5 Things To Know For Week 17: A Trey McBride Bounceback, RB Usage Report and More
Ian Hartitz profiles the five most important things to watch ahead of the Week 17 fantasy football championship slate.
Week 17 is upon us. Reminder: Friends and family come and go, but fantasy football championship banners hang forever.
This brings us to today's goal: Five mostly fantasy-relevant things to know ahead of Week 17 that ideally will help make you both a better fantasy manager and overall person.
What are the outlier positional matchups to care about in Week 17?
What man-coverage splits can we take advantage of for Week 17?
Week 16 RB Usage Report: Injury-induced upgrades are everywhere
The DST Corner: We're jumping back on the Buccaneers ship
The Mismatch Manifesto: Biggest matchup advantages of the week
As always: It's a great day to be great.
Before we dive into the Week 17 slate, this article is brought to you by Fetch-A-Tech, service that's a Breed Apart
And now, back to our regular scheduled programming ...
1. What are the outlier positional matchups to care about in Week 17?
Fantasy Life's "Defense vs. Position" tool calculates the fantasy boost that every position receives depending on its matchup. The following players and position groups deserve legit upgrades in the ole Fantasy Life Week 17 rankings and strong consideration in close start/sit decisions thanks to a rock-solid on-paper matchup.
Commanders QB Josh Johnson vs. Cowboys (+7.2 Xfinity fantasy boost): Certainly not someone to go down swinging with in your fantasy finale if you can help it, but Johnson did clear 300 passing yards in each of his last two extended appearances … in 2021 … and earned "We're saying there's a chance" treatment from Matthew Freedman on the Week 17 rankings edition of THE Fantasy Life Show.
Cardinals QB Jacoby Brissett vs. Bengals (+3.8 Xfinity fantasy boost): Yes, Brissett's ridiculous nine-game streak finishing as a QB1 in fantasy land is over. Also, yes, *one* less-than-amazing game doesn't automatically erase his status as a quality stat compiler. While you can play the "he almost caught it" game with any QB, Brissett did have separate near-TD end zone incompletions to both Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr. that nearly elevated him to his usual top-12 heights. I'm not shying away from the veteran ahead of Sunday's smashable matchup with the Bengals, who just happen to be one of seven defenses allowing 20-plus fantasy points per game to opposing QBs.
Cardinals RB Michael Carter vs. Bengals (+5.9 Xfinity fantasy boost): Didn't dominate the backfield usage in Week 16 with Emari Demercado more involved in his second game back from injury, but still led the way and is deserving of top-24 treatment in this potential smash spot vs. the Bengals' league-worst scoring defense.
Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty vs. Giants (+4.6 Xfinity fantasy boost): It would be the most fantasy football thing ever if Jeanty duds against the Giants' league-worst defense in EPA allowed per rush after going off against one of the league's single-best defenses in the Houston Texans.
Commanders WR Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel vs. Cowboys (+8 Xfinity fantasy boost): Scary Terry hung 5-102-1 and 8-62-1 receiving lines on this group last season. I'm less optimistic about Deebo; he hasn't reached 75 receiving yards in a game since Week 5.
Jaguars WR Jakobi Meyers, Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington vs. Colts (+5.2 Xfinity fantasy boost): Meyers has been Trevor Lawrence's No. 1 option more weeks than not during the Jaguars' hot stretch, but don't be surprised if BTJ gets going again in a big way just one week removed from very respectable 3-87-0 and 4-66-1 receiving lines.
Cardinals TE Trey McBride vs. Bengals (+7.8 Xfinity fantasy boost): Picked a bad time to post season-low marks in receptions (four) and yards (27), but now gets the position's nirvana matchup in the form of the Cincinnati Bengals. May the fantasy gods have mercy on anyone facing McBride in a battle for their league's third-place prize.
Browns TE Harold Fannin (+3.3 Xfinity fantasy boost): Has emerged as a consensus top-five option at the position, thanks in large part to Shedeur Sanders seldom going elsewhere with the football.
