NFL Rookie Super Model Tiers: WRs

With the NFL Draft quickly approaching, we are launching our Fantasy Life Rookie Super Model!

Our goal is to identify the top rookie prospects based on data points that tie to fantasy production in the NFL. We tested several advanced data metrics to see how they correlated with fantasy points and integrated the top options into our model.

While this limits our college data set to prospects since 2017, our model is also rooted in the well-established metrics identified by the dynasty community that date further back.

Of course, this combination doesn’t make our model perfect (no model is perfect), but we think it does make it pretty super, and we can’t wait to watch it grow as we gather more data.

Data and metrics utilized:

Projected draft capital (NFL Mock Draft Database and Grinding the Mocks)
Career and best-season dominator rating
Receiving yards per team pass attempt (YPTPA)
Career yards per route run (YPRR)
Rookie season age (at the start of the 2023 season)
Career explosive rate per target (15-plus yard reception)

Projected draft capital remains king and is the primary driver for my first pass at rookie rankings.

The career dominator rating adds a player's career yardage share and TD share and divides them by two. Dominator rating is a critical component of breakout age analysis, first introduced by Frank DuPont and Shawn Siegele at RotoViz. Critical thresholds are 20% and 30% based on research done by RotoViz and Playerprofiler.com.

Career yards per route run (YPRR) and explosive target rate are new additions. It's essential to note the limited sample size, but both of these metrics popped when analyzing a multitude of data points against future fantasy points per game (PPG).

YPRR provides additional efficiency information and correlates more strongly than receiving yardage. Of course, YPRR isn't a new stat. It's been proven to be a stable and vital metric for a decade now for fantasy football purposes.

Explosive target rates provide critical insight into a WR's big-play ability.

Tier 1

While this rookie class's WR talent isn't quite as deep as the 2022 draft class, we have three prospects expected to go in the first round of the NFL Draft. All three are early declares who delivered big dominator ratings by their age-20 season.

Since 2017, similar comps to this group have registered a top-24 fantasy finish by Year 3 over 50% of the time.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Ohio State | 6’1 and 196 lbs.

Fantasy Life WR Super Model: 90th percentile
Underdog ADP: WR29, Round 5
Rookie ADP: WR1, No. 2 Overall (per Dynasty League Football)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba started behind Quentin Johnston and Jordan Addison in February NFL mock drafts but has since climbed to become the projected No. 1 WR to be selected in recent weeks.

Technically, Smith-Njigba missed the 30% dominator threshold, coming in at just 26% in his age-19 season as a sophomore.

However, it's important to factor in the talent level of his teammates at Ohio State, Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, both of whom were first-round NFL picks. As such, Smith-Njigba's dominator rating deserves a pass. Even in the face of fierce target competition, he delivered a team-leading 3.22 YPTPA in 2021.

Smith-Njigba doesn’t have the top-end speed some expect from prospects in the first round of the NFL Draft, but he hasn’t had any issue with creating chunk plays. Per PFF data, the Ohio State product delivered a 15-plus yard reception on 34% of his plays, which ranks in the 92nd percentile since 2017.

While Smith-Njigba operated primarily out of the slot in college, he wasn’t just an underneath option, and recent history tells us that playing from the slot shouldn’t be held against high-end WR prospects.

And when teams tried their luck with press-man coverage looks against him, things didn’t work out so well. Smith-Njigba's 3.64 YPRR ranked second among all Power Five WRs with at least 75 routes run.

While Smith-Njigba isn’t an exact stylistic comp for DeVonta Smith or Jerry Jeudy, the model plots him alongside those two based on adjusted production and expected draft capital. On film, there are a lot of similarities between how Smith-Njigba and Amon-Ra St. Brown win on their routes.

Quentin Johnston | TCU | 6’3 and 208 lbs.

Fantasy Life WR Super Model: 87th percentile
Underdog ADP: WR42, Round 7
Rookie ADP: WR2, No. 4 Overall

Quentin Johnston’s expected NFL Draft capital has slipped a bit since his peak in January as the top projected WR on the board, but he is still firmly in the Round 1 conversation as the No. 16 overall option on consensus big boards.

Johnston is a dangerous vertical threat, as his career average depth of target (aDOT) in college was 15.6 yards, which ranks in the 73rd percentile for prospects since 2017.

And per PFF Data, Johnston was an absolute monster against press man coverage, with a juicy 33% TPRR and an eye-popping 3.85 YPRR over the last two seasons. No player with at least 75 routes against press man was better in the Power Five.

