This article breaks down 2026 fantasy football rookie projections and where each player ranks in the Fantasy Life fantasy football projections model, including floors, medians and ceilings for key RBs, WRs and TEs.

Nerd Note: We have studied the variance associated with all the stats that make up fantasy production. That allows us to create a range of outcomes for each stat in a player's projection. For example, receiving TDs is more volatile than receiving yards and has a wider range of outcomes from the median. These ranges are based on healthy teammates, meaning injuries could unlock additional contingent upside not represented in the model.

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2026 Rookie RB Fantasy Football Projections & Rankings

Jeremiyah Love Fantasy Projections (RB, Cardinals)

• Floor Projection: 12.5 | 14.2 PPG
• Median Projection: 14.1 | 15.9 PPG
• Xfinity Best Ceiling Projection: 17.1 | 19.1 PPG

My median projection has Love immediately taking on the RB1 role, handling 63% of the rushing attempts—slightly lower than the median for top-10 RB picks—and posting a 58% route participation rate with a 12% target share. That provides him with a baseline of 993 rushing and 414 receiving yards. That is a solid role

However, the Cardinals project for only 4.7 wins (32nd) in Matthew Freedman's Game Model, and I have them projected for 2.0 offensive TDs per contest (27th). With Tyler Allgeier's propensity to command premium touches inside the five-yard line and the potential for a late-season Carson Beck takeover, Love's touchdown projection takes a hit. His baseline forecast is 6.3 rushing TDs and two receiving scores.

Historically, Love's Rookie Super Model comps have hit top-six fantasy RB territory 100% of the time by Year 3, but that is a stretch goal for Year 1 in Arizona.

Nerd Note: The Rookie Super Model calculates a rating between 50 and 100 for RB, WR and TE NFL Draft prospects. It accounts for college production, film, and NFL Draft picks and is more predictive than draft pick alone. The model normalizes production for age, strength of schedule, program quality, and collegiate teammates.

Takeaway: Love projects as a high-end RB2 with RB1 upside should he erase Allgeier's role inside the five-yard line or if the offense surprises. Love ranks as the RB15 in half-PPR projections and is a late Round 2 pick in early fantasy drafts.

Jadarian Price Fantasy Projections (RB, Seahawks)

• Floor Projection: 9.4 | 9.8 PPG
• Median Projection: 10.6 | 11.1 PPG
• Xfinity Best Ceiling Projection: 13.1 | 13.6 PPG

Price was considered a reach by the Rookie Super Model, which dampens his long-term outlook, but his opportunity to seize the day in Year 1 is undeniable. With Zach Charbonnet recovering from a February ACL surgery, he could miss 10+ games in 2026, leaving the Seahawks new Round 1 RB to challenge Emanuel Wilson and George Holani for snaps.

I have Price handling 58% of the rushing attempts as their RB1 in 2026. However, I was more conservative with his passing-game role due to his receiving profile as a prospect, forecasting a 23% route participation rate and a 4% target share. 

Still, the Seahawks have a great defense and love to pound the rock. With 11.5 projected wins in Freedman's Game Model (2nd) and a projection of 2.4 offensive TDs per game (15th), Seattle is a strong environment for Price's archetype.

Price could boom early in the season before Charbonnet returns, projecting for 1,003 rushing yards and 7.4 rushing TDs. His receiving projection is much more modest at 97 yards and 0.5 TDs.

Takeaway: Price projects as a high-end RB3 who offers RB2 potential until Charbonnet returns. He ranks as the RB26 in half-PPR projections and is a late Round 5 pick based on average draft position data (ADP) from early drafts on Underdog.

Fantasy Football Projections & Rankings For 2026 Rookie WRs

Jordyn Tyson Fantasy Projections (WR, Saints)

• Floor Projection: 9.2 | 11.4 PPG
• Median Projection: 10.3 | 12.8 PPG
• Xfinity Best Ceiling Projection: 12.3 | 15.0 PPG

With a lack of strong receiving options after Tyson and Chris Olave, the Saints' offense projects as one of the most consolidated passing attacks in the NFL. Tyson dominated every step of the way in college, demanding a career target share of 28% (77th percentile). I have him taking over the WR2 role from Day 1 with an 88% route participation rate and a 21% target share.   

The big question in New Orleans is whether Tyler Shough can support two strong fantasy WRs. Last year, in eight starts, he averaged 260 passing yards. But here is the good news: I have taken a more tempered approach for Shough's 2026 projection at 238 per game. The bad news: the Saints project 26th in offensive TDs per game at 2.0. So, the model is accounting for multiple concerns, but Tyson still projects well for a rookie.