As for the worst matchups ... Justin Herbert and his WRs have their hands full with a Texans defense that has produced bottom-three marks against the positions. Jets RB Breece Hall (NE -3.4) and Panthers RB Rico Dowdle (SEA -3.1) will have their hands full on the ground, and Bills-Eagles features the league's two stiffest defenses when it comes to limiting opposing TEs.
2. What man-coverage splits can we take advantage of for Week 17?
Every defense runs more zone than man coverage, but some still insist on using plenty of one-on-one deployment–something that can lead to big plays in a hurry … for WRs capable of taking advantage. That's the goal here: WRs who have demanded a higher number of targets against man-coverage who are facing man-heavy defenses that are also ideally bad at football. Cool? Cool.
12 defenses have run man coverage on more than 30% of their opponent's pass plays this season. Each defense's rank in EPA allowed per dropback is also listed in parentheses.
Browns (45.1% man coverage, 4th in EPA allowed per dropback) vs. PIT
Lions (41.3%, 16th) vs. MIN
Broncos (38.7%, 10th) vs. KC
Giants (36%, 22nd) vs. LV
Jets (34%, 29th) vs. NE
Ravens (33.5%, 18th) vs. GB
Eagles (32.2%, 6th) vs. BUF
Steelers (32.2%, 15th) vs. CLE
Chiefs (31.6%, 17th) vs. DEN
Commanders (31%, 32nd) vs. DAL
Colts (30.5%, 20th) vs. JAX
Patriots (30%, 11th) vs. NYJ
It doesn't take an alleged fantasy expert to figure out WRs from the Cowboys are set up well this week against the Commanders' league-worst pass defense. Additionally, I'm refraining from overly trusting Steelers and Bills WRs in their tough matchup against the Browns and Eagles, or Vikings, Chiefs and Jets WRs with Max Brosmer, Chris Oladokun and Brady Cook under center. Still, there are six actionable situations to perhaps sink our teeth into:
Patriots WR Stefon Diggs (27% target share vs. man, 20% vs. zone) vs. NYJ: Sandwiched three sub-30-yard-scoreless duds with 9-105-0 and 9-138-0 booms against man-heavy defenses in the Ravens … and Jets! Really, the only thing that's holding back Diggs is inconsistent route rates—something that shouldn't be a problem with Kayshon Boutte (concussion) and DeMario Douglas (hamstring) potentially sidelined.
Raiders TE Brock Bowers (25% vs. man, 19% vs. zone) vs. NYG: Obviously, being started for any team lucky enough to still be alive with his services, but yes: Bowers is THE heart and soul of this Raiders passing game and could have a few more chances than usual if the Giants decide to continue their man-heavy ways.
Packers WR Romeo Doubs (24% vs. man, 19% vs. zone) vs. BAL: Onside kick issues aside: Doubs caught five of six targets for 84 yards and a score last week and clearly has the trust of whoever is under center for the Packers, although it'll be tough to trust any pass catcher if Malik Willis is forced to start with a bad throwing shoulder.
Browns WR Jerry Jeudy (27% vs. man, 17% vs. zone) vs. PIT: Jeudy earned a season-high 13 targets against this group back in Week 6 … and caught five of them for 43 scoreless yards. But if you're REALLY desperate …
Broncos WR Troy Franklin (28% vs. man, 21% vs. zone) vs. KC: Will benefit from Pat Bryant (concussion) being sidelined on Thursday night against a Chiefs defense again without No. 1 CB Trent McDuffie (knee). This doesn't change the fact that Courtland Sutton is the top dog in this Denver passing game, but Franklin is a borderline WR3 in this winnable spot.
Jaguars WR Jakobi Meyers (25% vs. man, 14% vs. zone) vs. IND: As discussed earlier, all Jaguars WRs are set up well against this banged-up and bad Colts secondary, but Meyers boasts the best splits vs. man-coverage specifically.
