A Week 16 Quarterback Benching With Deep Fantasy Football Impact

In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Knockaround:

In an alternate reality, the Week 16 tilt between the Browns and Bengals is the fantasy game of the week.

A divisional matchup with two gunslinging QBs going back and forth for 60 minutes? Sounds like a great time.

Instead, the Browns have decided to bench Jameis Winston for … Dorian Thompson-Robinson?

What in the world?

Like, I understand the in-game benching for Winston vs. the Chiefs. He threw 3 picks and deserved to sit down for a minute.

But how in God’s name are we going back to the well the following week with a QB who has been objectively worse than Winston?

Not only does DTR sink any potential for the passing game—Jerry Jeudy and Co. are not startable this week—but he also threatens to ruin the potential production for the best waiver add of the week in Jerome Ford.

The locker room loves Jameis. Fantasy nation loves Jameis. What do the Browns think they are accomplishing by starting a lesser option?

If they are trying to prove a point, they succeeded …

Assuming the point is reminding us that there isn’t another organization in the league that makes worse decisions when it comes to QBs.

What else is in today’s newsletter?

Freedman’s Favorites: Top Plays for Week 16
Watercooler: Could the Lions get some help back soon?
Ian’s Manifesto: More on the DTR situation … and numbers to back it

Stat of the Day 12/18: Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco each had a 37% snap share against Cleveland

Just when you thought it was OK to start viewing Pacheco as a potential RB1 for your fantasy lineups again, the Chiefs went and did a full rug-pull on Pacheco’s usage in Week 15.

Week 14 had seen the third-year RB see a big bump in usage over his previous start, getting to 58% of the rush attempts and a 48% snap share (via our Utilization Report). However, his numbers took hard a dip in Week 15.

He took only 38% of the team’s rush attempts and posted a 37% snap share against Cleveland—numbers that were identical to Hunt’s. The bigger concern is that the Chiefs also don’t seem overly rushed to get Pacheco involved in the passing game, where he has shone in the past.

Samaje Perine is still just hanging out in the Chiefs' lineup every week and took 100% of the Long Down and Distance (LDD) snaps against the Browns.

It’s pretty clear that the Chiefs, who have already clinched the division, aren’t concerned with getting Pacheco a bigger workload before the playoffs begin. At this point, he’s a TD-dependent RB2 at best and likely someone you should avoid starting for the fantasy playoffs unless Hunt or Perine go down with an injury.

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AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:

🤝 A changing of the guard in Atlanta. No longer a left-handed complement.

🧐 Ian and Dwain analyze Utilization Report data and identify players to target.

🤔 Could the Lions be getting help by the Super Bowl? Bold claim.

📆 There’s a tripleheader on Dec. 28. Decent slate.

🤹 Week 16 playoff scenarios. Knock yourself out.

🙈 The Week 16 QB picture is bleak. Woof.

🔥 Need a defense for Week 16? Top streaming options.

💓 We love you Randy. Justin Jefferson with the classy celly.

Freedman’s Favorites for Week 16

Here are two of Matthew Freedman's favorite fantasy plays for Week 16. Check out his full articles and rankings for more.

Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers) at Cowboys

Since the Week 11 bye, Baker Mayfield has 5 INTs over the past four games. For the season, he has 14 INTs in 14 starts.

With Mayfield, there's always a little bit of bad with the good.

The good news is that he has given fantasy investors a baker's dozen's worth of good since joining the Buccaneers last year.

Over the past two seasons, Mayfield has an NFL-best 60 TDs passing, and that doesn't include his 6 in the 2023-24 playoffs.

Even with his 5 INTs over the past month, Mayfield also has 1,112 yards and 8 TDs passing in that span as well as 11-74-1 rushing.

In 11 games this year with No. 1 WR Mike Evans, Mayfield has had a positional fantasy finish outside the top 10 just twice.

I love the matchup for Mayfield against the Cowboys, who are No. 2 in largest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (+4.8).

For the game total, I bet over 47 in the lookahead market (logged in our free Fantasy Life Bet Tracker), and I have this game projected at 50.0 in our Fantasy Life Game Models.

This season, the Buccaneers and Cowboys have both been strong over teams in the betting market (per Action Network).

Buccaneers Overs: 9-5 | 22.5% ROI | +6.54 Margin

Cowboys Overs: 9-5 | 23.0% ROI | +2.61 Margin

I expect points in this game, and that should benefit Mayfield as the facilitator of the Bucs offense.

