You can’t beat a night of bowling with friends.

Look, I’ll try any activity that allows for an adult beverage during breaks. It’s the best of both worlds. But there are multiple parallels between chucking a ball towards a bunch of pins and this game we play. 

Both sound simple in theory, but require an understanding of various nuances to master. Guardrails are put in place to keep us from harm. Strategies involving brute force or finesse can work. And if you’re drafting from the 1.11, the worlds collide even more.

The eleven spot is like bowling. You take your shot. Then, the 1.12 makes their selections. Meanwhile, you’ve got some time to adjust. There’s time to take stock of the move you just made, what your opponent did, and how to play the rest of the draft. 

The First Round for the 1.11 in 2025 Fantasy Football Drafts

Imagine you’re waiting at the eleven spot. After each pick, you’re crossing names off the board. Eventually, it’s your turn. Sometimes your leaguemates leave you with a tough decision.

I used our Draft Champion tool—presented by Gopuff—to simulate the first round using composite ADP from multiple providers. At the very least, we get a sense of what to expect. And, luckily, we’ve discussed most of these guys before.

Ashton Jeanty’s collegiate profile and situation check the boxes for a workhorse RB1 suitable for a first-round draft pick. Drafting De’Von Achane is like getting a discount on Jahmyr Gibbs. Achane’s target share and ability to create explosives are the hallmarks of a top-6 RB. And both receivers sit in the same tier. Or, said another way, their workloads and projected outcomes are similar enough that drafters should be happy with either. Regardless, you could make the case for all four players. But also, your league could throw you a curveball.

I ran the simulator multiple times to switch things up. Not everyone’s league drafts the same way. Your board is going to look different than my home league’s. To emphasize my point, after a couple more runs, I got a different combination of options.

However, the takeaway isn’t the varying choices. It’s how we adapt to them. I’ve mentioned before that our past selections should inform our future decisions. You wouldn’t approach a 7-10 split the same way you’d attack just the head pin remaining. The first ball should set you up for an easy score later. But depending on your process, the results may vary.

• Multiverse 1: Malik Nabers, Robust RB
• Multiverse 2: Ashton Jeanty, Hero RB
• Multiverse 3: Nico Collins, Balanced

I’m forcing specific draft plans for each player to work through certain scenarios. But even here, reflecting on the impact of such a decision makes sense. Other players who would deviate from the method might be available. We might need to pay more attention to our full roster, rather than focusing on specific names. In any case, we can leverage what we see from our leaguemates and our rankings here to build a contender.

Rest Of The Early Round Draft Strategy From 1.11

Our first instance of altering our next move based on past decisions comes at the 14th overall pick. Not only do we have our first-rounder to consider, but what Team 12 did on the turn, too.

Now, in this case, we’ve already solved half of the problem by deciding on a plan. A Robust-RB process would call for a rusher here. Plus, as I noted earlier, De’Von Achane has top-six potential. Your click should be instantaneous. But consider the alternative.

Let’s say Achane was gone by 2.02. You had a grand scheme, and your leaguemate ruined it. However, by comparing the projection for Miami’s RB1 to the other guys in his tier, you can find a couple of consolation prizes.

• Achane: 15.7 (projected PPR PPG), 16.2 (Yahoo ADP)
• Jacobs: 13.6, 16.6
• Irving:  13.4, 21.1

The other plot line would be if you weren’t certain about Nabers’s bid to be a top-5 WR. George Pickens finished as a top-12 WR with Russell Wilson under center just twice in ’24. HC Brian Daboll still wants to develop Jaxson Dart. And Nabers is still dealing with a (minor) back problem. Pivoting to another position and complementing Nabers with another WR also works. Again, our positional tiers can guide the way.

The difference between either Brian Thomas or A.J. Brown and Nabers is 1.3 PPR PPG or less. By adding one of them, you’ve not only mitigated some of the risk associated with Nabers but made a strength stronger on the weeks they both churn out top-12 outings. By applying this process throughout the early rounds, we can avoid scrambling as the early rounds unfold.

In hindsight, the Zay Flowers/Xavier Worthy combination has more strength behind it than I first thought. The reality is, Worthy will likely go ahead of Flowers. The Chiefs’ passing pie is much larger than the Ravens, and the looming Rashee Rice suspension will push more fantasy managers toward the sophomore receiver. However, Flowers was able to earn a larger opportunity share with an equally efficient passer.

• Flowers (Weeks 7-17): 25.7% (Target Share), 34.5% (Air Yard Share), 2.38 (Yards per Route Run)
• Worthy: 18.9%, 25.1%, 1.24

On the bright side, I didn’t have to choose between the two. However, the perception around each might turn into a bias. Regardless, if you use the tiers as guardrails (or bumpers, to keep the bowling analogy alive), a player’s utility and usage becomes a larger consideration over their name and its connotation.

Mid-Round Strategy in Fantasy Football Drafts From 1.11

Let’s focus on Team 1 and the Robust RB approach. As I transition in the middle rounds, I assess my roster for gaps to fill. This team had two glaring holes.

• QB
• WR3 and depth

In a PPR league, especially one requiring three starting WRs each week, there’s never enough supply for our demand. Even worse, by focusing on my RB stable, I’m either short one starter or in need of a weekly starter worth FLEX consideration. My QB situation was just as dire.

Having to wait 20 picks is bad enough. Waiting while eyeing a QB is even worse. On the one hand, there are about 12 QBs with ADPs in the sixth to tenth rounds. Sounds great, right? However, Brock Purdy and C.J. Stroud are the bookends of that group. Per our projections, only 14 points separate them. Their environments (e.g., offensive line, pass-catching corps, play-callers) or traits (e.g., accuracy, mobility, tendencies), and how you value them, will be the thumb on the scale, adding more value to one of them. However, when it comes to drafting them, the 1.12 can help you adjust your plans.

Team 12 went the early-QB route. I have no issue with it. Jalen Hurts as the QB4, despite the third-round price tag, is realistic. More importantly, they’ve provided valuable information we can use.

Team 12 doesn’t need to (or at least they shouldn’t have to) take another QB. Kyler Murray sits at the top of Tier 3 of our QB rankings, but WR was also a priority. I had multiple choices at this position, as well.

• Travis Hunter
• Jakobi Meyers
• Ricky Pearsall

But knowing Team 11 had a QB allowed me to narrow my focus. I could draft a receiver now, and push my selection of a passer to the next round. In other words, I could have my cake and eat it too.

Critically, the takeaway isn’t about having to get Murray on your roster. The concept involves turning the information provided by the drafter next to you into an advantage. They have a QB; focus on your other needs before taking yours. The same goes for TE. Accordingly, your roster decisions become much simpler, and the final result is all the more stronger by not going with the flow of the draft.

Team 2 needed RBs. The lack of starters (and depth) was an easy hole to identify. Tacking on Jaylen Warren and Jordan Mason was a reasonable fix. Both are involved in timeshares with weekly floors. Each has added utility as a receiver. Plus, by adding Tank Bigsby, I’ve injected enough floor and ceiling potential into my RB room to offset my reliance on Jeanty. 

However, other names offer the same risk-reward outcomes. Quinshon Judkins, Zach Charbonnet, and Jaydon Blue all come to mind. But remember, the names are just the results. And if you use a similar process to what I’ve laid out, you’ll find yourself with a similar squad ready to make a run at a championship.

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