Jermaine Burton Scouting Report and Fantasy Football Outlook
Chris Allen breaks down Jermaine Burton as a fantasy football prospect heading into the 2024 NFL Draft, covering his pros, cons, and more.
Jermaine Burton Scouting Report
- Underdog ADP: 190.3 overall (WR80), rookie WR15
- WR Rookie Super Model: 47th percentile
Typecasting a player based on their primary usage can limit our understanding of his potential. For example, when some assume that smaller WRs can only have slot roles, a guy like Tank Dell can force us to re-evaluate our process. So when I see clips of Jermaine Burton, I’m hesitant to put him only in that bucket.
Admittedly, the “boundary, deep-threat” archetype was my knee-jerk reaction for Burton, and his athletic profile lent even more credence to the idea.
However, it's worth noting that Burton also managed to average over 2.0 yards per route run (YPRR) throughout his final three years in college. Plus, in his first year at Alabama, Burton's slot rate spiked to 39.3%.
And while he has some long speed, Burton's explosive metrics point to more route-running skills than descriptors like “perimeter burner” or “boom-or-bust” would allow. With that said, let’s dig into the Crimson Tide’s No. 1 WR to get a better idea of his game and how it will translate to the NFL.
Pros and Cons of Jermaine Burton
Pros
High-end deep threat
Actually, let’s lean into the bit first. I’ll roll with the idea that Burton is nothing but a home-run hitter for just a second. I mean, he did make some of those big plays in his three years at Georgia.
But, as I usually say, the play above was just one play. Many WRs can occasionally win on a deep route. But if Burton is a constant deep threat, then his career numbers would back that up. And coincidentally, they do to an extent.
Over half (51.4%) of Burton’s receiving yards came on pass attempts of 20 yards or more, which is the highest mark for any WR in this 2024 rookie class. At the same time, his average Pro Football Focus (PFF) grade on those routes is sixth-best amongst his peers.
So when Burton was targeted deep, he was able to create explosive plays downfield. His ability to gain separation and capitalize on those deep targets was among the best in the 2024 WR class, though it's not Burton's only ability.
Versatile route-runner
So, Burton is a burner. His athletic measurables indicate it, and the tape confirms this notion. But of course, we’d like to see a more diverse skill set to consider him a viable fantasy asset.
His surface-level stats (e.g., high average depth of target (aDOT), low slot snap rate) obscure his other skills, but the film puts them on display.
In a single rep, Burton demonstrated in the clip above that he can execute quick breaks at the route stem to create separation. The defender, one of the better CB prospects in this class, bit on the inside motion only to have to redirect and make the tackle after the fact.
Burton conducted a similar technique against Utah State with similar success.
Here, Burton took a jab step inside to set up the outside break. And again, the result was the same. Plus, we got some dancing from the shifty WR to pick up extra yards as well.
Clearly, Burton can work against coverage on shorter route concepts. Meanwhile, his aDOT skews our perception. However, by isolating his target shares on a per-depth basis, Burton’s utility as an intermediate option becomes clearer.
- Deep: 29.9% target rate, 94.6 PFF grade
- Intermediate: 37.7% target rate, 93.2 PFF grade
There are two takeaways here. First, despite having created more yards on deep targets, Stetson Bennett and Jalen Milroe each targeted Burton more in the 10 to 19 yard range.
Second, he was similarly efficient on those intermediate looks, which suggests that Burton can be more than just a deep threat at the pro level unlike what his highlight reel might suggest.
Cons
Minimal YAC
Here's a great catch below by Burton. However, instantly having to fight off (or fight through) DBs was a common occurrence in Burton’s film.
For downfield targets, variance in YAC makes sense. I’m using two extremes, but in this context, WRs are either wide-open because they’ve flown past the defense or in a contested situation with the defender at their hip. However, intermediate routes require a different set of tools.
You’d think that Burton could use his speed or burst to “out-athlete” short-range coverage for longer gains or that he could build on his footwork for similar results. However, Burton didn't consistently do either of these things, which left him near the bottom of the class in terms of creating YAC. 
That said, his aDOT skewed that metric, and being able to weave through traffic will be an area of development for Burton at the NFL level. Burton may need time to work on how he sets up defenders to progress in this area, which could limit his playing time and targets as a rookie.
Fantasy Football Outlook for Jermaine Burton
Overall, Burton is an ideal utility player. His size allows him to operate as the Z receiver in two-WR sets, but he can also move to the interior in 11-personnel packages.
And as his athletic testing suggests, Burton is a walking (well, running) explosive play. Coaches can deploy him from a perimeter or interior alignment, and Georgia even got him involved as a runner at times.
Ultimately, Burton’s biggest concerns lie off the field. Teams have raised questions about his altercation with a fan.
Additionally, Burton’s college transfer wasn’t the first time the WR switched programs. In total, he’s played for six schools in eight years, which heavily contributes to his current mock draft value in the Day 2 range. 
In other words, he has quite a bit of work to do to repair his off-field image. Still, if he can stay out of trouble and on the field, Burton could be a surprise fantasy producer even in this deep WR draft class.
Premium
Get $25 Guillotine League Credits When You Join FL+
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Nunc tinciedunt, ex sit amet cursus gravida, dui mauris vulputate felis.
