Fantasy Football Dynasty Stock Watch. Risers and Fallers Entering August.

Training camps are officially underway! Get ready for peak “best shape of his life” season and all the hype videos you can handle.

Below, I analyze a few players whose stock has increased or decreased as we enter August and explain what dynasty managers should do to stay ahead of the curve.

Dynasty Stock Up

Antonio Gibson

Antonio Gibson has quickly become one of my most-written-about players this offseason.

Dare I say he’s a leading “my guy” candidate? Perhaps.

The fact remains, his price (in both redraft and dynasty) does not reflect what I think he can bring to both the NFL field and, more importantly, fantasy football rosters.

Once a WR, the converted tailback enters his fourth season after finishing as a top-13 option twice to begin his career. We know the talent and skill set are there, but the missing piece (opportunity) might finally fall into place this season.

First, the Commanders released J.D. McKissic, one of the premier pass-catching RBs of the last few years. Ian Hartitz noted, “Overall, Commanders RBs ranked second in expected PPR points per game during the 2020 to 2022 seasons.”

There could be even MORE opportunity for Gibson to contribute in the passing game. He’s averaged north of 51 targets per year since entering the league. His ceiling is immense.

Fellow RB Brian Robinson is the other key cog of the backfield, and his dynasty price is similar to Gibson’s. However, Robinson was an older prospect coming out of college and was one of the least efficient rushers in 2022.

PFF rushing grade: 81.0 (16th among 41 qualified RBs)
Yards per carry: 3.9 (33rd)
Yards after contact per carry: 2.7 (35th)
Missed tackles forced per carry: 15.6% (27th)

He might be an early-down bruiser but isn’t someone I want to invest in in dynasty formats.

Finally, the Commanders added former Chiefs OC Eric Bieniemy to their staff this offseason, and the positive coach-speak on Gibson is already starting.

Commanders HC Ron Rivera said he would like to get Gibson more touches in 2023, and Gibson recently stated he plans on being used in the 3rd-down back, pass-catching role.

With a dynasty ADP of RB32, which is only two spots higher than it was a month ago, Gibson provides the perfect blend of age (25), price, talent, and opportunity that dynasty managers should covet.

AJ Dillon

The first season post-Aaron Rodgers will be a fascinating storyline this fall. Just how good is Jordan Love? We’re about to find out.

The backfield, however, remains stable.

The duo of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon are likely to receive as much work as they can manage. While Jones has been more fantasy-relevant, Dillon is three years younger and is someone dynasty managers need to target.

Green Bay Packers running back AJ Dillon (28) high-five fans after their 31-28 overtime win against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, Nov. 13, 2022 at Lambeau Field in Green Bay. Packers Cowboys Packers14 4139

In his Green Bay Packers Team Preview, Ian Hartitz noted:

Jones has stayed healthy for the heavy majority of his career, but the Packers have been willing to give Dillon a near every-down role on the four occasions that their nominal starting RB has been limited to 25 or fewer snaps:

Week 11, 2021: 11-53-0 rushing, 6-44-0 receiving, 75% snaps
Week 13, 2022: 18-93-1 rushing, 3-26-0 receiving, 68% snaps
Week 16, 2022: 11-36-1 rushing, 2-12-0 receiving, 58% snaps
Week 17, 2022: 12-41-1 rushing, 0-0-0 receiving, 46% snaps

We never hope for injuries, but it’s worth recognizing the potential for a player like Dillon to become a league-winner should something befall Jones.

In 2022, Jones topped Dillon in both rush attempts (213 vs. 186) and targets (72 vs. 43). This paints the picture as more of a 1A/1B than a true primary and secondary option.

Without Rodgers manning the helm, Hartitz also suggested that “Dillon should still see double-digit touches far more weeks than not.”

The Packers are well-coached and still have playmakers. Their offensive output is all but guaranteed to come down, but the scoring opportunities will still be there.

Dillon sports a dynasty ADP of RB29 (three spots ahead of Gibson). That’s prime value for a player of his caliber with a clear path to consistent volume.

Cam Akers

The masses will tell you to sell RBs and buy WRs in dynasty formats. It makes sense in a vacuum since WRs have longer shelf lives than their RB counterparts. However, as the community gets smarter, we sometimes have to buck the trend to find that edge.

Let’s upgrade a third RB: Cam Akers.

The Rams’ fall from grace following their Super Bowl victory is well-documented. But the band is back together for another year as Sean McVay, Matthew Stafford, and Cooper Kupp look to lead the team back to the promised land.

Aside from the aforementioned Breakfast Duo, Akers represents incredible value and intriguing upside. He has the desired combination of both talent and opportunity.

Starting with talent, Akers finished 2022 on the hottest of hot streaks. From Weeks 13-18 (six games), his per-game averages were elite.

