3 NFL Preseason Usage Surprises
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Mike's Hard Lemonade, we dive into preseason usage surprises, QB draft strategy for 2024, and more.
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Mike's Hard Lemonade:
Week 1 of the preseason is in the books, which means it’s time to sift through the rubble and find all of the actionable nuggets for our upcoming drafts.
Fortunately, Dwain McFarland is doing all the heavy lifting for us.
Some things we saw over the weekend are hardly surprising—like Jayden Daniels balling out—but a few things are causing me to rethink some of my positions.
Here are three things from Dwain’s Preseason Week 1 Reactions piece that surprised me:
“Keon Coleman led the Bills with a 100% route participation over the first two drives with the starters. He delivered a 27% target share.”
I initially thought that Coleman—who was pretty raw as a prospect and slipped in the NFL draft—would be a slower burn to fantasy relevance, but this is a very promising development. If this usage sticks, he is a screaming buy across basically every draft format right now.
“Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett registered 63% route participation rates.”
I’ve liked Kmet as a solid mid-round TE selection, but a committee rotation with Everett now has me very spooked. New OC Shane Waldron did the same thing in Seattle, so it’s worth docking Kmet down a few pegs.
“J.J. McCarthy totaled 30 snaps and 19 dropbacks on the six drives. He looked sharp, going 11 of 17 for 188 yards with two TDs and one INT.”
Most of the reporting from Vikings camp has been that McCarthy is significantly behind Darnold, so this performance is encouraging. J.J. isn’t really a redraft target, but this should give us a confidence boost for the entire offense.
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What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Dwain McFarland: 2024 QB Strategy
- Watercooler: A massive update from Fantasy Life
QB Strategy: What You Need To Know
When developing our QB draft strategy for fantasy football teams, there are three key factors to consider:
Positional supply and demand: How many do I need, and how many are available? League scoring and starting roster requirements are enormous factors that many fantasy players don't consider.
Value: Can I target mispriced assets that offer similar value at this position later? The more confidence we have in this answer, the more we can consider not spending early picks on the position. These players become pillars within our strategy.
Draft capital allocation: How much have I spent on this position? As a rule of thumb, the more we spend earlier in drafts, the less we will invest later, and vice versa.
Using these simple concepts, along with our rankings hub—which considers your custom scoring and roster settings—we can create an adaptable framework for drafting.
Quarterback Values: Strategy Pillars
This season, there are three dual-threat QBs with high-end upside and a top-10 floor that go multiple rounds after Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson.
While we love specific player takes, having a type—or, more specifically, an archetype—is the key to identifying some of the best values in fantasy, and QBs with high rushing floors are where it is at.
🎯 Anthony Richardson | Colts
- ESPN ADP: QB6, Pick 51
- Sleeper ADP: QB6, Pick 54
- Yahoo ADP: QB6, Pick 45
Richardson only played in two complete games as a rookie, but he registered a mouth-watering 25.3 PPG. He handled 26% of the designed rush attempts, including 34% of the work inside the five-yard line (with scrambles). Those marks put him in the same company as Jalen Hurts. It was a small sample, but Richardson was known for his rushing prowess at Florida.
He struggled as a passer with a 56.5 PFF pass grade, which was on par with Bryce Young and Daniel Jones. However, we saw something similar from Hurts as a rookie (55.4), and Indianapolis added a downfield threat in Adonai Mitchell in Round 2 of the NFL Draft.
Richardson's potential passing limitations show up in the Fantasy Life Projections at 220 yards per game. However, thanks to 39.5 yards per game on the ground, he projects as the QB6. It is also worth noting that based on regression, Richardson only projects for 6.3 rushing TDs, but he had four last season.
By this time next season, there is a good chance we will be discussing Richardson in the same breath as Hurts and Lamar Jackson.
🎯 Kyler Murray | Cardinals
- ESPN ADP: QB10, Pick 92
- Sleeper ADP: QB8, Pick 71
- Yahoo ADP: QB8, Pick 59
Murray demonstrated his sky-high ceiling in 2020 and 2021 with 24.9 and 22.1 PPG. Last year, he scored 18.7 while only averaging 225 yards through the air. Murray made up for it with 30.5 yards per game rushing despite coming off of a late-season 2022 ACL injury.
With the breakout of Trey McBride and the arrival of Marvin Harrison Jr. via the No. 4 pick in the NFL draft, the Cardinals suddenly have a formidable receiving tandem. Murray flashed a big passing-game ceiling in 2021 with 271 yards per game.
I have Murray projected conservatively for 234 passing and 30 rushing yards per game. Since 2011, signal callers who have reached those marks have averaged 21.3 PPG and an average finish of QB6.
From a PPG perspective, Murray is a LOCK for a top-12 finish and is one of the few QB options with the upside to throw for 4,500 yards and rush for 600. That type of performance would make him a candidate for QB1 overall.
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