While some might see him as a contested-catch specialist like Mike Williams, Johnston also demonstrated high-end ability to create yards after the catch.

Collegiate WRs with an aDOT of 14-plus yards have averaged 4.9 yards after the catch (YAC) since 2014. Johnston almost doubled that with a career average of 8.3 YAC.

Not only does the TCU product offer the prototype size that NFL teams love, but he also has deceptive change-of-direction skills, especially on slants and hitch routes where Johnston can consistently reverse direction to spin out of tackles.

There are some concerns in the scouting community about Johnston playing smaller than his size, as you do see some occasional concentration drops due to body catching. However, his 9% drop rate is in line with the NCAA average since 2014.

And although we love to see WRs catch with their hands, there are routes where it doesn’t matter much, especially for bigger WRs like Johnston who can box out defenders.

One potential issue is a lack of consistency when he's high pointing on deep throws, but most prospects come with some type of flaw.

In general, the raw upside is undeniable when analyzing Johnston’s data and film. He has the most upside in the 2023 draft class due to his unique blend of size, ability to stretch the field, and proficiency in creating yards after the catch.

Our model likes the Mike Williams comp (88th percentile) and offers up Courtland Sutton as another comp on the lower end of the spectrum for Johnston.

Jordan Addison | USC | 5’11 and 173 lbs.

Fantasy Life Super Model: 87th percentile
Underdog ADP: WR44, Round 7
Rookie ADP: WR3, No. 5 Overall

Jordan Addison's expected NFL Draft capital has slipped from the low teens to the mid-20s after weighing in at 173 pounds at the combine, which places him in the third percentile since 2011. However, lighter WRs have delivered strong fantasy performances in recent years.

Marquise Brown - 166 lbs.
DeVonta Smith - 170 lbs.
Jaylen Waddle - 180 lbs.

While his weight concerns give some fantasy GMs pause, Addison is a baller overall. He delivered the best Power Five conference breakout age in the class with a 32% dominator rating in his age-18 season as a true sophomore at Pitt. He's delivered consistency from the word "go".

Year	Routes per Pass Play	Targets	TPRR	Rec Yards / Team Pass Att	YPRR	Rec Yards %	TD %	Dominator Rating
2022	72%	22%	25%	2.32	2.78	25%	28%	26%
2021	85%	28%	27%	2.93	2.94	34%	39%	36%
2020	76%	25%	26%	1.77	2.00	27%	33%	30%

Addison ran 60% of his routes from the slot at Pitt, but he only played inside on 24% of his routes in 2022 after transferring to USC. However, an astounding 25% of his targets came from behind the line of scrimmage, which is some cause for concern about his product at the pro level.

That said, Addison wasn’t just a gadget player. He earned a target 28% of the time with a 3.25 YPRR (sixth-best in the Power Five) when he faced press man coverage.

An when defenders gave him cushion, Addison did an excellent job manipulating defensive backs or finding their blind spot to help create separation. He was adept at beating both zone and man coverages from the inside or outside.

While Addison doesn’t have blazing speed and isn’t a strong contested-catch option, he's been able to win due to his route-running prowess and ability to make double moves.

Addison reminds me of Diontae Johnson when watching the film, and Johnson is well within the range of comps for our model.

Tier 2

Jalin Hyatt | Tennessee | 6’0 and 176 lbs.

Fantasy Life Super Model: 81st percentile
Underdog ADP: WR55, Round 10
Rookie ADP: WR6, No. 10 Overall

Jalin Hyatt was an afterthought heading into the 2022 season in NFL circles, but after a breakout his junior year, that all changed. The speedster finished second in receiving among Power Five WRs with 1,267 yards and led the way with 15 TDs.

His expected draft capital has taken a slight hit since the combine after weighing in at only 176 lbs., but Hyatt is still expected to be drafted in the late-first or early-second round.

The Volunteer saw his aDOT surge from 12.2 yards over his first two seasons to 18.9 yards as a junior, and his explosive target rate climbed from 23% to 28% over the same span.

Although Hyatt didn’t break out by his age-20 season like his peers in Tier 1, statistically speaking, his junior season was quite the turnaround with his 3.21 YPTA and 37% dominator rating.

Hyatt doesn’t match the typical archetype that comes to mind when most people think of a WR who operated almost exclusively out of the slot (88%). He was strong against both man and zone coverages with 3.15 and 3.48 YPRR, respectively.

Per PFF data, no other WR in the Power Five had more yardage (1,085) or TDs (13) on plays with over a step of separation as Hyatt did in 2022.