18 PPR
17.3 rushing attempts
85.3 rushing yards
1 TD

He also topped 100 rushing yards in his final three games. Maybe it’s recency bias. Maybe it’s legit. I’m willing to take the gamble.

Next, the opportunity is there for a massive workload. The backfield behind Akers is a barren wasteland. The sudden retirement of Sony Michel only solidifies Akers’s status as the primary ball carrier.

Akers has a dynasty ADP of RB25, which is down a few spots from last month. Like the previously mentioned RBs, that’s a sweet price point for a tailback with the unique combinations we want when targeting RBs in dynasty formats.

Dynasty Stock Down

Calvin Ridley

This one hurts a bit since I’ve been a big fan since his college days. However, the totality of the situation surrounding Calvin Ridley lands him as someone to downgrade in dynasty.

He’s 28 years old (not a death warrant) but hasn’t seen the field since Week 7 of 2021. His comeback story is incredible so this has nothing to do with the man—just his price.

Ridley’s breakout season in 2020 feels like a lifetime ago, but fantasy managers are all in on him as this season grows closer. His Underdog ADP sits at WR16. That’s aggressive.

Christian Kirk, who infamously rocked the market for WR contracts, balled out last season. Ian Hartitz highlighted just how good Kirk was:

Displaying a mix of pristine route-running ability and after-the-catch goodness, Kirk posted some pretty solid, efficient numbers last season:

PFF receiving grade: 76.1 (28th)
Yards per route run: 1.79 (tied for 29th)
Yards after the catch per reception: 4.6 (28th)
Targets per route run: 19.8% (37th)

Ridley is undoubtedly more talented in a vacuum, but Kirk is no slouch. Heck, even Zay Jones finished with 121 targets last season. It’s no lock that Ridley runs away with the WR1 job.

Jul 26, 2023; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Calvin Ridley (0) participates in training camp at Miller Electric Performance Center. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

By the time next year rolls around, Ridley will be pushing 30 years old and is all but assured to decline in value regardless of how this season goes. His dynasty ADP sits at WR27, which is five spots higher than it was a month ago.

Unless you NEED him to help you push for a title this year, Ridley feels like an easy downgrade in dynasty formats while his perceived value will never be higher.

On the flip side, if you want to take a one-year flier on Ridley, you can do so on Underdog Fantasy. Simply sign up below to claim a 100% deposit match of up to $100 and start drafting today!

Terry McLaurin

If pegging Ridley as a dynasty downgrade didn’t ruffle enough feathers, this one definitely should. Don’t hate the player, don’t hate the player, don’t hate the player.

Sorry, Terry McLaurin.

At this stage of his career, we know who he is. For four years, McLaurin has averaged:

129 targets
81 receptions
1,155 receiving yards
6 TDs

Simply put, he’s a WR2 with upside.

Like DJ Moore, we’ll look back on McLaurin’s career and wish his prime years were spent with better QBs. Here are the signal callers who have targeted McLaurin at least 40 times:

Case Keenum (41 targets)
Carson Wentz (47)
Alex Smith (52)
Dwayne Haskins (98)
Taylor Heinicke (196)

Not a great list.

McLaurin will now have to contend with Sam Howell and/or Jacoby Brissett this season and possibly someone new next season. I’m betting it’ll be some time before this QB room has stability.

Thankfully for dynasty managers who may be looking to pivot, McLaurin is still carrying a strong ADP of WR24. Similar to Ridley, regardless of how this season goes, his age (29 next season) will start to force his ADP down. Now might be a decent time to cash out and recoup some draft capital before the wheels inevitably start to fall off.

Dameon Pierce

As a fourth-round rookie, Dameon Pierce was a pleasant surprise during an otherwise forgettable 2022 season for the Houston Texans. He received double-digit carries in 12 of 13 games (he missed the final four weeks) and hauled in 30 of 39 targets.

What really stood out about Pierce was his workload.

Among RBs, Pierce finished No. 4 in percentage of team rushing attempts (76%) and No. 4 in percentage of total team opportunities (37%). That put him in the Derrick Henry/Josh Jacobs/Jonathan Taylor tier of workhorse tailbacks.

The Texans brought over Devin Singletary on a one-year deal to bolster the backfield. In his four-year career, Singletary has never been below 150 rushing attempts, 680 rushing yards, and 40 targets. New head coach DeMeco Ryans & Co. are going to involve both players, which could cap the ceiling of both.

Pierce’s dynasty ADP sits at RB19, which is fine for a 23-year-old coming off a stellar season. However, pivoting off of him is a bet I’m willing to make. He likely won’t garner the same share of the backfield opportunity moving forward, and his Day 3 draft capital makes him a prime dynasty downgrade.