With the Super Bowl behind us, it's time to turn our attention to the NFL Draft and the incoming 2023 rookie class. Jonathan Fuller breaks down the pros and cons of Zach Charbonnet as a dynasty prospect and what to expect from him in fantasy.

Zach Charbonnet

• Rookie Draft ADP: 7
• Underdog ADP: 101.4
• Rookie RB Super Model: 80th percentile
• Landing Spot: Seattle Seahawks (52nd overall)

Fantasy Outlook

It's no secret that Pete Carroll wants to run the football so maybe it shouldn't have felt so surprising when the Seahawks continued their trend of spending significant draft capital at the running back position by selecting Charbonnet in the second round.

This was a disappointing result for the value of both Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker III. Although the Seahawks offense is looking extremely potent for real football, we have to assume the backfield will be a full blown committee for fantasy purposes. 

As long as Walker and Charbonnet are healthy this will limit their ceilings, but both players have workhorse upside if the other gets injured.

In addition to that contingent value, Charbonnet will have reasonable weekly upside if he can secure the primary passing downs role. He profiles as a much better pass catcher than Walker, but will need to hold off competition from the likes of DeeJay Dallas.

Despite the less-than-ideal landing spot, there are still multiple paths to Charbonnet delivering solid fantasy value. The projected split backfield should keep his cost down in fantasy drafts, making him a nice value relative to his upside. 

Way-too-early 2023 redraft value: Upside RB 3/4

Summary

Zach Charbonnet had an extremely productive college career, but he also dealt with his fair share of adversity. As a true freshman at Michigan, he logged 149 carries for 726 yards and 11 TDs. That season, Charbonnet was named the team’s Offensive Rookie of the Year and received an honorable mention at the All-Big Ten honors.

Despite such a strong start to his collegiate career in Ann Arbor, Charbonnet virtually disappeared in his sophomore season, receiving just 19 total carries in five games (Michigan only played a six-game regular season in 2020 due to COVID).

Charbonnet then transferred to UCLA, where he went on to absolutely dominate the Pac-12 during his junior and senior seasons:

While I would've liked to see him enter the NFL after his junior year, Charbonnet did end up helping his draft stock with a monster campaign in 2022 as a senior. He was second-team All-American and first-team All-Pac-12, and Charbonnet had the second-highest PFF rushing grade among all RBs with at least 100 carries.

The list of accolades goes on, but of course we know that college production doesn’t necessarily translate to NFL or fantasy production. It’s time to take a closer look at the strengths and weaknesses of Charbonnet’s game to get a better idea of whether he can succeed at the next level.

Pros

At 6’0 and 215 lbs., Charbonnet has prototypical size to handle the physical demands of being a lead back in the NFL. He runs with power and good contact balance, allowing him to shed tackles and churn out extra yards.

And while Charbonnet is unlikely to ever turn into an elite receiving back, he's an above-average pass-catcher who could reach 30 to 40 receptions per year on screens and routes out of the backfield. He's also a good pass-protector, so teams can feel comfortable leaving him on the field in passing situations.

The combination of being a powerful runner who can also catch passes should allow Charbonnet to earn plenty of high-value touches, which in turn could translate into fantasy points. As long as he lands on a team where he isn’t stuck behind an established veteran, Charbonnet can offer a high floor in both dynasty and redraft formats.

As with all RBs, draft capital will be very important and will serve as an early signal of what type of role he will have with his new team. A lot remains up in the air, but the early buzz around Charbonnet seems positive, and Day 2 draft capital would be very encouraging for his projected early-career usage.

Nov 12, 2022; Pasadena, California, USA; UCLA Bruins running back Zach Charbonnet (24) carries the ball just into the end zone for a touchdown in the second half against the Arizona Wildcats at the Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Cons

Although Charbonnet is a good athlete for a RB of his size, he doesn’t possess the elite speed or quickness needed to reach that top tier at the pro level. RBs in that elite tier can consistently create yardage and are a threat to take it to the house on any given play.

Charbonnet's skills place him a notch below that top tier, as he will be more reliant on the quality of blocking in front of him. His long speed is also good, not great, so he will be less of a home-run threat in the NFL than he was in college.

These are realities that most RBs have to deal with, though, so I don’t want to oversell his limitations.

Charbonnet should be able to more than hold his own on an NFL field, but he's definitely a very different prospect from some of the smaller, more explosive receiving backs in this class, like Jahmyr Gibbs or Devon Achane. If you're looking for a flashy playmaker, Charbonnet isn’t your guy, and there are plenty of prospects in this class you will like more.

Finally, he's also an older prospect, which is a mark against his profile in dynasty leagues. At 22 years old, age isn’t a major concern, but Charbonnet is more than a year older than several of the other top RB prospects in the 2023 rookie class.

Currently sitting as the RB31 on Underdog Fantasy, Charbonnet could still offer some draft-day value depending on what team drafts him. If you want to get ahead of the curve, you can get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 by signing up for Underdog Fantasy with the offer below.

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Fantasy Impact

Most rankings will likely have Charbonnet somewhere between the No. 2 RB and the No. 4 RB in this class, and where he's ranked for each dynasty GM will come down to preference for floor vs. ceiling. There are other rookie RBs this year who have a much higher ceiling in their range of outcomes, but they might also have a lower floor.

Assuming that Charbonnet is selected on Day 2 of the NFL Draft, he should be a relatively safe bet in fantasy. I really like him as a pick for RB-needy dynasty teams in the back half of the first round of rookie drafts.

Charbonnet is a reliable, durable, and well-rounded RB prospect, which should allow him to deliver multiple seasons of solid but unspectacular fantasy production.

The X factor for Charbonnet will be whether he lands in a good offense where he can get goal-line carries. Such a scenario would give him the best path to significant fantasy upside, as he could score double-digit TDs even as a rookie.