred out of Western Michigan after 2018 and joined the Fighting Illini, which is where his career really started to take shape. 

Once given the lead role at Illinois, Brown was impressive, averaging 156 total yards per game in his final season. He had 11 games with 100+ yards rushing, setting a team record for Illinois, and had 27 catches on the year, which more than doubled his career amount in that category to date. 

One of the older RBs in the draft, Brown will be 23 when the new NFL season starts, but that shouldn’t worry teams much given the low usage in his first three seasons of college eligibility. 

Pros 

Big-time athleticism and big-time plays 

There is a lot to like about Chase Brown from an athletic perspective. At the combine, he posted a 4.43 40m time, an elite vertical, and a surprising 25 on the bench, which has him comparing well with some of the biggest combine studs of past years. 

In 2022, Brown showcased that athleticism on the regular. He was one of the leaders in explosive runs (10 yards or more) and missed tackles, and was a menace for opposing defenses once he got into the second level. 

While he has somewhat of a smaller frame, Brown took 356 touches in 2022 and ended the season third in yards from scrimmage, suggesting there is some bell-cow potential for him in the pros. 

Untapped versatility

Brown’s career numbers in the passing game don’t jump off the page, but he seems like a victim of circumstance in that regard. He only played in 18 games between 2020-2021 and was also stuck in an offense that used him mainly on simple swing routes or screens. 

From a scouting perspective, Brown’s soft hands and route running have been noticed. Additionally, Brown seems to have good vision in the passing game as evidenced by his career 9.3 yards per catch mark at Illinois, which again was achieved from mostly low aDOT and behind the line of scrimmage targets. 

Brown has the makings of a player who could take a big step up as a pass catcher in the pros and whose burst, once in space, will make him a dangerous passing game threat. 

Cons 

May lose goal line and short-yardage snaps

Likely the biggest knock on Brown was his lack of short-yardage burst. Despite 350+ touches in his final year of college, he only managed 10 TDs, which was six less than the other four college RBs who had 300+ carries in 2022. 

Brown’s smaller frame makes him less than ideal as a short-yardage option in the NFL, and there is a high likelihood that teams will try to pair him with a bigger-bodied RB to spare him from the tough yards inside the five-yard line—and thus lower his overall TD upside for fantasy. 

In this regard, Brown’s fantasy prospects do seem heavily linked to his ability to develop as a pass catcher. He’ll likely need a team who sees his potential in that area and are willing to develop him as their third-down and change-of-pace weapon. 

Fantasy Impact

The biggest concern with Brown is that teams are unlikely to view him as a true three-down workhorse. If he has to compete with similar RBs for passing-down snaps, then he could be given the cold shoulder if he doesn’t showcase well in preseason. 

Brown is such a plus athlete that this scenario actually seems highly unlikely. Teams love speed, and as we’ve seen with players Brown compares well to—Jerrick McKinnon or Austin Ekeler—these kinds of RBs tend to have great longevity and carve out roles for themselves, one way or another. Look for Brown to eventually do the same. 

There are plenty of solid landing spots for him, but Arizona, Denver, Philly, and Chicago are all places where he could potentially make an impact from the get-go. If he lands on one of these teams, you can start pushing him up redraft boards and potentially even make him a late-round target in Underdog’s best ball drafts. 

From a dynasty perceptive, Brown has enough long-term starter potential that he should be a player you’re looking to get to in front of the crowd, once the top few RBs are off the board. 

You can get in front of the crowd and start drafting Brown TODAY on Underdog Fantasy. Sign up below to get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 and get started today!