While part of that is due to Hyatt’s angle-eliminating speed, the team also went out of their way to provide their star WR with clean releases. In his final season, Tennessee used stacked formations and backfield alignments to create uncontested releases.

Of his 387 routes, 337 came with Hyatt aligned off the line of scrimmage, where he delivered a 3.17 YPRR, and his film has a lot of confounding coverage mistakes.

Of course, that doesn’t mean that Hyatt can’t win when on the line of scrimmage. He averaged 4.00 YPRR playing on the line of scrimmage, albeit in a small smaple size of only 50 routes.

The model likes but doesn’t love Hyatt, which aligns with some perplexing aspects of analyzing his game on film.

Hyatt is the No. 1 prospect for Lance Zierlein and Next Gen Stats at NFL.com, and Zierlein comps Hyatt to DeSean Jackson. While that is a pretty steamy comp, I can understand Zierlein's comparison.

Hyatt has a slender build, but his difference-making speed allows him to stretch the vertical boundary in a significant way. Will Fuller comes to mind at times when watching Hyatt play.

Though Hyatt might not see much target volume at the NFL level, his big-play upside is undeniable. The low end of his comp range in our model is James Washington, and the high end is Christian Watson.

Zay Flowers | Boston College | 5’9 and 182 lbs.

Fantasy Life Super Model: 79th percentile
Underdog ADP: WR48, Round 9
Rookie ADP: WR4, No. 7 Overall

Zay Flowers’s projected NFL Draft stock went from a Round 3 selection before last season to having late-first-round potential over the last few weeks. He wasn’t a household name due to being in a passing attack that couldn’t muster 2,300 yards in two of his first three seasons.

As a four-year prospect, Flowers is the oldest player in the top two tiers. However, he broke out as a sophomore in his age-20 season with a 34% dominator rating.

He then proceeded to surpass that dominator rating in each of the next two seasons, 36% in 2021 and 47% last year. Flowers was a target monster over his final three collegiate seasons, with target shares of 28%, 28%, and 31%, respectively.

And despite being on the shorter side, Flowers played outside on the majority of snaps and garnered a healthy aDOT of 13 yards. He could move inside at the next level, but he has the ability to also operate on the boundary.

The big question is whether Flowers can win vertically against better coverage at his size. On average, 30% of his targets came 20-plus yards downfield, well above the NCAA average of 17%.

He has a knack for jumping into a defender's back pocket and putting them in a blender once their hips turn.

Sep 3, 2022; Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts, USA; Boston College Eagles receiver Zay Flowers (4) avoids a tackle by Rutgers Scarlet Knights cornerback Kessawn Abraham (5) during the second half at Alumni Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports

On paper, Flowers struggled against man coverage with a 1.21 YPRR over the last two years. However, 42% of his targets were contested, which was partially due to bad QB play.

Only 60% of his targets against man coverage were deemed catchable, and on several misses, Flowers had beaten his defender and could've made huge plays had the passes been on-target.

The big takeaway here is that Flowers had a healthy 26% target rate on routes run against man coverage, so his low YPRR against man isn't as big a detracting factor as it might initially seem.

Of the WRs in the top two tiers, Flowers grades the lowest when you remove projected draft capital. There is a lot to like in his game, but he is an older prospect without prototypical size. His high-end comp is Christian Kirk, and Jalen Reagor is the low-end comp.

Josh Downs | North Carolina | 5’9 and 171 lbs.

Fantasy Life Super Model: 78th percentile
Underdog ADP: WR61, Round 12
Rookie ADP: WR5, No. 8 Overall

Prior to the 2022 season, Josh Downs was expected to be selected in the first round of the NFL Draft, but he now projects to go in the early second round.

His final college season was slightly less productive than his breakout campaign as a sophomore in 2021, when he posted a 3.49 YPTPA on a 40% target share. That said, while his junior season wasn’t as strong, it was still good, as Downs had a 2.40 YPTPA and 29% target share.

Scoring TDs can be a concern for some slot WRs, but it wasn’t an issue for Downs, who accounted for 31% and 39% of North Carolina’s receiving scores over the last two seasons, respectively.

Keeping that level of scoring efficiency in the NFL won't be an easy feat though, as Downs had a low 44th-percentile explosive target rate (19%) and 34th-percentile aDOT (8.8).

In fact, only 14% of his targets were over 20 yards downfield over the last two seasons. And at his size, Downs isn’t likely to be a huge threat in the red zone, which could make him more of a low-ceiling PPR option in fantasy.