3. Week 16 RB Usage Report: Injury-induced upgrades are everywhere
Still a bell-cow, wouldn't sweat it: RBs who didn't quite rack up a near every-down role in terms of snaps, but continued to dominate their backfield's overall touches and should continue to be relied on in fantasy lineups of pretty much all shapes and sizes, including:
Muddled committees are so lame, and the Cardinals, Panthers, Saints, Seahawks, Steelers, Titans and Commanders largely continue to insist on deploying just that. Kenneth Walker (RB20), Jaylen Warren (RB21), Kenneth Gainwell (RB22) and Michael Carter (RB23) are the only involved backs who crack my top 24; otherwise, Tony Pollard (RB25) and Rico Dowdle (RB28) are the only RBs who should be relied on with any sort of high-end confidence as long as these gross rotations persist.
Doctor, doctor, give me the news: There are a handful of injury situations that bear watching throughout the rest of the week:
Packers RB Josh Jacobs (knee): Seemingly on a bit of a pitch count, making him more of a TD-dependent RB2 than an elite RB1. Emanuel Wilson would be in the position's top 15 if Jacobs is unable to suit up.
Texans RB Woody Marks (ankle): Mid-tier RB3 in a tough matchup with the Chargers; Jawhar Jordan becomes the same if Marks is out again.
Browns RB Dylan Sampson (hand): The next-man-up if active with Quinshon Judkins (leg/ankle) done for the season. Rocket Sanders would be a low-end RB3 if Sampson remains sidelined ahead of a touch matchup with the Steelers.
Chargers RB Kimani Vidal (neck): Expected absence should open up an every-down role for Omarion Hampton—he would be a top-20 volume-based play despite a tough matchup with the Texans.
Vikings RB Jordan Mason (ankle): Likely absence is a slight boost for Aaron Jones, although we're still talking about little more than a low-end RB2 with Max Brosmer leading the offense.
Saints RB Alvin Kamara (knee): Absence resulted in Taysom Hill handling a team-high 12 carries while also racking up six targets. Kamara would be in the low-end RB2 conversation inside an improving New Orleans offense if he manages to suit up.
4. The DST Corner: We're jumping back on the Buccaneers ship
Most likely. The following defenses are awesome plays if available, but they probably aren't. My top-five groups in order of preference among groups from the 50%-75% range of availability on ESPN:
Otherwise, the Buccaneers (32%) are set up well against the Quinn Ewers-led Dolphins. While the rookie wasn't horrific in his starting debut, we did see two INTs and the sort of willingness to throw downfield (8.5-yard average target depth) that could lead to more miscues down the road. Tampa Bay hasn't been incredible this year, but they earn a DST8 standing in the Fantasy Life ranks and create enough havoc to believe a big performance could be on the way.
And if you're REALLY desperate/screwed? The Giants (9.1%) still theoretically have a lot of talent across their defensive line and face Geno Smith, who has posted NFL-high marks in INTs (15) and sacks taken (52). I would highly recommend not trusting the league's 28th-ranked scoring defense if you can help it, but hey, the Raiders are tied with the Vikings for the league's best offenses to target for opposing DSTs.
5. The Mismatch Manifesto: Biggest matchup advantages of the week
Every week, I put together my "Mismatch Manifesto" charts, which combine things like explosive plays, pressure, yards before contact, pass yards per dropback and EPA to give us one-way mismatch charts instead of always going "Offense ranks x, defense ranks y" when discussing good or bad matchups.
Each individual chart is linked below with my biggest takeaway:
Pressure: Last week was an amazing performance from Justin Herbert … against the Cowboys. I'm far less confident in the Chargers' banged-up offensive line holding up the same way this week against Houston.
EPA: The Titans, Browns and Jets profile as the three most screwed offenses this week—although Cam Ward does have a 6:1 TD:INT ratio with just three total sacks taken in his last three games. The rookie is getting better!
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