Are the Bengals Poised to Bounce Back in 2024?
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by BetMGM, we break down some updates out of Cincinnati, draft strategy from the 1.07, and more.
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by BetMGM:
We’ve officially entered “best shape of their life” season with training camps underway.
But that feels outdated and tired. The new hotness is “best hair of their life” and the trend is being spearheaded by two Cincinnati Bengals superstars…
I’m not sure if Joe Burrow was going for Eminem or Ken Barbie or House Targaryen or 2004 high school baseball player on spring break, but he showed up to camp rocking a new style yesterday:
‘sup
The new haircuts don’t end there, though. In what I can only assume is buzz-cut solidarity, WR Ja’Marr Chase also showed up to camp with a fresh look:
what, no blonde dye?
I already love stacking up Burrow and Chase in drafts, but this hair correlation really seals the deal.
Our rankers have Chase no lower than fifth overall in PPR formats, while Burrow is the consensus QB7. Haircuts aside, expectations are sky-high for the electric duo.
In actual Bengals buzz, the hype is starting to build on Chase Brown, who was previously thought to be the 1B in this backfield behind Zack Moss. But when you listen to Zac Taylor talk about these two, it very much seems like it should be flipped.
Both backs remain targets—and can even be paired together—but start loading up on Brown before his inevitable rise, as his ADP in ESPN drafts remains cheap (141.6).
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Chris Allen’s tips for the 1.07 slot
- Watercooler: Training camp nuggets
Optimal Draft Strategy with the No. 7 Pick
by Chris Allen
The First Round
*Draft Settings: PPR, Standard Roster (1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1 FLEX)
Like waiting to see a movie, the seven spot can feel like you’re stuck in place while everyone else is enjoying the show. All you can do is wait for your turn and hope any goodness is still there.
Our Draft Champion tool is an easy way to set expectations.
The functionality allows you to conform the simulator to your league. And I’m not talking about just the basic settings like scoring format and number of starting positions. But if you know one of your leaguemates loves RBs or wants QBs early, the background logic can account for the preferred strategy.
I used the default settings but was not surprised by the first six picks.
Seeing these picks makes the idea of drafting less fun. I want these guys. Despite needing to start at least three WRs each week, I even made the case for opening with Breece Hall.
In any case, we need to start somewhere. Luckily, the Draft Assistant can leverage the Fantasy Life staff rankings to come up with a pool of suggestions.
Unquestionably, your league will be different. But the gist of the 1.07 is the same: All of the top-tier options are gone. The market (and the six opponents ahead of us) are forcing us to bet on the unknown. And while the top pick has some yellow flags (one, really), I’m less hesitant to make the click compared to the other options.
There’s no denying Justin Jefferson’s talent. Jefferson averaged 11.8 targets per game before his Week 5 injury. Only Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams garnered more looks from their QB. After his seven-week absence, JJettas was one of six WRs with a target share north of 30.0%. And his 2.94 YPRR ranked third out of the group. But the concern for Jefferson’s value isn’t on him. It’s his QB.
As of this writing, Sam Darnold will be the Vikings’ starter in camp. His last start came in a meaningless Week 18 as the 49ers’ gunslinger. Before that, he came on in relief on Christmas day as San Francisco got blown out by the Ravens. In both cases, Darnold’s passing success rate was over 50%, and he was pushing the ball downfield (10.1 air yards per attempt).
I recognize the small sample size, but given the connection between the Vikings and SF’s head coaches, there’s a stylistic match to what Kevin O’Connell will expect out of the journeyman QB. If KOC was still having Josh Dobbs and Nick Mullens sling it 30 times a game, Darnold should be in for a similar ride and feed Jefferson.
Besides, based on our tiered rankings, opening with any of those three WRs would be a welcomed approach.
I highlighted Tier 2 because Bijan Robinson was still available at the 1.07 (even though he routinely comes off the board one or two spots earlier).
He’d be the clear-cut choice (requiring an adjustment in my draft strategy), but I wanted to spotlight Jefferson as an optimal first-rounder. Between those two and Garrett Wilson, we’ve got a multiverse of rosters to build.
- Team 1: Justin Jefferson
- Team 2: Bijan Robinson
- Team 3: Garrett Wilson
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