Despite his lack of size, though, Downs was great against man coverage (including press), posting the second-highest TPRR in the Power Five at 35% from 2021 to 2022. His ability to beat man coverage could be useful on third downs, as NFL teams use more man concepts against pressure then.

However, Downs wasn't nearly as effective against zone coverage, the primary look that NFL defenses like to use, but still registered a solid 25% TPRR (62nd) against those looks.

Downs's best fit would be as the slot option in a high-octane passing attack that loves to utilize three or four WR sets. In two WR sets or more multiple offense, like much of the league runs now with the Shanahan scheme, his snap share and fantasy output could be in jeopardy.

Marvin Mims | Oklahoma | 5’11 and 183 lbs.

Fantasy Life Super Model: 75th percentile
Underdog ADP: WR83, Round 16

Marvin Mims is currently expected to go in the third round of the NFL Draft and is trending slightly upward after a great NFL Combine, where Mims ranked in the 89th percentile or better in the 40-yard dash, vertical jump, and broad jump.

The former four-star recruit got off to a hot start with a 20% dominator rating as an 18-year-old freshman in 2020. However, he never reached the 30% threshold in his three-year career with the Sooners.

Mims was an explosive downfield threat, registering an 87th-percentile explosive target rate (32%) with a 79th-percentile career aDOT (16.7). On average, 37% of his targets came 20-plus yards downfield each season, which was well above the NCAA average of 21%.

He also improved his route participation each season (35%, 57% and 84%, respectively), but his TPRR data was inconsistent (33%, 15%, and 22%, respectively), averaging 22% for his career.

Thanks to his explosiveness, the model likes Mims. He is the only WR projected to go in Round 3 of the NFL Draft that scores highly enough as a prospect to make it to Tier 2. He could even move to the top of the Tier 2 WRs Mims were to be drafted earlier than currently expected.

OU's Marvin Mims (17) scores a touchdown during last season's win against Texas in Dallas. mims Credit: Bryan Terry-THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK

Mims is more of a build-up speed guy on film than an instant explosion type of WR. He can get over the top of defenders, but not consistently. As such, many of his catch opportunities were contested despite some highlight-reel grabs.

He is at his best on deep crossing routes, a major source of his deep targets and yards after the catch. However, Mims is average as a YAC producer on underneath routes, often going down on first contact.

He could gobble up air yards as a deep threat in the NFL, but while the model likes Mims, he's unlikely to see much target volume at the pro level. A good fit for Mims might be as a slot WR asked to attack defenses downfield on seam routes and deep crossing concepts.

Dyami Brown was the last deep threat to score similarly in the model with third-round draft capital, which isn't a promising comp for Mims. However, second-rounders Christian Kirk and D.J. Chark are also in the comp pool.

Tier 3

Tyler Scott | Cincinnati | 5’10 and 177 lbs.

Fantasy Life Super Model: 68th percentile
Underdog ADP: WR104, late rounds

Once considered a late-round NFL Draft selection, Tyler Scott now projects to be a third-round pick. He was initially recruited as a three-star RB out of high school but converted to WR.

Scott's career started slowly. He saw little playing time as a freshman and managed just a 15% dominator rating as a sophomore, but Scott broke out in his junior season with a 25% target share and a 37% dominator rating.

Operating primarily on the boundary, Scott was asked to attack the underneath and intermediate areas of the field (12.2 aDOT). Surprisingly, despite his experience as a RB in high school, only 7% of his targets came behind the line of scrimmage in college.

Hitches and slants were staples of his route tree, but Scott also worked downfield. He was average in terms of deep targets, with 20% of his looks coming on throws of over 20 yards.

Scott enjoyed playing against lesser competition, he still logged an okay 2.30 YPRR when facing Power Five opponents. He even beat Arkansas's coverage over the top four times in one game, but he dropped one of those deep targets, and his QB missed the other three.

His biggest weakness was a lack of success against man coverage. Per PFF, Scott's YPRR was 2.72 yards against zone but only a pitiful 0.81 against man.

Scott was a late bloomer, but he looked more explosive than Mims on film despite having seen fewer downfield targets. Scott is a stronger YAC option in the short game but is still figuring out the WR position.

That said, with reps and experience on the right NFL team, he could have some upside in the deep game, though it's hard to imagine a huge downfield role given his collegiate usage.

Few players in his range of comps have had fantasy success, but Amon-Ra St. Brown was one WR who shared a similar prospect score, so there's some hope yet for Scott.

