Dynasty Rookie Profile: Rashee Rice

Rashee Rice

Rookie Draft Ranking: 23rd (WR10)
WR Rookie Model Percentile: 67th
Underdog ADP: 161.9
Landing Spot: Kansas City Chiefs (55th overall)

Fantasy Outlook

You'd think having second-round draft capital in the Chiefs' offense would equate to fantasy value. However, Kansas City drafted Skyy Moore 54th overall last season, and he earned a whopping 33 targets.

Rice earned targets all over the field but ran more routes from the outside, with a high percentage of nine routes in his repertoire. And, unfortunately, Patrick Mahomes' rate of deep throws has decreased each year. Moore, Travis Kelce, Kadarius Toney, and Richie James get to compete for the interior looks, with Rice (literally) on the outside looking in on the action. Outside of a splash play or two, Rice will struggle for fantasy relevance with so many other options available to Mahomes.

Way-too-early 2023 redraft rank: Low-end WR5

Summary

You'd find a lot to like if you just looked at Rashee Rice’s final-season stats. The SMU receiver notched the second-most targets and yards in the FBS in 2022. And even if the ball wasn’t in his hands or coming his way, Rice could still make his presence felt. But one season doesn’t give us the full picture.

Despite a sophomore-season breakout, Rice failed to command more looks in his junior season. He needed a strong senior year just to break into the Day 2 conversation. Combined with a modest athletic profile, Rice has the makings of a productive WR3 but needs the right draft capital and landing spot to get on our fantasy radars.

Pros

Can Do It All

We don’t have any clear-cut alphas in this class, as no one fits the Garrett Wilson or Ja’Marr Chase archetype. And that’s OK! They’ll just need specialized roles on their new teams because they notched high snap rates from the perimeter, or their size limits them to the slot. But Rice doesn’t have that constraint.

Targets per route run by alignment

Taken over a two-year sample from PFF, Rice is one of four prospects with an above-average target per route run (TPRR) rate from the slot and out wide. He commanded targets regardless of alignment. Plus, he was efficient in both positions.

Rice posted top-10 yards per route run (YPRR) marks within his class at each station. His 2.61 YPRR from the perimeter (10th) and 2.67 YPRR from the slot (6th) highlight his talent to contribute from Day 1. A team with an established veteran (e.g. Bills, Chargers, etc.) would speed up his transition into the NFL and unlock the potential he displayed in college.

Cons

Struggled to Earn Looks

The ability to demand volume is a trait for any high-end WR. But it becomes especially important for small-school receivers due to relative competition. I mentioned Dawson Knox playing with A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, and Elijah Moore as a reason for Knox’s paltry input to the Ole Miss offense. Rice didn’t have that problem at SMU.

Rice played alongside Danny Gray for the 2020 and 2021 seasons before Gray declared for the draft and drew a Day 2 selection from San Francisco. Gray’s first year was Rice’s breakout campaign as a sophomore. Coincidentally, in ’21, Rice took a step back as the offense's focal point.

Target share by year

Gray’s speed and after-the-catch talent forced a 1A/1B conversation within the SMU pecking order. Rice needed Gray and Reggie Roberson to turn pro so Rice could shine in ’22. The former Mustang won’t find a similar situation in the NFL, creating some risk for him to remain relevant to real and fantasy rosters.

Fantasy Impact

Without question, Rice can develop into a reliable pass-catching option for any team. He can line up anywhere on the field and gain enough separation using his burst to command opportunities. Rice also showed a willingness as a downfield blocker to spring his teammates for long scores. All of the raw traits are there.

But Rice will be 23 by the time he takes his first snap in the NFL. He couldn’t sustain a dominant workload when faced with competition and lacks much of the nuance to the position, which may further limit his on-field reps.

Day 2 draft capital is critical to his fantasy value. Without it, his development (like his place on the depth chart) will fall behind his teammates, making him an avoid in fantasy formats.

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