It felt so great to have a full slate of NFL football back in our lives on Sunday. Of course, not everything went the way we would have hoped, but that's the reality of playing fantasy football. 

Now that we finally have game data to work with, I'm going back to focusing on weekly regression candidates based on which players are running too hot and too cold for their underlying usage. As always, I'll be leaning heavily on our Utilization Report data and can't recommend highly enough to check out the full suite of tools we have to help take your game to the next level.

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Before I get into the players I want to highlight as positive and negative regression candidates, there is a macro regression trend that I want to discuss first. NFL offenses were particularly run heavy in Week 1, which led to disappointing performances for a number of highly drafted pass catchers. 

Over the last two seasons, NFL offenses have averaged 218 passing yards and 1.4 passing TDs per game. In Week 1, those numbers were 188 passing yards and 1.1 passing TDs. Assuming teams regress to those recent averages (which are already the lowest since 2009) we're looking at an additional 960 passing yards and 10 passing TDs to go around on an average week when all 32 teams are playing. What I'm trying to say is that there are better days ahead for passing attacks around the league. This is particularly important at the TE position, where we saw basically all of the highest-drafted options dud. 

As we zoom out and consider these macro trends the main takeaway I have is to not overreact to the importance of RB production early in the season. Yes, it's great to have an RB getting plenty of touches right now, but I don't want to pay up for that volume now by trading low on a stud WR to buy high on a volume-dependent RB. 

Positive Regression

Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals

I drafted Trey McBride in three of my four redraft leagues this year, so I am definitely biased, but his usage in Week 1 was very encouraging despite the lack of fantasy points. He ran a lot of routes and drew 9 targets, which was the most on the team. We've seen enough in his first two seasons to say that if he continues to see a similar amount of volume he's a strong candidate to be the TE1 for this season.

The biggest question mark in McBride's profile is how many opportunities he will get to score TDs. The Cardinals seem likely to lean on James Conner around the goal line, so I think it is unlikely we see a huge TD year for McBride, but he should comfortably get to the 6-8 TD range if he stays healthy and maintains a similar level of usage throughout the season. 

Year 3 is when TEs often break out so I like betting on the idea that we haven't seen the full upside of what he can be as a primary weapon in this Arizona offense. I already have McBride on most of my rosters, but if I didn't he would be one of my top trade targets after Week 1.

Keenan Allen, Chicago Bears

It was definitely an underwhelming debut for Caleb Williams and the Chicago offense in Week 1, but it's way too early to panic about the rookie QB. After throwing for just 93 yards in his opening game, Williams could be a positive regression candidate himself, but I'm more interested in his pass catchers. One of the more notable developments for me was the fact that Keenan Allen led the team in targets, got the only end-zone target, and had the highest aDOT of the top three receivers.

This level of usage is hugely encouraging for Allen considering the Bears had one of the more difficult-to-project WR rooms when it came to target share. I don't expect Allen to lead the team in targets every week, but seeing that Williams was looking his way often is a great sign for his ability to deliver on where he was drafted. In fact, Keenan's role was so strong in Week 1 that he checked in as the WR12 in PFF's Expected Points model. He may not have delivered on that right out of the gate, but this makes me much more confident that we will see high-end fantasy production from him throughout this season. 

The other important note from Week 1 was that rookie WR Rome Odunze suffered an MCL sprain and is considered week-to-week. While I hate seeing a talented young player get banged up early in the season, it does give Keenan more of a buffer against losing routes and targets to the rookie. Keep in mind, Keenan has not practiced all week with a heel injury of his own. While a veteran could push through without practicing, it does not bode well for his availability on Sunday. However, missed practice time is more detrimental for a rookie than it would be for a vet over the course of the season. Now we just need Caleb Williams to show why he was such a highly regarded prospect and it should be wheels up for Chicago's WR room. 

Negative Regression

Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers

The second-year WR for Green Bay was electric in Week 1, putting up the most fantasy points of any WR thanks to two long scoring plays. Even in a normal scenario, Jayden Reed would be a negative regression candidate because averaging 34 yards per touch and 2 TDs per game just isn't sustainable.

Unfortunately, this isn't a normal scenario because Packers QB Jordan Love suffered a knee injury in their season opener. Thankfully, he avoided the worst-case scenario and the Packers don't plan to place him on IR, which bodes well for him returning to the lineup sooner rather than later. However, even when Love does return he will almost certainly be less than 100% healthy, which could limit the offense or cause them to lean more on the rushing attack. Any of those scenarios would be bad for Reed and the other Packers pass catchers.

For what it's worth, I actually think Reed is best positioned among Packers WRs to retain usable fantasy production while Love is out or limited because Reed can make things happen on designed touches and in the running game. That being said, it is still important to temper expectations for what he will produce over the next 3-to-6 weeks while we wait for Love to return to full strength. Reed went late enough in drafts that you should have viable alternatives to start over him until we see how this Green Bay offense looks.

Alec Pierce, Indianapolis Colts

It should be no surprise that the player who averaged 41.7 yards per reception in Week 1 is on the negative regression list. Alec Pierce was not considered a highly relevant fantasy asset and probably went undrafted in most leagues. Despite his Week 1 explosion he isn't a waiver wire priority for me because there are several factors working against him. 

First, he only saw the third most targets on the team and he isn't going to be this efficient most weeks. Being the third option in a low passing-volume offense won't produce many fantasy points in the majority of games.

Second, I'm not convinced he will even remain the third option for long. When Josh Downs returns from injury I'm pretty confident he will run ahead of Pierce, which will only further limit his routes and targets. Pierce has been quite inefficient throughout his career so far, posting just 1.24 and 0.85 yards per route run in his first two seasons, which strongly suggests he is not a difference maker on an NFL field. I like both Downs and rookie Adonai Mitchell more as players—and I think the Colts do, too—so it is difficult for me to see how Pierce carves out enough of a role to ever be a player you want on your bench, much less in your starting lineup.

According to the PFF Expected Points model, Pierce had only 5.2 expected half PPR points, which ranked 67th among WRs. If that is the role he has in a game where the Colts trailed and were without Downs, I hate to think where things could go from here. I'm not even looking his way on waivers this week, but at least he'll always be able to say he was on the receiving end of one of the best throws of the season. 

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