Rashee Rice | SMU | 6’1 and 204 lbs.

Fantasy Life Super Model: 68th percentile
Underdog ADP: WR90, late rounds

Rashee Rice was a late bloomer, which hurts him in the model. He didn't produce much until he reached a 32% dominator rating as a 22.4-year-old senior last season. And in spite of his 1,355 yards as a senior, Rice's career YPTPA ranked in the 47th percentile, which is a clear step down from players in the top two WR tiers above.

Rice does has decent size, which is lacking among the top WR prospects in this draft class. He worked more as an intermediate option with a 9.5 aDOT, primarily playing outside. As a senior, Rice registered a high-end target share (34%) and set a career-high deep target rate (26%).

Nov 14, 2020; Tulsa, Oklahoma, USA; Southern Methodist Mustangs wide receiver Rashee Rice (11) goes up for the ball as Tulsa Golden Hurricane cornerback Tyon Davis (0) closes in during the fourth quarter at Skelly Field at H.A. Chapman Stadium. TU won the game 28-24. Mandatory Credit: Brett Rojo-USA TODAY Sports

Playing at SMU, he only ran 122 routes against Power Five opponents. However, his 2.34 YPRR against Power Five opponents was identical to his overall career average.

On film, Rice has some ruggedness to his game and can be a possession receiver, as shown by his 37 combined targets against Maryland and TCU as a senior. However, in those games, his speed appeared to be average, at best.

Kayshon Boutte | LSU | 5’11 and 195 lbs.

Fantasy Life Super Model: 66th percentile
Underdog ADP: WR85, Round 16

After posting a 20% dominator rating as a true freshman at the age of 18, Kayshon Boutte had first-round buzz in fantasy and NFL circles.

He then got off to a hot start in his sophomore campaign with a 41% dominator rating on a 23% target share prior to suffering a season-ending ankle injury on an amazing sideline grab in Week 6 against Kentucky.

Unfortunately, since then, things haven’t gone well for the former four-star recruit. In his final season last year, Boutte hit career-lows in YPTPA (1.45) and dominator rating (16%).

On top of that, he failed to impress NFL brass at the combine by testing poorly in speed and explosiveness drills. With some health concerns as well following two surgeries on his right ankle, Boutte is now expected to be a third-round selection in the NFL Draft rather than a first-round pick.

Most of Boutte’s career 21% target share came in the intermediate range of the field with an aDOT 11.1 yards, as just 19% of these targets were 20 yards or more downfield.

Still, he demonstrated an ability to beat both man and zone coverage. While Boutte was below average in explosive target rate (20%), he did play against elite competition in the SEC.

On film, there's also plenty to like about Boutte. He isn’t the most polished WR, but he can beat defenders deep and create some yards after the catch on intermediate routes.

Boutte is at his best on deep in routes and slants where he can cleanly pluck the ball and make music after the catch. He can also beat press techniques but can be late to uncover on deeper routes.

Players in this range of the model don’t often find success, but at least we have seen the potential upside with Boutte at a young age. If he can regain his early-collegiate form, Boutte could be a steal thanks to his ability to win in multiple ways.

The model likes him as the third-best WR in Tier 3, but he might carry the highest upside. I personally like him over Rice despite what the model says.

Jayden Reed | Michigan State | 5’11 and 187 lbs.

Fantasy Life Super Model: 66th percentile
Underdog ADP: WR112, late rounds

Jayden Reed’s expected NFL Draft capital has held fairly steady over the last two seasons as a potential Round 3 or Round 4 selection.

Reed broke out as a freshman at Western Michigan with a 34% dominator rating before transferring to Michigan State as a sophomore. He picked up where he left off, delivering 23%, 27%, and 24% target shares, respectively, over his final three seasons.

However, his career YPTPA is in the 52nd percentile, and he will be 23 years old as an NFL rookie after spending four years in college.

Nov 19, 2022; East Lansing, Michigan, USA; Michigan State Spartans wide receiver Jayden Reed (1) fends-off Indiana Hoosiers defensive back Jaylin Williams (23) at Spartan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Young-USA TODAY Sports

Early in his career, he operated primarily from the slot, but over the last two seasons, Reed played from the outside and saw more deep shots (29%). His aDOT of 11.5 yards ranks in the 57th percentile compared to WR prospects since the 2017 NFL Draft.