Tyson projects for 78 receptions, 947 yards and 5.3 TDs. 

Takeaway: Tyson projects as a mid-range WR3 with WR2 upside. Tyson ranks as the WR33 in half-PPR projections and is an early Round 6 pick in fantasy drafts.

Carnell Tate Fantasy Projections (WR, Titans)

• Floor Projection: 8.8 | 10.7  PPG
• Median Projection: 9.9 | 12.1 PPG
• Xfinity Best Ceiling Projection: 11.9 | 14.3 PPG

As the No. 4 pick in the NFL Draft, Tate projects as the top option on the Titans with a 90% route participation rate and a 20% target share. He was never as dominant as Tyson, but played with elite WR prospects at Ohio State. You could argue that he will never play in an NFL WR room with that level of competition for targets. The Rookie Super Model accounts for this and views Tate's long-term range of outcomes positively. 

The top concern in Tennessee is Cam Ward's development. Can he take a big step in Year 2? Currently, Freedman's projection model has the Titans at 6.1 wins (27th), and I have their offensive TDs at 1.9 per game (28th). But, I do have Ward taking a step forward, upping his passing yards from 186 to 211 per game (27th) with the additions of Tate and Wan'Dale Robinson.

In Year 1, my baseline projections have Tate at 70 receptions for 924 yards and 5.2 TDs.

Takeaway: Tate projects as a borderline WR3 with mid-range WR2 upside. He ranks as the WR37 in half-PPR projections and is going at the beginning of Round 6 pick in early fantasy drafts.

KC Concepcion Fantasy Projections (WR, Browns)

• Floor Projection: 7.4 | 9.1 PPG
• Median Projection: 8.5 | 10.4 PPG
• Xfinity Best Ceiling Projection: 10.6 | 12.7 PPG

In the projection model, I have Concepcion as the Browns' WR1 with an 87% route participation rate and a 19% target share. He will have to compete with the target vacuum, Harold Fannin, to take over as the team's top pass catcher. 

Jerry Jeudy and Denzel Boston will also rotate, which is why I didn't give Concepcion a 90% route participation rate. But I do expect him to lead the team in routes, leveraging his dynamic skill set to handle schemed-up touches or threaten the intermediate and deep zones of the field. He also accounts for for 2% of Cleveland's attempts in the projection model.

While target competition and playing time aren't major concerns, the Browns' QB play is the elephant in the room. Those questions create systemic challenges.

• Projected wins in Freedman's Game Model: 5.8 (28th)
• Projected offensive TDs: 1.8 (31st)
• Projected passing yards per game: 206 (29th)
• Projected passing TDs per game: 1.1 (31st)

Once the model accounts for all the factors, Concepcion projects for 61 receptions, 752 yards and 4.1 TDs receiving. The Round 1 NFL Draft pick projects for 37 yards and 0.2 TDs on the ground. 

Takeaway: Concepcion projects as a mid-range WR4 with mid-range WR3 upside. He ranks as the WR48 in half-PPR projections and is a Round 10 pick in early fantasy drafts.

Omar Cooper Fantasy Projections (WR, Jets)

• Floor Projection: 6.9 | 8.4 PPG
• Median Projection: 7.8 | 9.5 PPG
• Xfinity Best Ceiling Projection: 9.7 | 11.7 PPG

Cooper projects as the WR2 behind Garrett Wilson with an 84% route participation rate and a 17% target share. The Rookie Super Model viewed Cooper as a Round 2 NFL Draft prospect, which kept me from pushing his target share too high based solely on his Round 1 pick status. That doesn't make him a bad prospect, but historically, his comparisons have reached WR3 territory by Year 3 less frequently than you might think.

Wilson is the clear-cut WR1 (25% target share), and Round 1 TE Kenyon Sadiq will battle with Cooper for what's left in an offense that also has a good receiving back in Breece Hall. So, we need Geno Smith to write back in 2026 to support multiple options behind Wilson. Currently, we have the Jets' offense projected as a liability.

• Projected wins in Freedman's Game Model: 5.1 (30th)
• Projected offensive TDs: 1.9 (30th)
• Projected passing yards per game: 223 (21st)
• Projected passing TDs per game: 1.3 (27th)

Cooper projects for 56 receptions, 689 yards, and 4.3 TDs receiving.

Takeaway: Cooper projects as a high-end WR5 with low-end WR3 upside. He ranks as the WR52 in half-PPR projections. Early drafters are taking him in Round 12 in fantasy.

