Rome Odunze Scouting Report and Fantasy Football Outlook

Rome Odunze Scouting Report

Underdog ADP: 45.5 overall (WR29), rookie WR3

The Washington Huskies are expected to produce not one, not two, but three high-end WRs who should be off the board by the time Round 4 of the 2024 NFL Draft comes around.

That said: Rome Odunze is rather clearly the alpha of the group — and he would have a strong case as THE WR1 in a less-loaded draft class.

Seriously, just look at what the former four-star recruit was able to produce during his last two years of college football.

Odunze among 125 qualified Power 5 WRs in 2022-23:

PFF receiving grade: 89.9 (No. 4)
Passer rating when targeted: 119.2 (tied for No. 19)
Receiving yards: 2,784 (No. 1)
Receiving TD: 20 (tied for No. 9)
Yards per route run: 2.74 (No. 8)
Yards per reception: 16.7 (No. 13)
Targets per route run: 24.6% (No. 40)

Playing with Michael Penix Jr. certainly helped matters; just realize Odunze MORE than held his own when it came to helping out his QB in contested catch situations.

There’s an argument that Odunze is the most pure “five-tool” WR in this year’s class:

Size: 6-foot-3 (80th percentile), 212 pounds (73rd)
Athleticism: 9.69 RAS score — good for 96th out of 3,063 WRs from 1987 to 2024
Route-running ability: Boasts the first all-green route tree in Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception history
Hands: Only charged with three drops on 99 catchable targets last season; absurd 75% contested-catch conversion rate
Playmaking ability: Forced 15 missed tackles in 2023; Odunze is pretty damn good with the football in his hands

Hell, the man is even as tough as they come; Odunze broke a rib and punctured his lung while recovering an onside kick vs. Arizona and didn’t miss any game action.

Of course, the 21-year-old talent isn’t projected to be the first WR off the board and (like anyone else) shouldn’t be considered a perfect prospect. Let’s dig into the pros and cons of Odunze to get a better idea of what his fantasy football upside might be in 2024 and beyond.

Pros and Cons of Rome Odunze

Pros

A true contested-catch artist

Overall, Odunze managed to snag a whopping 21 of his 28 contested targets in 2023 — the 75% conversion rate was easily the highest mark among 57 qualified Power 5 WRs.

The highlight reel here borders on ridiculous.

Now, this isn’t the stickiest year-over-year stat in the world. After all, looking at the same metric in 2022 (4-of-16, 25%) would lead you to believe Odunze was bad in these sorts of situations.

This is where grinding the ole film helps matters. Per NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein:

“While most receivers look to open separation windows with speed or route running, Odunze seems to relish jump balls and contested catches. He shines in all aspects of ball skills, including positioning, body control, hand strength, timing and mid-air adjustments.”

Size? Check. Ball skills? Check. Elite vertical jumping ability? Check.

It’s safe to say that at a minimum, Odunze’s chances of coming down with 50/50 balls are far more akin to AT LEAST 60/40 than most mere mortals at the position.

Of course, the Washington product does a good job of getting open enough to not force these situations too often anyway.

Separates at a high level

This is especially true considering Odunze’s aforementioned big-bodied frame. His release package has drawn lofty, yet warranted, comps to guys like Davante Adams and Amari Cooper. Hell, Odunze even makes a habit of adding a bit of flair to get more open on screens.

Wiggle at the top of an out route to break free? No problem.

Late separation on go balls to get open at the last second? You bet.

Filthy double moves to instantly create big plays? Oh baby, yes.

You name the route and there’s a good chance that Odunze managed to consistently create separation on it. Per PFF: Odunze registered a 100th percentile receiving grade vs. single coverage in 2023.

Of course, things get admittedly a bit easier for someone who spent an entire four years playing college football.

Nov 18, 2023; Corvallis, Oregon, USA; Washington Huskies wide receiver Rome Odunze (1) celebrates a touchdown during the second quarter against the Oregon State Beavers at Reser Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Craig Strobeck-USA TODAY Sports

Cons

Relatively late-breakout prospect

This is where Odunze falls short of Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers in Dwain McFarland’s Fantasy Life Rookie WR Super Model: As great as the 2023 numbers were, Odunze isn’t quite in the same upper echelon when looking at career production.

Career adjusted RYPTPA (receiving yards per team pass attempt): Harrison (1.43), Nabers (1.6), Odunze (1.07)
Career targeted QB rating: Harrison (129.3), Nabers (123.2), Odunze (111)
Career total TDs per game: Harrison (0.86), Nabers (0.55), Odunze (0.65)

Now, those numbers aren’t bad, but they were enough for Dwain to bump Odunze to Tier 2 as opposed to being the 1.C alongside the draft’s (mostly) consensus top-two WRs.

The fact of the matter is that *most* of the top-performing rookie WRs in recent history declared early for the NFL:

From 2014-2023:

30 of the top 50 (60%) top rookie WR seasons in terms of PPR points per game (min. 8 games) came from early declare players
15 of the top-24 (63%)
9 of the top-12 (75%)

Not exactly a death blow, but would Odunze still be considered a top-10 pick had he come out after his 75-1,145-7 campaign in 2022?

Additionally…

Feasted against some pretty meh secondaries

I took the average team defense PFF coverage grade by conference in 2023:

ACC: 82.2
SEC: 80.9
Big 10: 79.9
Pac 12: 77.1
Big 12: 75.6

It’s not exactly surprising to see the pair of “12” conferences at the bottom of the list, although to Odunze’s credit: He did make a habit of rising to the occasion against some of his stiffer nonconference tests.

For example, Odunze’s 5-87-0 performance against future first-round Michigan CB Will Johnson proved that the Washington product is plenty capable of winning one-on-one against pretty much the best that college football has to offer.

Ultimately, even these “cons” feel nitpicky; Odunze might be the most complete overall WR in this class, even if his single-most elite calling card doesn’t quite stand up to guys like Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers.

Fantasy Football Outlook for Rome Odunze

While I won’t go quite as far as projecting Odunze as the next Davante Adams, something in the Amari Cooper to Michael Crabtree universe seems fair. Still, maybe I am underselling him: NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah said Odunze reminds him of Larry Fitzgerald coming out of college.

The Athletic’s Dane Brugler shared similar high-end optimism in his exceptional “The Beast” breakdown:

“Overall, Odunze is an above-average height/weight/speed athlete with the pass-catching instincts and competitive focus to be a playmaking NFL receiver. He projects as a true X receiver and has the skill level to elevate his quarterback’s play (stylistically similar to Drake London).”

Ultimately, Odunze is indeed my WR3 behind Harrison Jr. and Nabers, but the gap isn’t large at all. The three pristine landing spots on teams with elite QBs and a dire need for a true No. 1 WR (Buffalo, Los Angeles, Arizona) could wind up being the tiebreaker here. Accordingly, Odunze’s status as easily the cheapest of the three in re-draft and dynasty land alike makes him a screaming buy at the moment in fantasy leagues of all shapes and sizes.

Rome Odunze Scouting Report and Fantasy Football Outlook