Subscribe to our free Betting Life Newsletter for daily guidance, best bets, and more.

Josh Jacobs (Packers) vs. Saints

Since the Week 10 bye, Josh Jacobs has had an Offensive Player of the Year-like run with 559 yards and 9 TDs on 107 carries and 14 targets in five games while edging out presumed OPOY Saquon Barkley in our Fantasy Life Utilization Score (8.6 vs. 8.5, per our industry-leading Fantasy Life Utilization Report).

Over his past five games, Jacobs has a TD and 18-plus opportunities in each one, and 100-plus yards in four of them. That's some bona fide league-winner stuff right there.

For the season, he leads the league with 18 goal-line carries.

I expect Jacobs to have similar usage and production again this week: The Packers are at home, where HC Matt LaFleur is 32-19 ATS (20.3% ROI) and 39-12 ML (17.0% ROI). They're massive favorites and likely to have a run-heavy game script. And the Saints are No. 30 in defensive rush DVOA (4.6%).

This is a total blowup spot.

MORE OF FREEDMAN’S FAVORITE RBs FOR WEEK 16

MORE OF FREEDMAN’S FAVORITES:

WRs for Week 16: Ja’Marr Chase is out of this world.

QBs for Week 16: Can Josh Allen keep his MVP run going against the Patriots?

TEs for Week 16: Is this the week Trey McBride hits paydirt?

Week 16 Ian’s Manifesto

By Ian Hartitz

Who should fantasy managers want under center between Jameis Winston and Dorian Thompson-Robinson?

Jameis and it's not particularly close, but sadly the Browns are making the switch to DTR.

Look, I understand how bad the Deshaun Watson experience has been in Cleveland. He's objectively been one of the worst QBs in the NFL over the past three seasons.

And yet, DTR is one of the VERY few QBs who you can make a compelling argument has certifiably been worse.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson among 64 QBs with 125-plus dropbacks in 2023-24:

EPA per dropback: -0.284 (62nd)
Completion percentage over expected: -12.8% (63rd)
Passer rating: 42.6 (64th)
Pass TD rate: 0.7% (64th)
INT rate: 4.8% (62nd)
Yards per attempt: 3.7 (64th)

That last number is particularly egregious: DTR's 3.7 yards per attempt is the single-worst mark in the SUPER BOWL ERA among all QBs with at least 125 career pass attempts.

The offense-wide results have accordingly been miserable. Thompson-Robinson led the Browns to 13, 12, and 3 points in three spot starts last season, failing to clear 165 yards in any of them. His lone extended appearance in 2024 featured 82 yards, 0 TD, and 2 INTs on 11-of-24 passing (45.8% completion) … against the same porous Bengals defense he might face this Sunday.

Look, Winston is clearly capable of dragging this Browns offense into the dumpster himself, but at least he's provided glimmers of hope in addition to his ever-electric pregame speeches. If the Browns' goal at this point is to simply tank, then yeah, go with DTR, but fantasy managers of Jerry Jeudy and company NEED Jameis under center in order to have any level of confidence in an upside scenario.

Jeudy would be the upside WR2 he's been for the better part of the last two months if Winston were under center; shoutout to the 25-year-old talent for being one of just five pass catchers with 1,000-plus receiving yards this season. Fantasy managers could also feel relatively optimistic about Elijah Moore, Cedric Tillman (concussion), and David Njoku (hamstring), again, if we could avoid the DTR experience.

But sadly that's not the world we live in. So, as Pete mentioned in the intro, largely avoid all associated pass catchers at all costs in Cleveland for the time being. A similar sentiment is true for the team's newfound starting RB as well.

MORE ANSWERS TO THE BIGGEST QUESTIONS AHEAD OF WEEK 16

First order of business, we have the answer to yesterday’s Trivia Quiz. There are five QBs who have surpassed Aaron Rodgers’ 14 seasons with at least 3,000 passing yards and 20 TDs: Tom Brady (20), Peyton Manning (16), Philip Rivers (15), Drew Brees (15), Brett Favre (15). Did you get them all?

Now for today’s question: Saquon Barkley will be looking to become the ninth player in NFL history with at least 2,000 rushing yards. How many of the other eight can you name? (Answer in tomorrow’s newsletter)

Players Mentioned in this Article

A Week 16 Quarterback Benching With Deep Fantasy Football Impact

What else is in today’s newsletter?

Stat of the Day 12/18: Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco each had a 37% snap share against Cleveland