Chris Bell Fantasy Projections (WR, Dolphins)

• Floor Projection: 6.3 | 7.8 PPG
• Median Projection: 7.2 | 8.8 PPG
• Xfinity Best Ceiling Projection: 8.8 | 10.6 PPG

Bell fell down NFL Draft boards coming off an ACL tear, but should be ready for the 2026 campaign. The Dolphins project as one of the worst offenses in the NFL, but the depth chart is sparse. He isn't a great prospect per the Rookie Super Model, but his YAC ability and size give him a shot to lead Miami's receiving corps in Year 1. He projects a 84% route participation rate and a 18% target share in the projection model.

Takeaway: Bell projects as a WR5 with WR4 upside. Bell ranks as the WR57 in half-PPR projections. He is coming off the board as a late-round flyer in early fantasy drafts. That makes him a potential value, and I also have him higher in my rookie ranks than consensus.

Germie Bernard Fantasy Projections (WR, Steelers)

• Floor Projection: 5.1 | 6.3 PPG
• Median Projection: 5.8 | 7.2 PPG
• Xfinity Best Ceiling Projection: 7.3 | 8.8 PPG

Bernard has a clear path to the WR3 role for the Steelers, given the depth chart behind DK Metcalf and Michael Pittman. He is a plus YAC player who could add some juice from the slot. In the projection model, he has a median route participation rate of 68% and a target share of 13%. Bernard played all over the formation in college and offers further contingency upside should Metcalf or Pittman miss time. In that scenario, he would likely earn reps in two-WR sets as a starter.

Note: This projection assumes Aaron Rodgers is the QB.

Takeaway: Bernard projects as a WR6 for fantasy football in 2026. Bernard ranks as the WR67 in half-PPR projections. He lasts until Round 16 in early fantasy drafts.

Denzel Boston Fantasy Projections (WR, Browns)

• Floor Projection: 5.0 | 6.2 PPG
• Median Projection: 5.7 | 7.0 PPG
• Xfinity Best Ceiling Projection: 7.0 | 8.5 PPG

Boston projects as Cleveland's WR3 with a 67% route participation rate and a 14% target share. That puts him neck-in-neck with Jerry Jeudy, who is at 73% and 15%, respectively. In an offense with QB issues, Boston will need to soundly surpass Jeudy on Concepcion to offer fantasy viability, and that is hard to project given the red flags in his Rookie Super Model profile.

Takeaway: Boston projects as a WR6 in fantasy football for 2026. He ranks as the WR69 in half-PPR projections, and early drafters are taking him in Round 14.

Antonio Williams Fantasy Projections (WR, Commanders)

• Floor Projection: 4.0 | 5.0 PPG
• Median Projection: 4.6 | 5.8 PPG
• Xfinity Best Ceiling Projection: 5.9 | 7.1 PPG

As of now, I have Williams projected as the WR2 behind Terry McLaurin, with a 60% route participation rate and a 12% target share. That assumes he takes over the starting slot role, which is how he was utilized at Clemson, but doesn't get too much action in two-WR sets. While he is the WR2, it remains a murky situation where he projects for a rotational role. However, the door is open to more playing time, given the lackluster depth chart in Washington. If he were to handle an 80% route participation rate—which isn't out of the question—his median projections would jump to 6.7 in half-PPR and 8.3 in PPR.

Takeaway: Williams projects as borderline WR6 but would offer WR4 upside if he earns a near full-time role. Williams is the WR73 in half-PPR projections and is coming off the board as a Round 15 of early fantasy drafts.

2026 Rookie TE Fantasy Football Projections and Rankings

Kenyon Sadiq Fantasy Projections (TE, Jets)

• Floor Projection: 6.5 | 8.2 PPG
• Median Projection: 7.4 | 9.3 PPG
• Xfinity Best Ceiling Projection: 9.3 | 11.4 PPG

I have Sadiq as the TE1 for the Jets in the projection model, but sharing some time with last year's Round 2 pick, Mason Taylor. Sadiq projects for a 72% route share with a 15% target share. He was never the focal point of the Oregon offense, which makes me hesitant to project a large target share despite his Round 1 NFL Draft capital.

Most of his historical comps in the Rookie Super Model have found top-12 success inside of three years, but this is a crowded offense with questions (See Omar Cooper above).

Sadiq projects for 58 receptions, 609 yards and 4 receiving TDs.

Takeaway: Sadiq projects as a mid-range TE2 with mid-range TE1 upside in a good runout. He ranks as the TE17 in half-PPR projections and is the TE17 off the board in early drafts as a late Round 12 pick in best ball drafts.

To see how the rest of the rookies project and where they rank, check out the Fantasy Life Projection Model.

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