The four-year prospect delivered a 2.49 YPRR against Power Five opponents versus man coverage with a 30% TPRR. However, when opponents went to zone coverage, the offense was much more diluted, with Reed’s YPRR falling to 1.67 along with a lower 22% TPRR.

Ultimately, while Reed is lower in the model due to his age, he had above-average production over the course of his college career.

Cedric Tillman | Tennessee | 6’3 and 213 lbs.

Fantasy Life Super Model: 66th percentile
Underdog ADP: WR94, late rounds

Cedric Tillman will be 23 years old as an NFL rookie after spending five years at Tennessee, which pulls his score down. If not accounting for his projected third-round NFL Draft capital, Tillman would be the lowest-graded WR in Tier 3, below the 50th percentile.

The three-star recruit experienced his breakout season as a junior with a 34% dominator rating. Unfortunately, Tillman suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 3 of his senior year, and while he toughed it out and still led the team with a 29% target share, his YPTPA (1.99) and dominator rating (20%) both regressed as a result.

Tillman’s 74th-percentile aDOT (15.8) and 29% deep target rate suggest that he has downfield utility, but he didn’t provide much after the catch, and his explosive target rate (22%) was only slightly above average.

In a draft class lacking size or X options among the top WR prospects, Tillman could be selected a bit earlier than currently expected in the NFL Draft.

He has the size that some front offices will value, and though the film community values Tillman more than the spreadsheet nerds, history comes down more often than not on the side of the data in these situations.

Lance Zierlein comps Tillman to Michael Pittman Jr., which is a fair comparison since both WRs profile as possession receivers who broke out later in their collegiate careers. However, Miles Boykin is the closest third-round comp since 2017 in the Fantasy Life Rookie Super Model, which isn't exactly encouraging for Tillman's prospects.

A.T. Perry | Wake Forest | 6’3 and 198 lbs.

Fantasy Life Super Model: 64th percentile
Underdog ADP: WR110, late rounds

As a rookie in the NFL, A.T. Perry will turn 24 years old, and his 21.9-year-old breakout age is a knock on his profile. The Fantasy Life Super Model suggests that Perry shouldn’t be a third-round selection in the NFL Draft, but it seems like a real possibility given his size and the lack of bigger WR options in the 2023 class.

Perry’s career dominator rating (24%), YPTPA (1.89), and explosive target rate (18%) all register below the 50th percentile. His career YPRR (2.44) is slightly above average at the 53rd percentile.

Nov 27, 2021; Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts, USA; Wake Forest Demon Deacons wide receiver A.T. Perry (9) reaches for the ball while Boston College Eagles defensive back Elijah Jones (20) defends during the second half at Alumni Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

The former three-star recruit operated on the outside, attacking downfield with a 15.0 aDOT for Wake Forest. A quarter of Perry's targets came on throws 20-plus yards downfield, but the data suggests that he didn't add much in the YAC department and isn’t a big play threat.

He was consistent across man and zone coverage with 2.34 and 2.24 YPRRs, respectively.

Like Tillman, the scouting community is higher on Perry than the data profile would suggest. However, it's hard to get excited about a WR with a late breakout age who also doesn't have any seasons of elite production or metrics.

His best YPTPA (50th percentile) and YPRR (49th) are still average compared to prospects dating back to the 2017 class, which implies that Perry probably doesn't have a high ceiling as an NFL or fantasy prospect.

Nathaniel (Tank) Dell | Houston | 5’8 and 165 lbs.

Fantasy Life Super Model: 63rd percentile
Underdog ADP: WR106, late rounds

Nathaniel Dell’s 68th-percentile career dominator rating (35%) and 67th-percentile career YPTPA (2.60) are positive aspects to his data profile. However, he comes from a non-Power Five conference and will turn 24 years old as a rookie.

And while size isn’t everything, Dell is historically small.

He was a target monster for the Cougars with 32% and 33% target shares, respectively, over the last three seasons. Dell's career aDOT was 11.8 yards, and his career 27% TPRR tells us that he has always demanded the rock when on the field.

Dell has a small sample size of just 47 routes lined up on the ball against Power Five competition, but he registered a much lower 1.77 YPRR in those situations compared to a much higher 2.94 YPRR when protected via an off-the-ball alignment.

To his credit, though, he wasn’t just a gadget option. Only 15% of Dell's targets came behind the line of scrimmage, and just 11% came off motion.

His closest comp in the Fantasy Life Rookie Super Model is Darnell Money, who went in the fifth round of the 2020 NFL Draft.

Check out the full rookie model!

NFL Rookie Super Model Tiers: WRs