A.J. Brown Fantasy Football Outlook After Trade To Patriots: A Sure-Fire WR1
The long-awaited A.J. Brown trade has finally happened. What does it mean for fantasy football and where should you target the alpha WR in your drafts?
It’s about damn time.
You know, although the Eagles were very adamant about waiting until June 1st to complete a deal, I think it’s pretty rude that they made the fantasy community wait so damn long. Nevertheless, A.J. Brown, at long last, is a member of the New England Patriots.
Finally.
Of course, we all were waiting on pins and needles for this move to materialize. I mean, people have been stacking Brown with Drake Maye for weeks, even though he was still on the Eagles roster. But after months of flirting, the Patriots and Brown are finally getting together.
So, what does it mean for fantasy football? I’m glad you asked.
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A.J. Brown’s Fantasy Football Outlook With The Patriots
Last season, the Patriots entered the year with recently signed Stefon Diggs as the team’s WR1. Having filled that role many times throughout his career, Diggs surrey would dominate the looks and playing time in a wide receiver room consisting of Mack Hollins, Kayshon Boutte and DeMario Douglas, right?
Sort of.
Throughout the regular season, Diggs led the way with a 24% TPRR and 21% target share. Solid numbers, sure, but they ranked 17th and 30th in the league, respectively. The main issue was that Diggs was far from a full-time player, running a route on 68% of dropbacks, which ranked outside the top-50 wideouts. Overall, Diggs finished as the WR21 in PPR PPG, though his floor was much lower than we’ve grown accustomed to seeing.
If the Patriots traded a first-round pick only to give Brown less than 70% of the routes, I would be shocked.
Many may view Brown’s 2025 campaign as a disappointment. And I get it. He had some really, really bad weeks, often raising concerns of how much he has left. However, despite barely eclipsing 1,000 yards, Brown still impressed in plenty of metrics last year:
- 29.5% target share (6th)
- 25% TPRR (10th)
- 14.7 PPR PPG (10th)
- 2.1 YPRR (16th)
Admittedly, his 2.1 YPRR was the lowest of his career, but, per usual, Brown was very strong against man coverage. When facing man, Brown ranked 5th in TPRR (33%), 10th in YPRR (2.7), 5th in target share (34.4%) and 6th in fantasy points per target (2.06) when facing man. If you ask me, this is still a top-tier NFL wideout, but it was pretty clear that a change of scenery and a new offense was needed for the seven-year pro.
It’s no secret that Kevin Patullo’s scheme in Philadelphia last year was, well, overstaying its welcome. That’s the polite way to put it. The Eagles passing attack lacked any sort of creativity, and they weren’t utilizing Brown in the best ways to complement his skill-set. Last year, hitches and go routes consisted of nearly 45% of his usage, with slants and crossers making up 19.2%. But back in 2024, 41.7% of his routes were either hitches or go routes, while nearly 26% were crossers or slants. Brown has always been at his best working the middle of the field, particularly on slant routes against man coverage, and making plays after the catch.
Since 2022, just look at Brown’s production off slant routes:
- 1,059 receiving yards (1st)
- 84 receptions (1st)
- 474 yards after catch (1st)
- 6.8 YPRR (1st)
I’d love to see Josh McDaniels and the Patriots get back to using Brown over the middle of the field more. And for reference, last year, Diggs ran crossing routes nearly 17% of the time, the 13th-highest rate among receivers. Of course, Brown can still make plays deep down the field, and he’s paired with a great quarterback to do just that. Last season, Maye completed 50% of his passes 20-plus air yards (3rd) to go along with seven touchdowns (6th).
Finally, Brown will likely see a bump in overall passing volume with the Patriots. Since 2022, the Eagles have averaged 31.6 rush attempts per game, the most in football. During that stretch, New England ranks 20th (26.1), and given a much more difficult schedule in 2026, expect more reliance on Maye’s right arm.
Brown should be in store for at least 25% of the targets this season. And as long as he runs more routes than Diggs did during his New England tenure, the veteran should once again be viewed as a top-12 fantasy wide receiver.
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