A.J. Brown Trade Update: Fantasy Football Fallout Of A Potential Patriots Deal
It's all but a done deal that the Patriots are trading for A.J. Brown once the calendar turns to June. What will it mean for fantasy football?
There are three guarantees in life.
Death. Taxes. A.J. Brown being traded to the New England Patriots.
Whether you want it to or not, it's happening, so why wait to break down how this move will impact our fantasy football lives?
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A.J. Brown Trade To Patriots: What Would His Fantasy Football Value Be If It Happens?
This time last offseason, we were preparing for a season with Stefon Diggs operating as New England’s WR1. And he was.
Sort of.
In his lone year in New England, Diggs accounted for 21% of the targets, while drawing a look on 24% of his routes. Solid numbers, but he was hardly a full-time player. Diggs ran a route on just 68% of dropbacks during the regular season, which ranked outside the top-50 wideouts. Overall, Diggs finished as the WR21 in PPR PPG, though his floor was much lower than we’ve grown accustomed to seeing.
Expect Brown to see even more usage than Diggs, and more importantly, more routes. I highly doubt the Patriots are giving up a future first-round pick to have Brown run 65-70% of the routes. And while Brown’s 2025 campaign is viewed as a disappointment, he still impressed in plenty of metrics:
- 29.5% target share (6th)
- 25% TPRR (10th)
- 14.7 PPR PPG (10th)
- 2.1 YPRR (16th)
Brown was also once again very productive against man coverage, ranking 5th in TPRR (33%), 10th in YPRR (2.7), 5th in target share (34.4%) and 6th in fantasy points per target (2.06) when facing man. Many thought Brown may have been washed after watching him this past season, but I strongly disagree. And the numbers back it up.
As for the fit with New England, it’s fine. You won’t see a ton of RPO pass attempts from the Patriots, which is something that has helped get Brown so many easy, pre-determined targets over the middle of the field. But the Patriots are likely to be a bit more pass-heavy than the offenses we’ve seen in Philadelphia, while the route concepts may be more suited for Brown’s skill set. This past season, just 7.7% of Brown’s routes were crossers, while Diggs was at 16.5%. Get him the ball over the middle of the field, let him beat press-man coverage, and let him make plays after the catch.
Of course, the inevitable addition of Brown signals the end of Romeo Doubs WR1 season. Doubs has always been a good, not great player, but has especially been reliable in the red zone. During his final season in Green Bay, Doubs accounted for a whopping 32% of the targets from inside the 10-yard line, the eighth-highest rate in football. He’ll likely have some usable weeks with touchdowns, but Doubs is now nothing more than a bench piece in fantasy and will drop down the fantasy football rankings.
DeVonta Smith Fantasy Football Outlook: His Time To Shine
Since the Eagles acquired Brown in 2022, “Skinny Batman” has been more of a Robin in this Philadelphia passing game.
No more.
DeVonta Smith, who has always been a great player, is set to potentially post truly elite numbers in 2026. Top-tier volume has limited Smith’s fantasy ceiling. Since 2022, Smith has posted TPRR rates of 22%, 19%, 20% and 22%. We did see a 136-target season from Smith back in 2023, leading to 95 catches, 1,196 yards, seven touchdowns and a WR9 fantasy finish. 130-plus targets should be well within reach for Smith if he’s the WR1 in Philadelphia. In five games with Brown sidelined since 2022, Smith’s averages are, as you’d expect, strong:
- 9.0 targets
- 6.2 receptions
- 87.8 receiving yards
- 16.2 PPR PPG
- 25.5% TPRR
With Brown off the field (since 2022), Smith has been targeted on 28% of his routes, which would easily be his highest TPRR rate over an entire season. Smith will be the unquestioned alpha in this offense, and between the talent and uptick in volume, he should be selected as a top-15 fantasy wide receiver, while having top-10 upside. Expect his fantasy football ADP to spike even more, too.
Jalen Hurts, Makai Lemon & The Eagles Fantasy Football Outlook If A.J. Brown Is Traded
Philadelphia has been preparing for this move for months, bringing in Dontayvion Wicks, Hollywood Brown and Elijah Moore during the offseason. And if there was any doubt whether they were going to trade Brown, that disappeared once they traded up to select rookie Makai Lemon 20th overall in the NFL Draft.
Let’s start with Lemon since he’s the most exciting. Many think it’s foolish to expect Lemon to replace A.J. Brown. And I agree. But it’s Smith who is filling the role vacated by Brown, while Lemon will operate as the WR2. And given how concentrated this Philadelphia passing attack has been, the WR2 in this offense can see plenty of looks. But will it be as concentrated in 2026?
I’m not so sure.
Since 2022, Brown and Smith have dominated the targets for the Eagles. During that span, the dynamic duo has accounted for 55%, 51%, 45% and 50% of the team’s targets. But given the current construction of this Philadelphia wide receiver room (sans A.J., obviously), there appears to be more depth than they’ve had in a while. I’d still expect Lemon to finish the season second on the team in targets, especially if they play him both inside and outside, giving him more chances to get on the field. Lemon does his best work from the slot, and there has been a lot of discourse surrounding Jalen Hurt’s willingness to throw the ball over the middle of the field. But we have to remember that the Eagles once again have a new offensive coordinator in Sean Mannion, so we don’t fully know what this passing scheme will look like.
- Dontayvion Wicks: The good? Great separator, impresses against man coverage, good size. The bad? He can’t catch. Likely has some weeks and becomes a waiver wire add, but nothing more than a late-round selection.
- Hollywood Brown: Averaged just 8.1 PPR PPG in two games without Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice in Kansas City last season. He’ll stretch the field and not much else.
Finally, this move also impacts Jalen Hurts and Dallas Goedert. It’s a downgrade for Hurts, who is already coming off a QB8 finish and failed to reach 200 passing yards 10 different times this past season. Losing a player of Brown’s caliber is unlikely to help a quarterback, but I am interested to see if Hurts improves against zone coverage this season. Brown has always been much more efficient against man, while Lemon is great at locating soft spots in zone coverage.
Goedert, meanwhile, is coming off a welcomed, yet probably fluky 11-touchdown season. Five of those scores were of the shovel pass/underhand variety, as Goedert accounted for 40.9% of the Eagles' targets from inside the 10-yard line (2nd). Expect the touchdowns to regress, but the volume should improve. And in six games with Brown sidelined since 2022, Goedert is averaging 14.4 PPR PPG.
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